15-09-2004 03:11									#1
	How do you gamble to win? Got spare money?

I'm planning on going to Reno or Las Vegas to gamble so big bucks. Well big bucks for me anyway. I want to win of course, but I want to plan to win. I already have a good plan and I'll post on it soon, but until then you guys can help me out with some ideas.

	15-09-2004 03:15									#2
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You can't. There's a reason casinos are profitable - because on average, you lose money.

	15-09-2004 03:20									#3
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Learn either a winning strategy at Video Poker, or learn to count cards at blackjack very well.

	15-09-2004 03:21									#4
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Blackjack with a card counting system is your best bet but I doubt you (or just about anyone for that matter) could master it. If it was easy then everyone would be doing it and the casinos would go out of business.

	15-09-2004 03:46									#5
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No. Card counting doesn't work anymore. They use multiple decks. There is a way though. I didn't say you couldn't lose, but there is a way to plan to win.

	15-09-2004 03:48									#6
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Oh, and I'm talking about legal ways too.

	15-09-2004 04:01									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious No. Card counting doesn't work anymore. They use multiple decks. There is a way though. I didn't say you couldn't lose, but there is a way to plan to win.

You can find casinos off the strip that still deal one deck by hand.

	15-09-2004 05:06									#8
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Play poker vs. idiots. The trick is finding a table of idiots.

	15-09-2004 05:22									#9
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Ok. Here's my plan. I'm going to take $5,000 to the casino. I picked this sum because it's the most that I'm willing to lose at any risk. The risk to lose it will be very small though. I plan to win between $500 and $1500. I plan to play Roulette 100 times with $50 chips, and bet that $50 on one number each time. However, if I win between the first and tenth time I will quit. I will also quit if I win three times out of that 100 bets.

Here's what I have for probabilities so far.

Probability of winning 1 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100 = 96.2%
Probability of winning 2 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100/2 = 80.6%
Probability of winning 3 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100/3 = 76.5%

What do you guys think?

	15-09-2004 05:27									#10
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quote: Ok. Here's my plan. I'm going to take $5,000 to the casino. I picked this sum because it's the most that I'm willing to lose at any risk.

I thought you said you were in poverty... and you're planning on just blowing off $5,000?

	15-09-2004 05:34									#12
	Got spare money?

What kind of roulette table are you playing? Your odds of winning are 1/38 (1/37 on a European style table), while the payout if/when you do win is 1/35. Regardless, all your doing is betting that your number comes up early in the cycle, i.e. among the first 34 attempts.

	15-09-2004 05:35									#13
	Got spare money?

You bet one of the higher rollers that he's going to lose.

SP

	15-09-2004 05:43									#14
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The more you play, the better the casino's chances are of beating you. So players need to get in and out in a hurry.

Therefore, besides counting cards (and cheating ), there are only to reasonable chances to win:

1) Be the casino...casinos almost always win.

2) Double your bet. That is, first decide on the amount you want to win...say $100. Bet the whole $100. If you win, you pocket the money and walk away. If you don't, you double the bet...$200. If you win, you've paid yourself back for the $100 you lost and you've won the $100 you wanted to. But if you lose again, you bet $400 the next time. If you win, you've paid yourself back the $300 you've lost plus you've won the $100. If you lose, bet $800. . . . etc.

Most of the time, with this system, you'll win your target. But if you don't...God have mercy on your credit rating.

	15-09-2004 05:50									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Solomwi What kind of roulette table are you playing? Your odds of winning are 1/38 (1/37 on a European style table), while the payout if/when you do win is 1/35. Regardless, all your doing is betting that your number comes up early in the cycle, i.e. among the first 34 attempts.

There are 31 numbers here. I'm pretty sure. The pay out is 30 to 1.

Yes, you will win if your number comes up early. Your odds of winning at least $500 is very high though. It's not as simple as just betting 30 times on the same number. The risk of betting on less spins puts all of your money at much more risk. You benefit where you walk out ahead though. You have to plan that though.

	15-09-2004 06:08									#16
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Odd table, but fair enough. What number you bet on is mathematically irrelevant, as each has the same chance of coming up on a given spin. What I'm saying is that, as far as I can tell, your plan hinges on the winner coming up before 30 losers do. To put it another way, obviously, if you play long enough, the ratio of winners to losers will settle around 30:1, and all I can see that you're doing is betting the 100 spins you take are front-loaded with winners.

100 $50 bets seems like a good middle between 1 $5000 bet and 5000 $1 bets, and your plan may well work this time. All I'm saying is it won't work a lot of times. Either way, good luck, and if you walk out a loser, it's still good entertainment.

	15-09-2004 06:24									#17
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Don't play something that's based on pure chance if you want to win, since the odds are always against you.

Play something like poker, blackjack, or baccarat.

	15-09-2004 06:29									#18
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The ONLY game in a casino where the odds can be in your favor is poker, and that is because you aren't playing against the house. Even if you play blackjack PERFECTLY, (without counting cards) you are still at a slight disadvantage.

Learn Texas Hold 'Em inside and out. Study pot odds, implied odds, poker theory, things of that nature. I can recommend some books if you like. Then, find a table full of a bunch of people who look like tourists - couples, old people, etc. - and take their money. They want to gamble, otherwise they wouldn't be in Vegas. You don't want to gamble, you want to win money. Therefore, you will play a different style of poker than they will - they'll be gambling, but you'll be playing the odds and the psychology. You'll win.

	15-09-2004 06:44									#19
	Re: How do you gamble to win? Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious I'm planning on going to Reno or Las Vegas to gamble so big bucks. Well big bucks for me anyway. I want to win of course, but I want to plan to win. I already have a good plan and I'll post on it soon, but until then you guys can help me out with some ideas.

You don't.

	15-09-2004 06:51									#20
	Got spare money?

I always had the best results from betting horses -- of course, there you're betting against other players, not the house.

	15-09-2004 06:54									#21
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There are too many uncertainties betting on horses, though.

	15-09-2004 07:10									#22
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Not if you study, but it's a lot of work. I proved to myself I could make a living off it, but I didn't really like the stress.

	15-09-2004 07:25									#23
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Right now I'm playing poker online. As a test, I started with $1. I'm playing limit .25/.50, and I'm up to $6.35. I LOVE THIS GAME!

	15-09-2004 07:36									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin If it was easy then everyone would be doing it and the casinos would go out of business.

damn right

Gambling can be fun but don't ever expect to win, don't chase losses and work out how much you are prepared to lose and make that your stake. Then have a great time.

	15-09-2004 07:43									#25
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Kidicious, your plan is still a losing one on average.
of course your odds look good, but if you lose you lose a lot.
Its sorta like betting 10:1 in your favor, just more complicated.

Let me summarize, in big casinos, all games against the house are losing on the average, and the least losing ones and the skill ones like blackjack, where you can play 98 or 99% (meaning y lose 1 or 2 $ per 100$ bet on average with perfect play).
Now it IS possible to make a living gambling, either by playing against other ppl (poker etc) or by playing skill game very well in small gambling places with less strict rules, as Ming said...

and zkribbler's system is a called a finite St Petersburg paradox, and if you dont have an infinite amount of money, its not any better than any system in the long run...

	15-09-2004 07:44									#26
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OK, final report - I turned $1 into $15.70. God I love this game.

	15-09-2004 07:45									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious Ok. Here's my plan. I'm going to take $5,000 to the casino. I picked this sum because it's the most that I'm willing to lose at any risk. The risk to lose it will be very small though. I plan to win between $500 and $1500. I plan to play Roulette 100 times with $50 chips, and bet that $50 on one number each time. However, if I win between the first and tenth time I will quit. I will also quit if I win three times out of that 100 bets. Here's what I have for probabilities so far. Probability of winning 1 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100 = 96.2% Probability of winning 2 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100/2 = 80.6% Probability of winning 3 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100/3 = 76.5% What do you guys think?

And by the way your calculations are totally wrong, I will correct them in my next post

	15-09-2004 07:46									#28
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If you like slot machines and have a lot of time, get on a machine on a link and play minimum bets and hope the link goes off on your machine.

Some of them have small regular jackpots of say a couple of hundred bucks.

	15-09-2004 08:01									#29
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Ok Im assuming :

-you are playing a game that cost 1 dollar (doest matter if its 50 just multiply everything by 50)
-chance of winning 1/31
-if you lose, you get 0, if you win you get 30

(the numbers are not that important, for normal roulette, with 1/37 or 38 and 35 or 36, the results are similar)

I also assume you play exactly 100 times i can compute if you stop before that if you want but wont make much of a difference)

This is called a binomial distribution BTW
Odds of never winning : (30/31)^100 = 3.766% (lost 100 $)
odd of winning exactly one time : (30/31)^99 * (1/31) * 100 = 12.555 % (lost 70 $)
odds of winning exactly twice : (30/31)^98 * (1/31) ^2 * (100*99/2) = 20.7166 % (lost 40$)
odds of winning exactly three times : (30/31)^97 * (1/31)^3 * (100*99*98/6) = 22.558 % (lost 10$)
odds of winning exactly four times : (30/31)^96 * (1/31)^4 * (100*99*98*97/24 = 18.234 % (gain 20$)

I could go on but its a bit long and Im using crappy java calculator...
Ask anybody who knows probability to check, but these look normal to me.
So looking quickly you have about 55% chance to lose
and only about 27% to win more than 20$ (after deducting the 100%.
The average expectancy is easy to compute, you gain on average 30/31 per bet, so if you bet 100$ you will have about 96$ on average at the end....

Which isnt so bad really, on a slot machine you would have about 60$.


My conclusion is this.
If you go play 5000$ at roulette (meaning the total amount of money bet) you will get on average 4800 $ buck at the end, and you're odds of winning big arent that great.
Thats how games of chance go.

	15-09-2004 08:04									#30
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Invest your $5000 in the stock market.

Or come back from Vegas saying, "Why didn't listen to NeOmega and invest in the market!?"

I casino gambled once, bet $5 on 40 to 1. Walked out of the casino $195 dollars richer, never looked back.

I lost it all on scratch tickets over the next few years, until I gave those up too.

I saw a sign at the Chevron today, it said "It pays to play"

For state lottery... and i was like "How can we allow our government to advertise like that?" Maybe our liquor stores should have signs that say "It reduces your risk of cancer: and let cigarette companies have signs that say "it stimulates your lungs"