25-08-2004 01:18									#1
	Turn 229: 1140 AD Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Defense Plan, first iteration. Comments please!
Aeson's comments, mostly implemented now


Start

- GoW sends 500 gold. Accept. Still are 1K short of their payment. CH, the best time to receive flight would be in 2 turns, on T231. Which means MZ should send it on T230, so next turn (not this one, which they will receive tomorrow).
- Sending Mot transp to GoW

- RP sends 100g + WM. Sending Steel+WM in return, can't send horses. Next turn the rest of the tree towards Lego already is.

- EotS builds tank, start tank.

- Bolderberg builds DD, starts DD.

- Tempest builds Tank. starts Tank

- Typhoon builds Tank. starts Tank

- Arashi builds tank. Starts tank (should be changed to palace next turn, during demob.)

- Monsoon builds tank. Starts tank.

- WoC builds Tank. Starts Tank.

- SA builds tank. Starts tank.

- 1255 gold, 50%, 508bpt, -327 gpt. (radio in 1 of 6) /4800 beakers collected.
Modern Era Tech Cost

- slider set to 40% happiness. If I got it right, this won't be necessary, but in case something goes wrong, and ND doesn't send us any lux next turn, we will retain WLTKD in all, but 2 cities (I think): Elipolis and Inchoff. (possibly SA if I can't get it shuffled right) 30% is no option, as it will also get cities like WoC out of WLTKD, which is too costly.

scenario for the bug solving next turn:
- ND declares war by bombing a unit on our coast.
- They immediately offer peace and a lux to us, accepted.
- We get the turn. First of all, diplomacy. We receive peace, and the lux.
- We end diplo, and discover radio.
- Enter F1, set Arashi to palace, tweak slider(should be possible to go to 20% if the lux arrives), mobilize again.
- Close F1
- Builds occur normally in all cities, without mob bugs, and with the updated lux situation (hopefully, otherwise I should cycle through all cities to update it).
- after initial phaze, offer a lux for lux deal with ND. As they will be offering their lux in return, which we'll accept before production next turn, no need for the slider any more: set to 0%.


shortrushes
- disband knight and MI in SA. 27 shields, which means the tank will end at 103 shields next turn. The remaining knights are to be kept for this city, otherwise the short rush is less efficient by using 3 MI, or by shortrushing to settler.

forces
(- 3 knights, 12 MI, 2 galley)
- 14 art
- 35 workers (+0/turn)
- 3 settlers (+.53/turn)
- 20 rifle
- 57 inf
- 34 tanks (+ 7.25/turn)
- 12 galleon
- 15 destroyer (+1.08/turn)
- 10 transports (+0/turn)
- 2 carrier
- 3 sub (+0/turn)
- 1 explorer (+.05/turn)

- Strong in strength to GoW, to ND, and to Lego.


Moves

- mine EotS 6, 63, 41

- mine Monsoon 6

- irr Monsoon 3

- irr SA 3

- Tornado 21 forest is of no use, sadly enough: there is no wonder available to prevent the chop going to Sufa. Will have to wait until CIA becomes available, or the end of mob

- 3 forest remains, 1 near Tornado, one near SA / D-ville, one near Inchoff / WoC. I'm saving those, as currently there is no good use for them right now.

- 7 new tanks to 7 East coast cities.
- Southern Sub moves 222
- Northern sub moves 632. Vox has that part of its coast completely covered with infs and arts. Cities are empty. The sub ends its move in Voxian waters, but who cares... he won't be spotted
- Other sub moves 668
- DD from Bolderberg automoves to replace Galleon near Hurricane
- Galleon pestering Lego near their coast auto-moves to Sufa.
- all the rest fort, extra workers on the coast included.


workforce shuffles

- EotS takes back river fur from Hurricane, gives river plain instead.

- Arashi moves off 2 grasses closest to Monsoon, takes floodplain and tax man instead.
- Monsoon takes grasses instead of sea
Monsoon has enough reserve to give the hill to WW again next turn.

- Blizzard gives grass to SA, takes coast instead. While taking another coast instead of desert would make 1bpt, I'm not doing it now... insurrance against pollution, as the 1 bpt would go to waste anyway
- SA takes mountain instead of sea. Together with all the improvements, it makes 76 spt

Current Builds
long term plans for our cities

Eli : tank in 1
Inchon : aqua in 1 (explorer next)(add workers in 2 turns?)
WoC : tank in 1
Inchoff : transport in 1(tanks next, when solving the bug it should get to 25 spt)
D-ville : tank in 1
Santa Ana : tank in 1.
Blizzard : destroyer in 1.
Monsoon : tank in 2
Arashi : tank in 1
WW : tank in 1
Tempest : tank in 1
SS: settler in 1 (shows 2)
Hurricane : tank in 1
OG : DD in 2
EotS : tank in 1
Bolderberg : DD in 2
Cyclone: settler in 2
Tornado : tank in 1
Typhoon : tank in 2
Sufa : Explorer in 1. MI rush next towards another one?


Diplo

- our incense for gems (GoW) deal expires next turn. As I understand it, I can't offer them incense as I already gifted them MT. Which means they will need to offer gems to us next turn, we add incense to the deal, accept, and send it back to them. We will be without gems for one turn, nothing to be done about that. CH, could you please tell this to MZ, that they make sure they offer us gems unaccepted this turn, and nothing else? Flight the turn after...

I'm uncertain if I need to set the slider to 50%... maybe best, if my understanding is not off, I've got the chance to correct it anyway.


Other

- ND has its frigate close to OG again, so it can bombard one of our units.

- in F11, we're #3 in production at 937(last turn 900). productivity 1738, #3 (last turn 1876).

- Lego is starting to learn how to be more efficient in building stuff: Jackson is in the red, either compensating for pollution, or to tweak the spt more precisely (I think the first one). So, Jackson, one their major cities, is currently at most at 60 spt for DD builds.

Next Turn

- see above for plan on ending the war

- set Inchoff to tank, irr and mine a tile, and see if we get to 25 spt (otherwise it will be 24spt).

- build radar towers... if nobody comes up with a better plan, the one pictured in the defense thread will be used. We don't really have the luxury to build more towers, but these can always be added afterwards.

DeepO

	25-08-2004 01:26									#2
	Got spare money?

I am in chat with MZ NOW!!

I can ask him to send us the Gems, I can ask him to gift the gems.

	25-08-2004 01:35									#3
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Done, I'll have the spammy chat logs if anybody wants them. Mostly small talk...

	25-08-2004 01:36									#4
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

just a quick calculation: what will our forces be in 10 turns (we'll have 12 turns most likely before we need to embark, as we'll need to wait for GoW)

- 77 MI (given enough gold)
- 14 art
- 105 tanks (will probably be 65 tanks, and 40 marines)
- 10 settlers
- 2 explorers. Is a bit low, we should probably change a city to pure explorer builds (WW?)

- 23 transports
- 25 DD
- 2 carrier
- 3 sub
(and 2 galley on the Bobian coast)

Further, every bomber built is one less tank. This can in part be done while our navy is under way, to rebase at D-day. Every fighter is roughly 1 tank as well, which we'll need to build before hand (as they need to go on the carriers). So count 55 tanks ready for invasion

Force composition can change, but don't wait too long to ask!

DeepO

	25-08-2004 01:38									#5
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Krill,

the problem is that as long as we don't get a gem for gem deal running with them, we'll need to redo that deal every 20 turns... if we have a gem for gem deal, it automatically renews without bugs occuring.

DeepO

	25-08-2004 01:41									#6
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quote: Strong in strength to GoW, to ND, and to Lego.

Wow. I love it.

-Arrian

	25-08-2004 01:41									#7
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gem for gem? I'm not 100% sure, but don't you mean gem for incense?

	25-08-2004 01:46									#8
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erhm... right... gem for incense of course

Oh, and Arrian, that's already the case for 3 or 4 turns. GoW is growing heavily in power though, and at this rate will soon surpass us. But as long as Lego doesn't build too many infs, I'm happy

DeepO

	25-08-2004 06:50									#9
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holy crap that's a huge army for our tiny landmass.

impressive

	25-08-2004 13:36									#10
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Yeah, I liked it too. It's one thing to plan for it, but quite another to see that army grow. Next turn, another 10 tanks are built. For 20 cities, most of which are using more sea tiles then land tiles, that's not bad at all.

I can hardly wait to ship that army over to Lego, and do some damage...

DeepO

	25-08-2004 14:47									#11
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Oh, a question: if anyone is in the mood to find out if Lego and Vox already have Espionage, please be my guest. It would be quite the information if we would discover Lego is spying on every move we make. However, I think they're also eyeing GoW

DeepO

	26-08-2004 00:14									#12
	Full PM-box? Change here!

I would prefer a higher number of Marines than 40. They aren't going to be as useful as Tanks after, but we have to break through a coastal city with Marines for any of our Tanks to be effective. 40 Tanks will take the cities we need to the first turn.

Even after the landing Marines will make decent defenders and garrisons. Plus if a good number survive we can continue taking and threatening coastal cities so that Lego has to remain spread out. That will make our numbers of Tanks more effective.

I'm still not sold on the Fighters. Do we have an airport yet? That's another 2 Tanks/Marines. We could have another full transport of Tanks/Marines instead of the Fighters.

	26-08-2004 00:33									#13
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higher number of marines: It's something I was thinking on too. The 40 marines is based on the simulations Vulture made, in that they have a 90% chance to defeat 10 infs, forted, in a metropolis non-hill city (IIRC) without art support. But seeing our military buildup, I'm not so sure that we're not underestimating Lego's defences. They could very well have more then 10 infs in the threatened cities, seeing as we have such a number already in Hurricane, WoC and Elipolis. (Tornado and Sufa coming close).

Fighters: maybe we don't need a full squadron, but a few scouts would really be welcome. Perhaps not on D-Day, but surely later on, to protect our reinforcement transports. These wouldn't need an airport. However, main issue right now is that we've built 2 carriers already, these exist. Not using them would be a bit of a waste.

However, they could also join our fleets, as empty decoys... or e.g. with 1 fighter each to do some scouting.

DeepO

	26-08-2004 01:49									#14
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Yes, let's build more marines. The question is, how many?

How about 56 (7 full transports). That leaves us with 49 Tanks, yes? Pollution may eat a couple of those, but there isn't anything to be done about that.

-Arrian

	26-08-2004 02:59									#15
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

56 marines... to get the same 90% chance, that would mean roughly 14 infs to beat.

Take into account that, in case we build fighters or bombers, the number of tanks goes down. But it should be roughly 50 tanks (without air units).. probably a bit lower (we also need to build the CIA, costing 4 tanks).

Pollution shouldn't have a big effect, though... this projection is for 10 turns, I more expect us to have 12 turns, even more (can't be a lot more, though)... every turn is close to 8.5 tanks in total.

What do you guys think about the naval forces?
- The transports, 23 of them, should be enough to carry 184 units in total. That's more than enough, so we've got a few empties as decoys and to set up a chain quickly. But more could be built if neccessary.

- carriers and subs: I take it we've got enough of them. Subs are only intended to be scouts, 3 should just barely cover the Lego coast. Carriers: we'll use air forces from captured or freshly built cities, so no more need for them.

- but 25 destroyers... is that enough, too much, too few? From the start, I've got to say that 2 of those DDs can't be expected to join the invasion force, as they will be built too far from Lego (takes 2 turns to catch up, ideal for reinforcement). So 23 DDs, to deal with let's say some 10 picket ships (ironclads, transports, DDs), and to protect 23 transports... how does that sound?

Last question: we've got 77 MI if all our defenders are upgraded. That's not terribly much, considering that we need to defend our home, and our invasion troops... how many should enter an invasion force, and do we need more for our own protection?

DeepO

	26-08-2004 03:21									#16
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Ho many we need for home defense will be largely dependant on how big of a surprise the invasion is to Lego.

IOW if they are not coming for us as we head out and do not detect us immediately we should not face a massive attack at home.

If we go on the basis that ND and GoW are in on our side and send a fair size force, we do not need a great deal of defenders at home.

Will we still have pickets or recons, so we do not get surprised? If so we should be able to use our rails to make up for any shortages at home.

Lego will not have that capacity if all three of us land in more or less unison.

	26-08-2004 10:21									#17
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The Carriers can be (air superiority) decoys and help protect the fleet.

We probably will be hitting a non-metro Sandonorico, so what are the odds on that? Also, isn't Quanto on a hill? So we could expect a metro-hill there. Again, what are odds on that?

I would say upgrade 5-10 MI for back home after the war has started and espionage is taken care of (or if Lego is threatening a landing). Marines will not have an easy time taking out MI so we need a few to "show" forted on any split cities if Lego does come with a landing party, and then can back them up with upgraded Inf as needed.

10-15 MI for the invasion. Park 3 on any Tank stacks left in the open, and 3-4 MI in any city we keep. Then back them up with Inf. If it goes as planned, that would give us a port and inland city to hold (6-8 MI) along with tank stacks near the FP gateway city (if necessary) and the FP city itself (6). 10-15 Inf should be sent. They aren't going to do us a whole lot of good over there until we have a Barracks up and cash to upgrade anyways.

That would leave us with 50 Inf/MI back home. It's obviously not enough to keep us safe from any planned invasion, but should be enough if Lego decides to go out with a bang and loads up to go hit us on the spur of the moment (read low numbers of Marines).

We need to save a lot of cash for spy missions, which is why I recommend so few MI at first. Anyone familiar with the mechanics of planting a spy in PBEM? (I don't even remember how it works in SP very well..) Does the other team get a message if you fail? Can you just keep trying if you fail or is there a waiting period?

	26-08-2004 10:38									#18
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So we'll have:

23 Destroyers
23 Transports
100 Marines/Tanks
15 MI
15 I
2 Explorers (should be enough considering that Conqs will be along too)
6 Settlers

That gives us 7 free transports? Take those further S near Quanto 1144, Put 5 Destroyers and on the stack... so if Lego is going to sink ships it would be best to try and sink those 12. Maybe pull their Bombers/Fleet that way instead of our main attack force.

I think that would be enough to give us a diversion of at least some effect. Especially in regards to swinging Lego's troops towards Quanto instead of Sand or Fork. Set it up so only Quanto can be hit by both groups, while keeping them honest in Abilene and the city down on the tip of the continent (no name in the screenshot).

That gives us a split on 5 cities. If GoW can get a few more we should be in good shape. The cost is that we can't include more units in the initial landing, but we will be pretty close as it is to sending all we can send.

	26-08-2004 11:02									#19
	Put an end to popups!

I was thinking that it would be unwise of Lego to send last ditch at us anyway. This is because we are not so close to them and should have time to defend.

A last ditch from them can reach Bob quickly. If they do not have the troops out to sea already, why would they not throw them into their defense?

	26-08-2004 14:43									#20
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Aeson:
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...589#post3035589
This are not the exact simulations, I mean, somewhere in this forum other things are burried, specifically for 10 infs defending. But I can't find it.... maybe vulture still knows where he posted it.

As to gold for MI upgrades as opposed to spying: I've been counting what we'll need for upgrades.
- Galleons to transports are 80(?) each, 960 total
- infs to MI are 20 gold, 1140 gold
- rifles to MI are 80 gold, 1600 gold

In total, this gives us a maximum of 3700 gold for upgrades, as we won't upgrade knights or med infs. Largest part of that comes from rifles left behind, which are lowest priority to upgrade.

Much depends on whether we want to research ahead towards MA or nukes, but if we stop research after computers, we'll be making some 500g per turn (espially if RP helps). It's difficult to estimate, but I think we can have some 5K in our treasury at D-day, ready for upgrades and spying. I'm more inclined to at least upgrade all our invading MI. Extra defenders can be found in marines

As to spying: I have no clue how it works in PBEM, and only notions how it works in SP. One thing I heared is that we can't implant a spy while at war, as we needed an active embassy... but I'm not even sure on that information.

An extra decoy fleet won't be bad, especially if we could make sure Lego does not have our military plans. Could we dig for spies before invading, and be sure they can't insert new ones? Also, that fleet does not necessarily be empty, it could carry some (non-critical) reinforcements. I was thinking on some settlers and workers, which could be chained into port on the next turn. If not attacked, the other way could also work, in that they enlarge the reach of any left over marines.

vmxa1: I agree it would be unwise of Lego to try to attack us, however, this may very well be a last ditch attempt. If we don't destroy them in the first turns before D-day, they will have plenty of transports (or caravels). If they see they can't make it, I wouldn't be surprised if they ship al units over to us, only drafting defenders in their core. At least they could find some honor, by invading us. And, as we're smallest, we would make the easier target, especially if we land a large force on their continent. Also, don't forget Vox.

DeepO

	26-08-2004 14:54									#21
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Hey all. I've been unable to get any response at all from 'Poly for the last three weeks, and it suddenly re-appeared for me last night. So now I've got to catch up with everything.

For the simulations of marines, weren't there some links to the various results from the topped military thread?

	26-08-2004 15:54									#22
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I got the link I quoted like in the topped thread, yes... but I remember something that you made specific simulations for 10 infs as well... can't find that one.

Oh, and not that much to catch up to, it's been calm lately. Silence before the storm

DeepO

	26-08-2004 20:15									#23
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So it's kind of like a ... 'gathering' ... storm.

Hey - I've an idea for a team name...

I've dug up some of the articles I posted with simulations:

The marine vs infantry lookup tables in seveal posts starting with the ones linked. Basically gives the chance for N marines to take a city with M infantry defenders (with some artillery and tanks also present, in some cases), with a variety of defensive combat bonuses.

Tank / marine invasion force simlations for a mixed force of tanks and marines invading a civ with various coastal and inland cities defended by a fixed number of infantry (basically to look at whether it is better to stack defenders in coastal cities, or to defend inland ones too).

There were some other posts - one was purely marines vs infantry, which is essentially all in the first post, but it went up to 40 marines vs 10 inf (although with a minor bug in the program which changes some irrelevant results, such as 4 marines vs 1 infantry). Haven't found that one yet. I think there was one more set of simulations which I can't remember anything about.

Will keep looking

	26-08-2004 20:33									#24
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by vulture There were some other posts - one was purely marines vs infantry, which is essentially all in the first post, but it went up to 40 marines vs 10 inf (although with a minor bug in the program which changes some irrelevant results, such as 4 marines vs 1 infantry). Haven't found that one yet.

That's the one which would be most useful now... but I didn't find it either at first sight.

DeepO

	26-08-2004 20:47									#25
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I've found it! It's cunningly hidden in the Spartan Academy thread...

Link to relevant post

As previously mentioned, there is a minor bug. The problem was that although units got promoted from elite to elite* correctly (i.e. with no extra hps) I forgot to add in something to stop elite* units being promoted, which lead to them getting an extra load of hitpoint taken from somewhere more or less random in the computers memory. If this was a nice large number, they could become effectively immortal, having a few billion hps or something. Which is why for 40 marines vs 1 infantry, the marines don't win 100% of the time. The problem is worst with 1 defender, and is only 0.7% there, and is much smaller for any relatively evenly matched scenario, so for pretty much any purpose the numbers are good enough, and certainly are in the right ball park (which is generally all we need).

	26-08-2004 21:09									#26
	Got spare money?

IIRC you cannot plant spies while at war and cannot spy during war without a spy.

The "expose enemy spy" requires CIA as well.

	26-08-2004 21:15									#27
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so, if we 'expose enemy spy' right before attacking them, we are sure they can't spy on us? Can you expose a spy while at war, so could they do the same to us (if they have the CIA, of course)?

Oh, vulture... the link you gave was close, but still not really that one simulation I was looking for... as far as I see, it doesn't have numbers of 40 marines vs 10 infs. It could be that you simply gave those, though, instead of building a full table. Hunting that down won't be easy without a search function.

DeepO

	26-08-2004 21:41									#28
	Remove this text

Oh, you're right. Didn't look that closely. I did post a tale of 10 v 40 though, since I found a copy of that table on my work HDD. Haven't got time to dig it out and reformat it for posting right now though, so I'll stick it up somewhere when I have the time.

The file was created on the 24th of Feb, so it should have been posted at that time. But I haven't had any luck tracking down where it ended up though (and its easier for me because I can see which threads I've posted in).

If only there was a private forum search feature...

	26-08-2004 21:58									#29
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by vulture (and its easier for me because I can see which threads I've posted in).

Yeah... for the past 6 months, I posted in every single GS thread, with very few exceptions. I can't help you there

DeepO

	27-08-2004 00:18									#30
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I don't have the CIA built yet in my game, so I cannot say for sure. They will not be able to spy on us without a spy during war, so if we can know they do not have the CIA built, they will not be able to investigate. Of course if they do not have the Espionage at all they are screwed.

I would not think they will be able to in any case as I would not think they will have cash for such a long shot. If I were them and war was started, I would rather spend my money on rushes or a key tech a turn sooner.