24-09-2003 12:26									#121
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What about them?

	24-09-2003 13:04									#122
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd Unfortunately, a campaign in Third Reich is much simpler than running the actual war. Spain wasn't going to join the war without major Axis victories, and major Axis victories would have greatly minimized the usefullness of the Spanish. The Germans needed Spain when the couldn't get them, and couldn't have gotten Spain when they didn't need them.

How could reality be more complex than Third Reich?

We (the Axis players) simply rolled Spain right after we rolled France. There was a variant chit that allowed for Spain to join the Axis, but we were never lucky enough to draw it. The Med was cut off in 1940, and the Brits seriously weakened enough that it was our lake by 1942. This resulted in a very substantial reduction in our front, as all we had to do was defend the Atlantic beaches from any attack by the Anglo-Americans.

You can argue that attacking Spain may not have been realistic for the Germans and Italians, but however Gibraltar is taken it is devestating for the Allies.

	24-09-2003 13:19									#123
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THe med strtergy is interesting but it would also force the UK to change tactics. In 1940 they were trying to fight an offensive war, if the germans went on the offensive then much more effort would have gone into fighting a defensive war. The navy would have concentrated much more on sinking german/italian supply ships.They may also have considered abondinig the far east or drasticly reducing the numbers.

The other point is would the US stand by and let Spain enter the war, that might have threatened the carribean and South American security.

Takning Gibraltar would of course be devasting for the UK, they may though have treid an invasion of Spain to create a buffer zone round Gibraltar if they got wind of an attack(through enigma) of course this would have huge political implications.

	24-09-2003 13:45									#124
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quote: But, of course we are all familiar with the EVEN DUMBER mistake Japan made and that was attacking the United States.

It's been mentioned earlier in the thread, the reasons for the Japanese Southern strategy, to get oil and rubber from Indonesia, since the American Oil Embargo seriously weakened the Japanese military.

Look on a map. How are you going to get to Indonesia, or the Dutch East Indies from Japan? You have to go through the Phillippines, and through good ol' General McArthur.

Just because the Japanese bring the Americans into the war in Dec of 1941 has very little bearing on the Germans IF the Nazis can knock out Britain. A British surrender, and we may see an American return to an Isolationist policy since Germany did not threaten American territories.

Now, looking at France, the Germans under Hitler did not need to conquer all of France to force a surrender, just part of the country, what would be the breaking point of Britain?

There are two ways that I see, either would work if applied consistently. You can go through the Mediterreanean or you can do an all-out blitz and pull the trigger on Operation Sealion.

Supply seems to be the biggest problem with the Mediterreanean scenario, and is not a problem with operation Sealion. All you need here is the control of the Channel, which I don't believe the Nazis were able to accomplish.

After finishing France, how long would it take for Hitler to group enough forces for an invasion of Britain?

	24-09-2003 13:45									#125
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AH,

I agree that the shifting of German air power to the Med would have done wonders for reducing the effectiveness of Britain's sea power. It's a small body of water with a lot of Axis air bases around it. It would have been very difficult for the Brits to have moved in the Western Med, which is one of the main reasons why the first Anglo-American offensive was to clear Morrocco. The Eastern Med would have been a tougher nut to crack, but by shutting down the Western entrance to the Med the troops in the Eastern Med would have been in much more dire straits than was the case in reality. Yes, there were numerous British assets East of the Suez, but much of the war supplies necessary to carry on the war were only available in quantity from Britain or North America. These would have had to make their way around the Horn.

	24-09-2003 13:54									#126
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quote: Originally posted by Jon Miller I bought the newest Third Reich has anyone tried it (it is the post Avalon Hill one) Jon Miller

I have the 4th edition, but it's old.

	24-09-2003 13:56									#127
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quote: Originally posted by Andrew1999 Well, he couldn't get enough supplies (especially gas) across the Med and through Africa for 3 divisions, so I suppose 7 of those 10 would sit in Tripoli and Benghazi and play cards.

This would have been a different matter in 1940 with the Brits defending their own supply lines rather than attacking the German supply lines. The increase in German air power alone would have given the supply convoys a good deal better chance of getting through, as they could have shrunk the safe portion (for the Brits) of the Med considerably.

	24-09-2003 15:53									#128
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander I have the 4th edition, but it's old.

I heard that was a good one

I just bought the 5th or later (the board looks a lot different, as is several other things (but than my previous edition was 1st so a lot can change in that ammount of time))

Jon Miller

	24-09-2003 18:27									#129
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse On transit rights - Sweden, a far more neutral country than Franco's Spain, allowed German troops to transit its territory.

Sweden didn't rely on seaborne food imports.

	24-09-2003 18:30									#130
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse But I think its a bit of laugh for some people on this thread to suggest Franco could care if Spanish people starved. He did a lot worse than that during his rule but always made sure his own supporters were looked after. Franco would have p*ssed his pants if Hitler had put the pressure on.

If Franco had let them starve theyd have rebelled again, and Franco and Hitler would have faced a guerilla war, threatening Germanys supply lines for its assault on Gibraltar. Not that the supply lines were that great to begin with.

	24-09-2003 18:35									#131
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse The supply thing is actually a non issue. If the Axis had put appropriate resources into the Mediterranian they would have easily achieved air superiority and been able to control the sea lanes. The role of the British navy would have been nullified by the combination of air power and the loss of bases. Taking Gibraltar, and thus the involvement of Spain, is not actually essential to the success of the strategy. If Britain loses Alexandria and Port Suez, its Western Mediterranian fleet is also neutralised and can be effectively bottled up. Its main role then is to prevent a break out of Axis of naval forces, particularly Italian capital ships, into the Atlantic.

Could you please lay out your point of departure, and your timeline - (the way folks do on Soc.history.what-if)
Otherwise its vary difficult to analyze your timeline.

When does Hitler turn to the med. When and how many units does he send? When does he take Alexandria, etc. Otherwise its hard to look at what the brits had available to counter, etc.

Or better yet go take a look at SHWI to get a better idea of some of these issues.

	24-09-2003 18:40									#132
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quote: Originally posted by TheStinger THe med strtergy is interesting but it would also force the UK to change tactics. In 1940 they were trying to fight an offensive war, if the germans went on the offensive then much more effort would have gone into fighting a defensive war. The navy would have concentrated much more on sinking german/italian supply ships.They may also have considered abondinig the far east or drasticly reducing the numbers. .

excellent points. One of the problems with most what ifs of that sort is that the posit a change in German strategy without considering the allied response. Note that even as early as 1940 the Brits were starting their won strategic bombing campaign over Germany. If things start to go badly in the Med, they will shift forces their - and if Germany shifts bomber resources away from the Battle of Britain, the Brits can shift fighter resources to the Med. And of course if their position in the Med is threatened in 1940 or early '41, they will take more substantial risks in the Pacific. If the US insists (as in OTL they did) that UK keep substantial forces in the Pacific, then UK will ask US for more help in the Atlantic/Med theater.

	24-09-2003 18:44									#133
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quote: Originally posted by DanS One of the arguments for the validity of the Mediterranean strategy was that this was where the Allies put most of their early resources. It shows that the Allies thought they were vulnerable there and it was worthwhile to shut off the possibility of just such a strategy.

1. Well they were vulnerable. A loss of Alexandria would have been a humiliation for the British Empire, and would have led to the fall of Churchills govt. Doesnt mean it would have been fatal, or that the Germans could have taken Iraq.

2. Once Britain began to shift to the offensive, this looked like the best place. Where the AXIS was most vulnerable, and where Brits strengths in sea power could be most effectively used. note that once the US was in, the US tended to push AGAINST a med strategy for the allies, while the Brits pushed FOR it, leading to not inconsiderable bad feeling.

	24-09-2003 18:46									#134
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander AH, Yes, there were numerous British assets East of the Suez, but much of the war supplies necessary to carry on the war were only available in quantity from Britain or North America. These would have had to make their way around the Horn.

You mean the Cape of Good Hope. Cape Horn is tip of South America.

IIRC mostly they went around Good Hope in OTL (original time line, IE actual history)

	24-09-2003 19:13									#135
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quote: Just because the Japanese bring the Americans into the war in Dec of 1941 has very little bearing on the Germans IF the Nazis can knock out Britain. A British surrender, and we may see an American return to an Isolationist policy since Germany did not threaten American territories.

I don't think the Germans had it in them. They were spoiling for a fight with the US. I'm not sure why.

	24-09-2003 20:00									#136
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Heritage of baron von Sacher-Masoch?

	25-09-2003 04:33									#137
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark If Franco had let them starve theyd have rebelled again, and Franco and Hitler would have faced a guerilla war, threatening Germanys supply lines for its assault on Gibraltar. Not that the supply lines were that great to begin with.

What nonsense

Contrary to the Hollywood myths partisan activity was never much more than a bit of an irritant for the Axis with a couple of exceptions.

Franco shot or jailed just about everyone who could mounted a serious threat to his regime before the war even started.

Following the fascist economic policy of autarky, he also kept most of the population on the edge of poverty and starvation right up until the 1960's and yet no serious threat to his rule ever emerged.

	25-09-2003 06:32									#138
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Something everyone is forgetting is that the Nazis were acutely aware of the growth of Stalin's armed forces. They knew that the purges of the 1930s had greatly weakened the Soviet army, and that the bulk of Soviet equipment, tanks and planes were still obsolete in 1941. The Soviets were rapidly replacing their officer corps and replacing their obsolete tanks with the formidable T-34. New airplanes were on the designing board also. Hitler calculated that if he were to have a chance to defeat Stalin he would have to do so by 1941 at the latest. This was probably the real reason why Germany never seriously pursued the invasion of Britain or he conquest of North Africa - there simply wsn't enough time.

If Hitler had put off his invasion of Russia, then, well, there must have been a reason for Stalin's massive military build up. Germany might well have found itself fighting a defensive war in the east. Another consideration that must have entered his mind was that the subjugation of Russia was one of his main goals, second only to the eradication of European Jewery. If he waited too long Stalin's army might have become too strong to overcome, and then he would never realize his dreams. You know that man Hitler, he always was a dreamer. "Springtime for Hitler"?

Last edited by Dr Strangelove on 25-09-2003 at 06:41

	25-09-2003 06:51									#139
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi It's been mentioned earlier in the thread, the reasons for the Japanese Southern strategy, to get oil and rubber from Indonesia, since the American Oil Embargo seriously weakened the Japanese military. Look on a map. How are you going to get to Indonesia, or the Dutch East Indies from Japan? You have to go through the Phillippines, and through good ol' General McArthur. Just because the Japanese bring the Americans into the war in Dec of 1941 has very little bearing on the Germans IF the Nazis can knock out Britain. A British surrender, and we may see an American return to an Isolationist policy since Germany did not threaten American territories. Now, looking at France, the Germans under Hitler did not need to conquer all of France to force a surrender, just part of the country, what would be the breaking point of Britain? There are two ways that I see, either would work if applied consistently. You can go through the Mediterreanean or you can do an all-out blitz and pull the trigger on Operation Sealion. Supply seems to be the biggest problem with the Mediterreanean scenario, and is not a problem with operation Sealion. All you need here is the control of the Channel, which I don't believe the Nazis were able to accomplish. After finishing France, how long would it take for Hitler to group enough forces for an invasion of Britain?

Yeah, Japan was resource starved.

But I mean, SURELY there was a better and more creative way that they could have come up with more resources. I would think it would have only slowed down the pace of their advances, not leading to their defeat. Nobody was even a threat to them at the time.

Taking on the most resource rich nation on the entire planet in order to try and get more resources is kinda a big net loss.

	25-09-2003 07:07									#140
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The facts are right Doc but the analysis isn't quite. Hitler believed an attack on the Soviet Union would be an easy victory, for a number of reasons including ideological.

His famous quote in 1940 when explaining decision to his generals was, "kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse".

	25-09-2003 07:10									#141
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quote: His famous quote in 1940 when explaining decision to his generals was, "kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse".

It very well could have if the psycho had held the Einsatzgruppen back and let the Russians embrace the Germans as liberators. Should've saved the extermination of the untermensch for after the war.

	25-09-2003 07:12									#142
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Yeah he could have added a couple of million fighters to his ranks.

	25-09-2003 07:24									#143
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Even if Britain fell, Churchill would just continue the war from Canada :shrug:

	25-09-2003 07:27									#144
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and we all know what a fearsome power Canada is.....

	25-09-2003 08:00									#145
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Hey!

We had the third largest navy by the end of the Second World War.

Just because we have a weak military now, does not mean that Canada has always had a small military.

quote: But I mean, SURELY there was a better and more creative way that they could have come up with more resources.

Not that many sources of oil and rubber. Without either one, your vaunted war machine grinds to a halt.

	25-09-2003 09:24									#146
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Back in WW2 I was a Sea Man!

	25-09-2003 12:09									#147
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark You mean the Cape of Good Hope. Cape Horn is tip of South America. IIRC mostly they went around Good Hope in OTL (original time line, IE actual history)

I was actually referring to the Horn of Africa, but you make a good point.