 |
|
Lincoln
|
|
BTW, What is your policy? Turn tail and run or allow Saddam to continue hanging people by their toes while he laughs at the UN? Maybe we should have let France solve the problem with their threat of veto "regardless" of what the rest of the UN agrees to. What is your plan to fight terrorism? I would love to hear it so I can ridicule it. It must be fun to throw stones at the efforts of someone else. Is it, or do you do it reluctantly?
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
lord of the mark
|
 |
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:37
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Sava
So Fezcarlo, if you want to debate this... then stick to the facts. If I say Allawi is unpopular and a US-puppet... then post something supporting your point of view. |
Most evidence ive seen indicates that opinion on Allawi in Iraq is divided between supportive and "wait and see" this includes reports from the main stream media, including NPR. It also included the recent poll which we've already discussed.
as for being a US puppet, thats pretty subjective. I mean there are people here who think Blair is a US puppet. Its pretty clear Allawi received support from CIA (but before that from MI6 why doesnt anyone call him a UK puppet?) Its also clear, that like all exiles receiving US support, he was playing his own game. Its not clear whether his "coup" against Brahimi was with or against the US - particularly difficult to discern since the US admin was itself divided on Brahimi - Blackwill for, neocons skeptical at best - and the CIA - I havent heard. Certainly moving forward hes going to want good relations with the US - but thats logical, given his political situation. I expect his relations with the US the next 6 months to be quite nuanced - certainly enough so for simpleminded extremists on all sides to paint him as they will.
The key questions are going to be the timing and structuring of elections. Many key pundits from all over the spectrum would like to see early elections - thats tied in with legitimacy concerns, and the freedom to make more permanent changes in Iraq that an interim govt cant make. Allawi was quoted as talking about delaying past jan, but quickly stepped back from that. Some neocons, notably Michael Rubin, have been attacking an outgoing Bremer order establishing Prop Rep in a single nationwide constituency. I dont see anyone taking this argument up, however.
why the turnover 2 days early
some ideas ive seen
1. Zarqs guys were going to use the date of the turnover to coordinate countrywide attacks. "oops, thats already happened. What do i do know - boom today, boom on Wednesday as planned, or wait till later? Gotta check back with HQ
2. Gonna be some big booms anyway. With Bremer already gone, cant make the case that Bremer was fleeing the booms
3. Allawis about to come down very hard - martial law, attack Fallujah, etc. Every day sooner, the better.
4. If the booms happen anyway, its harder to say the booms are against an occupation that no longer exists
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Lincoln
|
|
Fifteen months. Do you know how many months it took to stabilize Europe after WW2? How about Japan? Fifteen months is nothing. Tell me it was a faliure in three years and you may have a point.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Lincoln
|
|
You should read up on Japan and Germany and the rest of Europe just after WW2. The transformation of Japan was remarkable in itself under occupation but it took quite a few years. Don't give up hope for Iraq yet. I have to go to work now so see you later. My apologies if I offended you. I do get a little hot sometimes.
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
Ramo
|
 |
Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:37
|
|
quote:
The key questions are going to be the timing and structuring of elections. Many key pundits from all over the spectrum would like to see early elections - thats tied in with legitimacy concerns, and the freedom to make more permanent changes in Iraq that an interim govt cant make. Allawi was quoted as talking about delaying past jan, but quickly stepped back from that. Some neocons, notably Michael Rubin, have been attacking an outgoing Bremer order establishing Prop Rep in a single nationwide constituency. I dont see anyone taking this argument up, however. |
PR is practically inconsequential compared to the rest of the problems Iraq faces; I'd say that free and fair elections, PR or not, at this point would be somewhat optimistic. The real issue will be marshal law. And how anyone's going run an election campaign under marshal law, under the eyes of a revived Mukhabarat. And how Iraqi civil society will respond to it. And what Allawi will do if someone like Sistani takes a stand against it. And whether Allawi will take a que from his ideological compatriots in Syria, and have a 40-odd year period of marshal law.
What puzzles me is why Jaafari called for marshal law. There's no point in him delaying elections given that he'd likely be PM after free elections in Iraq. And his agenda ain't going to prosper under Allawi's marshal law (or maybe there's been a deal made, who knows). Motivated by desperation maybe, but he ought to know better.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
lord of the mark
|
|
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:37
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ramo
quote:
The key questions are going to be the timing and structuring of elections. Many key pundits from all over the spectrum would like to see early elections - thats tied in with legitimacy concerns, and the freedom to make more permanent changes in Iraq that an interim govt cant make. Allawi was quoted as talking about delaying past jan, but quickly stepped back from that. Some neocons, notably Michael Rubin, have been attacking an outgoing Bremer order establishing Prop Rep in a single nationwide constituency. I dont see anyone taking this argument up, however. |
PR is practically inconsequential compared to the rest of the problems Iraq faces; I'd say that free and fair elections, PR or not, at this point would be somewhat optimistic. The real issue will be marshal law.
LOTM - I assume you mean martial law. Marshall law is something they mainly have in Texas, I think.
And how anyone's going run an election campaign under marshal law
LOTM - I assume the plan is to impose martial law in limited areas, and to move past sufficiently before the elections.
, under the eyes of a revived Mukhabarat.
LOTM - The mukhbarat will have to be used against violent insurgents, and against foreigners, and live within the rule of law. Vetting will be important.
And how Iraqi civil society will respond to it. And what Allawi will do if someone like Sistani takes a stand against it.
LOTM - he'll have to work WITH Sistani. I think Sistani is not happy with the state of lawlessness in Fallujah, though I could be wrong.
And whether Allawi will take a que from his ideological compatriots in Syria
LOTM - Come now, Allawi left the Baath decades ago, and was almost killed by the Baath. Hes no more an ideological compatriot of Syria than Yeltsin was an ideological compatriot of Castro.
and have a 40-odd year period of marshal law.
LOTM - very unlikely, IMHO.
What puzzles me is why Jaafari called for marshal law.
LOTM - perhaps the continued murder of Iraqi civilians by the insurgency has something to do with it. I would particularly point to the murder and mutilation of 6 Shia truck drivers in Fallujah.
There's no point in him delaying elections given that he'd likely be PM after free elections in Iraq.
LOTM - I dont think he sees martial law as delaying elections, but as a step toward the security needed to bring elections forward.
And his agenda ain't going to prosper under Allawi's marshal law (or maybe there's been a deal made, who knows). Motivated by desperation maybe, but he ought to know better. |
From what I have been reading, the main reason Iraqis are SO disillusioned with the US is our failure to give them security. The greatest danger to their civil liberties on a day to day basis comes from insurgents, bombs, criminals, kidnappers, and other non-state violence.
Martial law can encompass a host of measures - from quite reasonable ones, to full fledge dictatorship. I think we need to see what Iraqis mean by it before trying figure out the motivations of different politicians.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Xeones
|
|
slight troll.... but
What about the flag? Do you all remember the announcement of the New and Improved Iraqi flag? Y'know? The one that looked somewhat like the Isreali flag?
Well in all the photos I see of the turnover ceremony, they're standing in front of rows of Saddam's Iraqi Flag! Ack! I guess the new sovereign govt made their first choice?
Anyone else catch this? Did I just miss a news report titled: "Stupid New Flag Idea Shot Down Over Iraq"?
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Ramo
|
|
Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:37
|
|
Yeah, martial law. Sometimes I think I'm dyslexic. 
Yes, obviously security is a huge concern. That's what I meant by the desperation comment. But I don't think the situation is extreme enough to warrant martial law, and I don't think most Iraqis buy the idea (which is why the INA is still only a party of exiles).
And I don't trust Allawi in the least. And would not trust him with a police state. Seems like nothing more than a moderate Saddam.
quote:
Come now, Allawi left the Baath decades ago, and was almost killed by the Baath. Hes no more an ideological compatriot of Syria than Yeltsin was an ideological compatriot of Castro. |
There's hardly a single conception of the Ba'ath, and certainly paranoia is an omnipresent feature in Saddam's Ba'ath. Anyways, his party is connected to other Ba'athist parties, and is built from Ba'athists, especially from the army. And he's been calling for a police state for a while.
quote:
I assume the plan is to impose martial law in limited areas, and to move past sufficiently before the elections. |
I wasn't aware that a plan has been publicly released yet.
quote:
he'll have to work WITH Sistani. I think Sistani is not happy with the state of lawlessness in Fallujah, though I could be wrong. |
He also seems to be pretty weary about delays and obstructions to elections.
quote:
very unlikely, IMHO. |
Saying what is or isn't likely is absurd, given that he's just taken over the country. Just throwing out a possibility.
|
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:37.
Apolyton Time is 00:37. |
top of page
|
| archivepost |
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
28-06-2004 23:15
)
.
|