30-12-2003 02:49									#61
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quote: Originally posted by Tripledoc Ok. There has been a general demand in electic power all over the Us in recent years. This has to do with: a) the scandal that many elderly people have in the recent summers died from heat exposeure. b) the subsequent demand for air conditioners, which swallows huge amounts of energy. c) the demogaphic development which means a need for more air conditioners for the elderly, and the rise in single person households. d) the general effects of Global Warming.

(a, and b) Not that many (unless you're thinking of France ), and in a majority of cases that did occur, you have record temperatures / humidity, which normal building and design practices wouldn't take into account, as HVAC design is typically to 95% or 98% design conditions. In any event, residential air conditioning loads are not a major component of summer on-peak electric demands, in comparison with commercial and light industrial/mixed AC loads.

(c) This has little to do with load growth anywhere in the US - most load growth in the last 20-30 years has been a combination of economic displacement and movement, followed by general commercial rate class growth, followed by new residential expansion - industrial loads, ag loads, and expansion of existing residential loads have been much smaller factors, particularly with the trend in housing replacements towards more efficient appliances and elimination of all-electric residential designs.

(d) To the extent that global warming has effected utility issues, the effects have been on fuel oil and gas prices, not electical supply. Economic activity, aging of existing resource base and population migration has had a far far higher effect on electirical supply.



Oh, and BTW, Cheney, who I can't stand, had no significant interest in California's electrical restructuring, and neither he nor Halliburton had any role to speak of in the process or it's aftermath.

	30-12-2003 02:53									#62
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quote: So everytime you have meeting, the public needs total acces.

When did I say this? I said Dean can't call out Bush for a secret meeting on energy when he had the same thing. It's like when he railed against Bush closing his Texas record, when he did the same thing with his Vermont record!

	30-12-2003 03:03									#63
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If I was Bush, I'd want to steer discussion away from environmental policy at all costs. His environmental record is appalling and whatever Dean did, he'll look like Ralph Nader in comparison. He better hope like hell there isn't another environmental wake up like there was in the seventies, or he's toast. He's on borrowed time anyway, the global warming evidence continues to mount and soon it will reach a tipping point.

This is a storm in a teacup. Dean allowed the press to know who was at the meeting, Cheney did not. Cheney's meeting was probably full of corporate criminals, Dean's was not.

Anyway, it will be fun if Bush wins. Fun to watch a proud democracy go fascist (that's not much of an exaggeration) and fun to watch the rest of the world quietly line up against the US as the biggest threat to the continuance of civilization.

edit: Bertram Gross wrote a book on how the US might go fascist over twenty years ago. I was reading it the other day, some of it is quite prescient.

	30-12-2003 03:07									#64
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: So everytime you have meeting, the public needs total acces. When did I say this? I said Dean can't call out Bush for a secret meeting on energy when he had the same thing. It's like when he railed against Bush closing his Texas record, when he did the same thing with his Vermont record!

You're mistaking form for substance. There are no allegations of ethics violations and misconduct against Dean's committee, while corporate lawyers are alleged to have not only written the Bush energy policy but also demanded the removal of an Administration energy leader who wouldn't do what Ken Lay wanted.

While I'm not happy abuot the secrecy in Vermont, the secrecy in Washington is hiding corruption.

	30-12-2003 03:11									#65
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quote: ...most load growth in the last 20-30 years has been a combination of economic displacement and movement, followed by general commercial rate class growth, followed by new residential expansion

I suppose you by that mean, amongst other things, the growth in single person households. Check Nation Master.com and see that the US is the leader in that regard. Now is that a result of an increasing number of non-spouse persons of all ages, or a growth in number of elderly people who have lost their spouse?

	30-12-2003 03:14									#66
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quote: Now is that a result of an increasing number of non-spouse persons of all ages, or a growth in number of elderly people who have lost their spouse?

Buildings (housing units, commercial sites, etc) are what A/C's cool, not people. If an elderly woman loses her spouse, that does not increase the number of housing units at all. However, when 4 kids leave the nest over a span, that does increase the number of housing units needed, especially if they marry late. If a couple get divorced, same thing. So the first part of your question is the right answer, not the second.

	30-12-2003 03:18									#67
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Robert Kennedy Jr has an interesting and well written critique of the Bush environmental record in a recent issue of Rolling Stone. I recommend everyone read it.

And if anyone wants to accuse RS of being unashamedly liberal they are right. It must be one of the few liberal publications out there.

	30-12-2003 03:22									#68
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quote: Originally posted by Tripledoc Like I said. There is a SIGNIFICANT difference between a power OUTTAGE and a powevr SHORTAGE. The first one can happen in the most over-supplied area, the second one is evidence of an endemic degradation of public infrastructure. Now, the US had a power outtage in the East, while in the West, in California, there was/is a power shortage. That is due to the corporate hijacking and capitalization of the electricity sector.

You really don't have a clue. There never has been a significant public generation presence in California (although 30% of the state load is served by municipal and public utility districts, they are primarily wholesale market purchasers, not generators.

California's electricity shortage was caused by a large number of factors, primarily by overreliance on out of state imports, compounded by a combination of historically artificiailly low wholesale power prices and high regulatory hurdles.

Add population growth, an economic boom, sustained droughts in all three major hydroelectric basins in the western US, record temperatures, excessively deferred maintenance on peaking assets (from 10-20 years back into the pre-dereg days) and a few other things besides, and you have a disaster whether you had corporate gameplaying or not. It's just a whole lot more fun to blame Enron (even though Dynegy, Southern and Duke were just as bad in their effect) than it is to look in depth at the long-term planning and regulatory failures of the preveious couple of decades.

quote: Similarly there is in California a SEVERE water shortage. Whether this has to do with the vast amounts of golf courses of the rich which needs constant irregation, or the immigration of people from Mexico is relevant, as I can foresee where the guilt is going to be placed according to which political affiliation that person has, who is in fact making that assertion, whatever it may be.

Or whether it has to do with extended cyclical droughts, and 30-odd million people living mostly in what is reclaimed desert.... California's water politics mostly revolve around the north blaming the evil southern Californian's for stealing Delta water, and all the non-ag water users blaming the ag sector for it's purportedly excessive water use.

Totally different set of politics for California water issues.

	30-12-2003 03:26									#69
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara There are no allegations of ethics violations and misconduct against Dean's committee, while corporate lawyers are alleged to have not only written the Bush energy policy but also demanded the removal of an Administration energy leader who wouldn't do what Ken Lay wanted. While I'm not happy abuot the secrecy in Vermont, the secrecy in Washington is hiding corruption.

Interesting... allegations are as good as facts to you

	30-12-2003 03:26									#70
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Doesn't that all boil down to poor planning, Michael?

	30-12-2003 03:27									#71
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quote: Originally posted by Ming Interesting... allegations are as good as facts to you

Works for the repugs.

	30-12-2003 03:28									#72
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From a recent AOL article:

quote: WASHINGTON (AP) - Casting aside Howard Dean's plea to tone down their criticisms, the other Democratic presidential candidates said Monday that revelations the former Vermont governor had an energy task force that met in secret like the Bush administration is further proof he is ill-suited to challenge the president next fall. ``The more we learn about Howard Dean's record as governor, the more difficult position he'll be in to criticize the Bush administration,'' Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman said, responding to an Associated Press story Sunday. AP reported that though Dean has demanded the administration release the secret deliberations of Vice President Cheney's 2001 energy policy task force, Dean as Vermont governor convened a similar group in 1998 to restructure the state's electric utilities that met in secret, to the dismay of state legislators. Dean called the comparison ``laughable.''

	30-12-2003 03:28									#73
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Read my sig, Triple. It'll save you some embarrassment.

	30-12-2003 03:29									#74
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quote: Originally posted by JohnT Buildings (housing units, commercial sites, etc) are what A/C's cool, not people. If an elderly woman loses her spouse, that does not increase the number of housing units at all. However, when 4 kids leave the nest over a span, that does increase the number of housing units needed, especially if they marry late. If a couple get divorced, same thing. So the first part of your question is the right answer, not the second.

Granted, that follows. However I think it not controversial that people today generally live longer than they did before. Hence what I think is interesting is if with the expanded life, we can see at the same time an expansion in elderly people who live alone, because they have lost their spouse. I would think so. Also with the development of numerous elderly homecare institutitional organisation, and the development of new technology and medicine which make it feasable for the elderly to hold the fortress so to speak, and not be kicked into an elderly care home, I see the basis for a further growth in the demand for energy than we have seen before. And that is in addition to general population growth and increase in capital.

	30-12-2003 03:31									#75
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quote: Originally posted by JohnT Read my sig, Triple. It'll save you some embarrassment.

Why? I am for once getting some valuable information.

	30-12-2003 03:32									#76
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quote: And that is in addition to general population growth and increase in capital.

But living longer is one of the variables that account for general population growth. You can't separate the two.

	30-12-2003 03:33									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Tripledoc Why? I am for once getting some valuable information.

True. But don't expect to seriously challenge him on this topic... he knows his shiite.

	30-12-2003 03:37									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Tripledoc I suppose you by that mean, amongst other things, the growth in single person households. Check Nation Master.com and see that the US is the leader in that regard. Now is that a result of an increasing number of non-spouse persons of all ages, or a growth in number of elderly people who have lost their spouse?

No, I mean the flow of people (all household types) from one area of the country to other areas, following population trends. For example, California's population growth has been primarily migration from other states, rather than resident population increase, while states such as Montana and Wyoming have had downward population growth trends for most of the last twenty years - net migration out of state has been high enough to still surpass native population growth.

From an energy use standpoint, single person households aren't that significant because most of them live in multi-unit housing with little or no additional net energy consumption compared to an equivalent number of people in either a larger multi-unit dwelling. Detached residences (i.e. houses instead of condos or apartments) are the least energy efficient per capita, particularly in heating and cooling applications, due to the relatively large external surface area of the dwelling per resident.

	30-12-2003 03:43									#79
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Re: the AOL article

I get it now. The New york Times is supporting Lieberman.

	30-12-2003 03:47									#80
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quote: Originally posted by Oncle Boris What's the matter? Neither I or Dean or anyone with the least brains can deny Osama's responsibility. It's the extent of this responsibility that needs to be determined in a fair trial. Now, I suppose it is what we should understand from Dean's statement. And no, logics tell us that there can't be more proof in someone admitting his guilt than in someone denying it.

Two problems:

1) Anything done through the UN will not have the Death Penalty -- which IMHO makes the Hague and the ICC permanently useless for trials involving War Crimes or Crimes against Humanity, as these offenses desperately require the Death Penalty to provide an effective deterent and punishment.

2) 9/11 was a crime agains the United States. We should have the first opportunity to try and execute the bastard.

Dean's statements on OBL (and for that matter, Saddam) are little more than OUTRAGEOUS.

	30-12-2003 03:49									#81
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MichealtheGreat.

Geographic labour mobility has been a symptom of American capitalism for well since since the ineption of the U.S.A.

This would have been planned for, since it would have entered into the statistics. The rise in single person households is a new socially determined factor which has perhaps not entered any calculation(?)

	30-12-2003 03:59									#82
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quote: While I'm not happy abuot the secrecy in Vermont, the secrecy in Washington is hiding corruption.

So the secrecy in Washington is hiding corruption, but you are totally sure that the secrecy in Vermont has nothing to do with corruption.

Yeah.... ok.. .

	30-12-2003 04:05									#83
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Well, duh!

"Governor Dean confronted and averted an energy crisis that would have had disastrous consequences for the citizens of Vermont by bringing together a bipartisan and ideologically diverse working group that solved the problem,'' spokesman Jay Carson said Sunday.

"D1ck Cheney put together a group of his corporate cronies and partisan political contributors, and they gave themselves billions and disguised it as a national energy policy.''

	30-12-2003 04:05									#84
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Imran: The Dean mystique isn't about him. It's about hatred of Bush. I doubt you'd get Sava or che to say anything bad about the man even if you had a videotape of his accepting bribes.

	30-12-2003 04:08									#85
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Yeah, I figured as much. I had hopes that the far left or left-leaning independants would see through Dean's crap and realize he's as sleazy as the guy they despise.

	30-12-2003 04:09									#86
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Wasn't the Constitutional Covention held in secret. I wonder how the founding fathers would have fared if the Convention was televised on CNN.

	30-12-2003 04:12									#87
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Doesn't that all boil down to poor planning, Michael?

Not necessarily. Some of it certainly does, but there's no clearcut answer to the question of how much does the consumer pay for what level of reliability? Even if you take the corporate plundering out of the picture, you had a convegence of demand, capacity and economic issues that isn't likely to hit California that severely in the next fifty years or more.

Expecting sustained droughts across half a continent, including poor snowfalls in the winter, to coincide with record population and economic growth, coupled with the hottest average summer temperature on record to that date is the sort of thing that would have ratepayers and regulators screaming about goldplating and consumer gouging. Part of it really comes down to a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation where you can't afford so much redundancy in system capacity, because nobody will pay for the excess capital outlay.

If you look at California now, there are unused peaking plants all over the place that are never getting called on. A huge number of planned projects that were part of the last minute crisis planning have since been abandoned at various stages of development, and the state has a significant overcapacity once again, even though very little (about three percent of normal annual peak demand) new capacity was added from 1999 to 2003. That three percent added capacity is tiny, when you consider that California now has about 27% overcapacity, and minimum reserve requirements are about 15% overcapacity.

	30-12-2003 04:15									#88
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Yeah, I figured as much. I had hopes that the far left or left-leaning independants would see through Dean's crap and realize he's as sleazy as the guy they despise.

You have discovered one case of 'sleaziness', which frankly is somewhat reactionary since it is obviously a response to the accusatons of Cheney's sleaziness. It's the usual " he did it, so why can't I do it too?" routine.

Can you present anyone with further evidence of Dean's socalled sleazyness. Some sleazyness which does not serve the purpose of making a relativization out of Repblican sleazyness.

	30-12-2003 04:17									#89
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quote: Originally posted by Ming Interesting... allegations are as good as facts to you

Allegations warrent investigation.

	30-12-2003 04:19									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui I said Dean can't call out Bush for a secret meeting on energy when he had the same thing. It's like when he railed against Bush closing his Texas record, when he did the same thing with his Vermont record!

I agree with this.