21-11-2003 03:35									#61
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quote: i don;t see the US going too for Taiwan, no matter what rabid folks in Congress think.

Yeah, no oil

	21-11-2003 03:41									#62
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As MtG said, its follow the money.

	21-11-2003 04:06									#63
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-China full steams ahead, pissing off the whole world and launching us into armaggedon.
-China full steams ahead, but even the US doesn't have the balls to go against its party favors supplier.
-China backs off. This becomes (is?) a cycle--every few years, China insults Taiwan's manhood, and every few years, Taiwan tells China to shove it.
-China backs off and everyone gets along in harmony forevermore (except the US, which can't seem to quit collapsing mideast regimes for some reason.)

	21-11-2003 04:10									#64
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Taiwan rattles their cage every fews years and CHina yells shut up or I'll beat ya some more. Neither side seems to really mean it. It's just how they say "I love you," to each other.

	21-11-2003 05:44									#65
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Someone here mentioned Taiwan wasn't a democracy. Myself being ignorant on the issue, could you please explain why this is so?

	21-11-2003 05:50									#66
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Taiwan

China

So let it be written, so let it be done.

	21-11-2003 06:40									#67
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quote: Originally posted by Whaleboy How much lead do I need for a bomb shelter in my garden?

Two light-years ought to work fine.

	21-11-2003 14:47									#68
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Taiwan = China =

PR China = Red China =

	21-11-2003 15:09									#69
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Taiwan is certainly more deomcratic than China.

If they want to decalre independence I can't see what it has to do with China

	21-11-2003 15:10									#70
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China doesn't want them to, that it has to do with them.

Get real, people. Good start might be visiting a lecture of Prof Keck

	21-11-2003 15:24									#71
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Ok I'll rephrase, ethicaly or morally what has it got to do with China

	21-11-2003 20:03									#72
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Taiwan rattles their cage every fews years and CHina yells shut up or I'll beat ya some more. Neither side seems to really mean it. It's just how they say "I love you," to each other.

Good man. There's the whole situation, in a nutshell.

There's so much trade between the two nations that if one or the other actually did something to upset the status quo, both economies would take a serious blow.

So let's compare them to a husband and wife who argue all the time, but don't want to let go of the fantastic sex life that nobody else knows about.

	21-11-2003 22:09									#73
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Don't you mean Formosa?

	21-11-2003 22:18									#74
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Or even Pescadores...?

	22-11-2003 04:46									#75
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Hmm ... I suppose in the worst case scenario, Taiwan and China could take on the roles of Chechnya and Russia, respectively. And we all know what that's led to.

Gatekeeper

	22-11-2003 05:19									#76
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so will we see a taiwanese girl blowing herself up in the forbidden city?

	22-11-2003 05:54									#77
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The whole thing is silly. Taiwant should declare independence and Israel should annex the West Bank. Let's live in the real world. China won't do ****.

	22-11-2003 05:56									#78
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TCO, I doubt that Taiwan will declare independence. However, I am a bit more pessimistic about what China would do if they did.

	22-11-2003 06:57									#79
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I'm not sure China COULD do anything, other than massive missile bombardments of Taiwan. And doing that would sorta defeat the purpose of going to war in the first place - sure, you probably destroy Taiwan, but in the process wreck a major trading partner, and EVEN IF you are able to re-annex Taiwan, you have a multi-billion dollar rebuilding program.

	22-11-2003 07:01									#80
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David, the last thing they would do is use a massive missle pummeling. They would invade and take Taiwan with as minimum loss of life and property as possible.

	22-11-2003 07:03									#81
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Right, but that's my point - the PRC does NOT have enough amphibious assets to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan's ground forces are probably sufficient to overwhelm any PRC landing, before the PRC can reinforce it.

The ROC also has a MASSIVE air defense belt, that would severely hamper PRC air strikes.

	22-11-2003 08:08									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Nah, it's time to drink now. To Taiwanese independence, of course...

In the history of Taiwan, they have never been a part of China. They should be the Country of Taiwan.

Read their history.

Joseph

	23-11-2003 00:40									#83
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd Right, but that's my point - the PRC does NOT have enough amphibious assets to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan's ground forces are probably sufficient to overwhelm any PRC landing, before the PRC can reinforce it. The ROC also has a MASSIVE air defense belt, that would severely hamper PRC air strikes.

With sufficient air power, China could force a successful landing even with minimal amphibious capability. They could use their missles as a preemptive first strike to take out the Taiwanese airforce and airbases. The airforce would then blow the Taiwanese navy out of the water and "prep" the battlefield. After a few weeks of this, the landing would be a walkover.

If this sounds a lot like American tactics, well I think everyone has been studying the two Gulf wars.

	23-11-2003 00:58									#84
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stick to civ

	23-11-2003 02:15									#85
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quote: If this sounds a lot like American tactics, well I think everyone has been studying the two Gulf wars.

So you're in. Then what? The US can hardly control an enemy whose biggest weapons are rocket-launching donkeys.

Technological superiority is meaningless in days of asymmetrical warfare. Economic warfare would be another story, forget invading, simply cut off trade and seize assets.

	23-11-2003 02:57									#86
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Smiley, I don't think China can strangle Tawain economically. It will not let it go. They have said they will use force, and I believe them. The US has said that we do not support an independent Tawain. This is a clear signal to China that we will stand by if they invade as a result of a declaration of independence by Taiwan. In fact, our position here is almost identical to our position with Iraq just prior to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. We said that we do not get involved in "border disputes" among Arab states. Saddam took this as a green light. I think we have given China a similar "green light," making an invasion likely.

	23-11-2003 04:39									#87
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How do you strangle Taiwan with the position of China now? They can't intercept trade to or from Taiwan, with their navy, and their Air Force would never be able to defeat Taiwan if they only attacked economic targets. Look at the Battle of Britian. The British won because the Luftwaffe did not continue to attack the RAF airfields. Same thing will happen to Taiwan if China attacks only economic targets.

	23-11-2003 05:04									#88
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Many Taiwanese companies do business or have factories in China. Without even interfering with trade with other nations, it would but a serious damper on the economy.

	23-11-2003 08:27									#89
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quote: Originally posted by Smiley Many Taiwanese companies do business or have factories in China. Without even interfering with trade with other nations, it would but a serious damper on the economy.

So? Taking Taiwan's factories only forces them to build factories at home. It is a setback they can absorb.

Further, without the intellectual leadership from Taiwan, those Chinese factories would soon be useless to the Chinese. They would be producing parts that no one wanted.

	23-11-2003 08:44									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Smiley, I don't think China can strangle Tawain economically. It will not let it go. They have said they will use force, and I believe them. The US has said that we do not support an independent Tawain. This is a clear signal to China that we will stand by if they invade as a result of a declaration of independence by Taiwan. In fact, our position here is almost identical to our position with Iraq just prior to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. We said that we do not get involved in "border disputes" among Arab states. Saddam took this as a green light. I think we have given China a similar "green light," making an invasion likely.

I'm sure the Chinese noticed the policy reversal on that one as well. Everytime China appears to mobilize an American Carrier appears in the Strait. Obviously a mixed message and probably by design...on one hand we tell PRC that we support one China and on the other we show Taiwan that we will be there.

The deeper problem may be the technological assets that Taiwan has...way beyond what PRC has. Can US allow that to fall in PRC hands? Not to mention the fact that we sell Taiwan some of our most sophisticated weapons. It all comes down to which is the best of two terrible options at the time. You can bet the PRC is continually evaluating the pros and cons for us getting or not getting involved.