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Ming
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
Let me ask a question. Everyone seems to agree that if you keep playing you will eventually win whatever money you decide.
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I don't think that's what people are saying. Most are saying that in the long run, the odds favor the house.
However, if you were to use the double up strategy, and had an unlimited source of cash to draw on, you can't lose... eventually, you will win. The problem is, you don't have an unlimited source of cash... and a bad run could cost you FAR more than the limited ammount of money you win.
quote:
The question is what if everyone kept playing until they won and then quit? |
One, you are still assuming that you will eventually win if you keep playing. Not true. Again, if you had unlimited money, you can ride out the bad times, and at some point "might" get ahead... but the odds say, the longer you play, the more you will lose.
Second, the hardest thing to do when you are winning is to walk away. The average person thinks they can continue to win.. they get caught up in the whole experience. Smart players do walk away.
When I'm ahead, I put money aside equaling what I bet, and a substantial profit... and don't touch it anymore, but continue to gamble using the house's money. If I continue to win, I will put more money away... and when I finally run out of "available" money, I will still have money left, and will walk away a winner.
That's the best advice I can give to people who gamble.
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
Yeah. I was just lucky. btw, I lost the sixth game. I think my chance of winning each game is about 80% with the settings. Another big factor is the size of each bet.
Let me ask a question. Everyone seems to agree that if you keep playing you will eventually win whatever money you decide. The question is what if everyone kept playing until they won and then quit? |
Who agreed with this?
If you keep playing you will eventually lose thats for sure.
The longer you play the more you lose.
By using doubling strategy you can expect to win if you have infinite money, if you dont then they are not any better than any strategy.
doubling strategy are just like yours and just like that guy who was betting on soccer earlier in this thread or like all my stupid example some posts above :
It is EASY to get very good odds of winning a little bit of money, but when you do lose, you will lose so much money as to not make it worth it.
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Kidicious
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Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003
time: 21:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Ming
However, if you were to use the double up strategy, and had an unlimited source of cash to draw on, you can't lose... eventually, you will win. The problem is, you don't have an unlimited source of cash... and a bad run could cost you FAR more than the limited ammount of money you win.
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Ok, let's just say that 50 people risk $100,000 to win $1,000. True, the odds are against each player. However, the odds of anyone losing is small. It is more likely that the casino will lose 50,000 dollars than it is that they will win anything. Expand this to everyone playing. You don't need an infinite amount of money. The numbers just have to be right to make it so that the chance is greater that the casino will lose.
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:24
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Nothing improves the odds on a given bet. The wheel or the cards don't remember that you lost last round or that the roulette wheel hasn't hit 36 in a week. Every bet is individual.
For those with the doubling strategy, if you are so sure that you MUST win sooner or later, why not increase your bet 10fold each time? After all, if you have to win sooner or later, you might as well win some real money. The best the doubling strtaegy gets you is a win equal to your initial stake.
Think of it this way . . . The odds of a fairly flipped coin coming up heads 50 times in a row are very very small. I might bet a large sum of money against that happening. But you don't get to make THAT bet. Instead you get the situation where it has happened 49 times in a row.
I'd say the casinos love the "doublers". Their total loss to any one of them is equal to the bettors initial bet. All the casino needs is one person to lose out ( say a 10 dollar bettor loses 10 times in a row with a last bet of 5120 and an aggregate loss of 10,230.) With a 50% chance of winning, the casino would break exactly even against the doublers (just as they would on any given bet against all non-doublers) . . . but the casino doesn't give you 50% odds of course.
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
then the lottery is a good game for you. . |
Statistically the lottery is NEVER a good game. I buy an occasional lottery ticket but it is not an investment and I KNOW that statistically it is a sucker bet. I buy them for the entertainment. Its worth a buck or two to me to fantasize of what I could do if I won
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
Ok, let's just say that 50 people risk $100,000 to win $1,000. True, the odds are against each player. However, the odds of anyone losing is small. It is more likely that the casino will lose 50,000 dollars than it is that they will win anything. Expand this to everyone playing. You don't need an infinite amount of money. The numbers just have to be right to make it so that the chance is greater that the casino will lose. |
Im sorry Kidicious theres only so much explaining I can do.
If you dont believe me go to a casino....
Now lets take YOUR example.
and make it 1000 people. each risking 100,000 to win 1000 $ at 99:1 odds which are very good odds for such a bet in a casino.
so one out of 100 loses and 99 out of a hundred win
so 10 lose and 990 win
the 10 losers give casino 1 Million, the 990 winner win 990 K casino gets 10K.
In actual vegas casino this number would be close to 20K for roulette or blackjack and like 250 K on token machines.
I already made this example by the way.
Ill put this one in big letters.
NO SUCH SYSTEM WITH A FINITE AMOUNT OF MONEY WILL HAVE ODDS AGAINST THE CASINO.
NONE, AUCUN, whatever
whatever number of ppl playing whatever until whatever.
THE ODDS ARE ALWAYS FOR THE CASINO.
the problem in your examples is you are never stating the odds.
you are just saying "good" odds or "bad" odds.
all your examples come down to this
YES YOUR ODDS ARE GOOD, BUT NOT AS GOOD AS SHOULD BE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF MONEY YOU ARE RISKING VS WHAT YOU WILL BE WINNING.
suppose i gave you this bet :
you have 95% chance of wining one cent, if you lose you lose 100 K $.
would you say oh wow good odds of wining great deal.
of course not
well this is exactly what the casino does with less extreme numbers...
Last edited by on 17-09-2004 at 03:21
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
It all depends on what your goals are. If you want to win $70,000 dollars and you only have $10 dollars then the lottery is a good game for you. Investing $10 dollars on stocks isn't possible, but even if you invested $1,000 you couldn't win $70,000, atleast not as quickly. |
Actually this is also wrong.
A good broker probably has more chance to win 70K dollars by buying and selling 10$ than you have at winning lottery (although still very low odds).
If a good broker has return expectancy over 100%, meaning if he actually makes money on average then his bets are better.
He has more chance by using risky investment then a lottery ticket...
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
What's wrong with this statement? I said keep playing until you win, not just keep playing. |
to keep playing until you win , you need an infinite amount of money...
what if you attain your max amount you are willing to lose before winning!!
thats the part you always forget
You want such a system, i gave you one much simpler
OK listen you were saying you were ready to risk 5k $.
Then go do this.
Go to the roulette table, divide your 5k in equal amounts , and put them on almost all numbers but not all so that you still win money if you get one of your numbers...
Your chance of winning will be like 95 or 96% and you will win probably 100$
if you lose you lose your 5000$
the odds are the same as your more complicated system.
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16-09-2004 11:36
names in a barrell and drew out 7. I was the 7th one pulled at the very least I had won $10,000.00 and had the chance to go for a million. Winning the lottery was luck but I also have incredible begininners luck especially at poker I usually always win.
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