18-06-2004 19:02									#91
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quote: Originally posted by Cruddy We already have the veto on defence, tax and social welfare.

If we still have them by the end of the weekend. The French believe they've made enough concessions already. Though I doubt Blair would be stupid enough to agree to anything crossing his red lines, because the people will simply vote it down.

quote: Originally posted by Cruddy Up to 55% of our trade. That's a lot of bread. Of course, we'll only know EXACTLY how much by doing it.

Most likely a lot less than 55%. IIRC, EU trade is just under 50% of our trade, and most of that will remain. However I do agree we'll still lose some.

	18-06-2004 19:03									#92
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue What would prevent us having a free trade agreement with the EU, like other non-EU European states do?

Even if others do, it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be granted it. We can't take it for granted. Most UKIP voters seem to think we can just leave the EU and keep the free trade, but it isn't that easy.

quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue Have you heard of the WTO?

A paper tiger that has inordinate trouble enforcing even the most obvious of it's rulings. With a strong WTO, I'd make leaving the EU easier. Not that the EU always enfoces it's rules (French ban on British beef, for example) but i had more power than the WTO.

quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue We aren't leaving the free trade area. Are you aware of any other European countries that trade freely with the EU without being part of it?

Not with complete removal of tariffs, such as the Common External Tariff, no.

	18-06-2004 19:04									#93
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"However I do agree we'll still lose some."

Why?

	18-06-2004 19:05									#94
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quote: Originally posted by Cruddy Hmm... you mean, we would starve before they did? Sorry, not going to risk that possibility.

I don't know where you got that from. What he means is that protectionist measures, tariffs and the like, will hit the EU harder than they'll hit us, and would likely aid our balance of payments deficit. However both sides would lose some trade and thus jobs, efficiency and GDP, though the EU would be hit hrder than the UK, as they would lose more exports than imports.

	18-06-2004 19:08									#95
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"Most UKIP voters seem to think we can just leave the EU and keep the free trade, but it isn't that easy."

Why not?

And when it comes down to it, entities like the WTO and EU only have as much power as governments are willing to give them.

	18-06-2004 19:12									#96
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quote: Originally posted by Cruddy Hmm... you mean, we would starve before they did? Sorry, not going to risk that possibility.

I don't know where you got that from. What he means is that protectionist measures, tariffs and the like, will hit the EU harder than they'll hit us, and would likely aid our balance of payments deficit. However both sides would lose some trade and thus jobs, efficiency and GDP, though the EU would be hit hrder than the UK, as they would lose more exports than imports.

	18-06-2004 19:17									#97
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"I don't know where you got that from. What he means is that protectionist measures, tariffs and the like, will hit the EU harder than they'll hit us, and would likely aid our balance of payments deficit. However both sides would lose some trade and thus jobs, efficiency and GDP, though the EU would be hit hrder than the UK, as they would lose more exports than imports."

Which, all in, means that we will be quite suited to remaining in a free trade area with other European countries. There's no reason for us to be out of one, nor for them.

	18-06-2004 19:18									#98
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "Most UKIP voters seem to think we can just leave the EU and keep the free trade, but it isn't that easy." Why not?

Because we don't have that option yet. We need to renegotiate a free trde agreement. We can't just remove the political entity and keep the fee trade without talks. We don't already have an independant free trade agreement, as UKIP seemed to try to claim.

	18-06-2004 19:21									#99
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"We don't already have an independant free trade agreement, as UKIP seemed to try to claim"

I don't think you've yet to actually say how the EU benefits us apart from the free trade aspect of it that we have outside of it.

	18-06-2004 19:24									#100
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "However I do agree we'll still lose some." Why?

Because removal of the political entity could stir up badwill in other EU nations who then buy products from different nations instead. When we're not part of the EU, we don't get sole rights to Chedder Cheese, for example, so copycats can be made. Also without the political integration some cross border work will be harder, due to the different regulations in place and the lack of industry harmonisation. Add to that the lower inward investment, as countries wanting to have a base inside the EU, to keep inside the external tariff, will more likely relocate to an area with the same industry, currency and trading rules as the rest of the EU, than the UK, meaning we'll import their goods, rather then exporting them to the EU.

	18-06-2004 19:26									#101
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue Which, all in, means that we will be quite suited to remaining in a free trade area with other European countries. There's no reason for us to be out of one, nor for them.

Spite. They'll at least hold it up, just to annoy us for leaving the EU. Them not being happy with us has a direct impact on us, and we can't guarantee they won't cut their nose to spite their face.

	18-06-2004 19:28									#102
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "We don't already have an independant free trade agreement, as UKIP seemed to try to claim" I don't think you've yet to actually say how the EU benefits us apart from the free trade aspect of it that we have outside of it.

Which has nothing to do with my point. We don't have the free trade aspect outside of the EU, unless we negotiate for it. We can't simply leave the EU and have the free trade agreement stay in place, since they're intrinsic. We would have to cancel the alliance and then get another free trade agreement. We don't have a free trade agreement independant of the political integration already in place. We only have one as part of the political integration, and wile it is likely we'd be able to negotiate one, we cannot assume so, since it is their decision.

	18-06-2004 19:28									#103
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"Because removal of the political entity could stir up badwill in other EU nations who then buy products from different nations instead."

How likely?

"When we're not part of the EU, we don't get sole rights to Chedder Cheese, for example, so copycats can be made."

So we'll be able to make champagne and parma ham too?

"Also without the political integration some cross border work will be harder, due to the different regulations in place and the lack of industry harmonisation."

Whatever this means...

"Add to that the lower inward investment, as countries wanting to have a base inside the EU, to keep inside the external tariff, will more likely relocate to an area with the same industry, currency and trading rules as the rest of the EU, than the UK, meaning we'll import their goods, rather then exporting them to the EU."

Ah the old "inward investment" argument - if we don't do this, if we don't do that "we'll lose inward investment". Well guess what, it's completely fallacious.

	18-06-2004 19:48									#104
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If the UK left EU Brussels would have even more authority on it. That's why it stays despite what its populace want.

	18-06-2004 19:50									#105
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"If the UK left EU Brussels would have even more authority on it."

	18-06-2004 19:52									#106
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That's the expression you'll have when Croatia beats you too my little frued.

	18-06-2004 19:54									#107
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I'm not your frued

	18-06-2004 20:01									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "Because removal of the political entity could stir up badwill in other EU nations who then buy products from different nations instead." How likely?

Very. Think how the French acted towards the US over Iraq. Now make that an area with 50% of our trade. We'd easily lose 1 or 2% from it.

quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue So we'll be able to make champagne and parma ham too?

IIRC, Champagne is a worldwide trademark. But yes on Parma Ham. However Champagne of quality can't be made here. Cheese can be made anywhere.

quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "Also without the political integration some cross border work will be harder, due to the different regulations in place and the lack of industry harmonisation." Whatever this means...

It means that MNCs with offices in the EU and the UK will find harmonisation harder, due to different regulations, laws and standards. This will cause a lack of investment in countries coming into the EU (they'll choose elsewhere) as well as disrupting UK companies trading in Europe, due to different standardisation.

You're an economics graduate that doesn't understand what industry harmonisation is and how it benefits multi-national companies?

quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "Add to that the lower inward investment, as countries wanting to have a base inside the EU, to keep inside the external tariff, will more likely relocate to an area with the same industry, currency and trading rules as the rest of the EU, than the UK, meaning we'll import their goods, rather then exporting them to the EU." Ah the old "inward investment" argument - if we don't do this, if we don't do that "we'll lose inward investment". Well guess what, it's completely fallacious.

It isn't. You think companies are *exactly* as likely to choose the UK for their Europe base, when wanting to enter the EU, if we have different industry regulations, different standards and different laws? Or do you think this *might* prompt them to think of other countries, when they were wavering about the UK or another nation?

I used to work for Texas Instruments at their European Headquaters, in the UK. They said, if the UK came out of the EU, it would make standardising their operations with their EU production and sales bases so hard that they would relocate to inside the EU. I know how hard it is, standardisation of their financial systems was my job.

Sure, it's just one company, but if they thought that way, surely some others must. Every company that leaves the UK like that, takes quite a few jobs with it. And that's a company actually deciding to relocate if we left, not just one deciding which nation to enter. Add to that the drop in inward investment to the UK as a % of total EU inward investment from 28% to 5% since the Euro launched, as someone posted earlier, and the 'fallacious' argument that the Euro and EU are good for inward investment seems to have legs to stand on. A simple dismissal of all this evidence as fallacious doesn't.

The argument isn't fallacious, but you're unwavering belief that no-one will be annoyed with us if we leave, that no company will see being out of the EU as a problem for them, and that no company benefits from any EU standardisation is quite remarkably naieve, IMHO. If the EU would give us a free trade area, if companies didn't see deharmonisation as a problem for cross-border work, if inward investment wouldn't be swayed to the EU and if the EU citizens wouldn't try to spite us by choosing other products, then you'd have a point. That's a hell of a lot of unfounded assumptions though. Indeed one of which, companies not leaving the UK, I know to be false.

	18-06-2004 20:09									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue IIRC, Champagne is a worldwide trademark. But yes on Parma Ham. However Champagne of quality can't be made here. Cheese can be made anywhere.

Not sure what you mean by world wide trademark. Sparkling wines made in California and New York are routinely labeled Champagne. (even when not made Methode Champagnois, which is the real scandal) UK cant make quality Champagne, but they CAN import Corbell, etc from California, and if the French dont negotiate, it can be labeled Champagne, instead of sparkling wine.

	18-06-2004 20:20									#110
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I'm sure UK could leave EU and still be part of the free trade area. You would probably just have to do like Norway: have the EU rules (which you would no longer be able to influence) forced down your throat and pay billions upon billions to the French farmers every year

	18-06-2004 20:40									#111
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Exactly. Which we don't want. I think we should have used Iraq, the constitution, and just about anything else we can, as a bargaining tool to rid us of the CAP. I'd even agree to break our red lines on defence and foreign policy if we removed the CAP.

Down with evil legislature!

	18-06-2004 20:46									#112
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quote: Originally posted by Combat Ingrid I'm sure UK could leave EU and still be part of the free trade area. You would probably just have to do like Norway: have the EU rules (which you would no longer be able to influence) forced down your throat and pay billions upon billions to the French farmers every year

I'd just like to quote that so my confusewd little freud Park Avenue might be able to finally understand what I said.

	18-06-2004 20:49									#113
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How would French farmers extract billions out of us?

	18-06-2004 20:52									#114
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You would have to pay EU a huge fee (from which a large part goes to the French farmers) to be allowed into the free trade area.

	18-06-2004 20:55									#115
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"You would have to pay EU a huge fee (from which a large part goes to the French farmers) to be allowed into the free trade area."



When they have more to gain from us being in it? What bollocks.

	18-06-2004 20:58									#116
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They don't.

	18-06-2004 21:09									#118
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue When they have more to gain from us being in it? What bollocks.

Do you seriously believe the French farmers would let you in unless you paid them generously? What bollocks.

	18-06-2004 21:12									#119
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Rooneys.

	18-06-2004 21:13									#120
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"Do you seriously believe the French farmers would let you in unless you paid them generously?"



It's a free trade area. Therefore there's no need for transfers and stuff like that.