15-09-2004 08:46									#31
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by Zkribbler first decide on the amount you want to win...say $100.

Exactly. This is what I should have said initially. This is the key. You have to decide how much you want to win. Keep playing the game until you achieve your goal.

The problem is you don't have an infinite supply of money. So what you do is set the amount of money you are willing to lose to abandon your goal. If the amount you want to win is small compared to the amount you are willing to lose your odds will be great.

Does anyone know of a way to calculate the probabilities of this?

	15-09-2004 08:49									#32
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by LulThyme And by the way your calculations are totally wrong, I will correct them in my next post

I know. I'm no mathematician. I had to arse someone to do the correct calculations. Thanx.

	15-09-2004 08:51									#33
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by LulThyme My conclusion is this. If you go play 5000$ at roulette (meaning the total amount of money bet) you will get on average 4800 $ buck at the end, and you're odds of winning big arent that great. Thats how games of chance go.

No. I stop after I have won a much smaller amount.

	15-09-2004 08:56									#34
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by Solomwi Either way, good luck, and if you walk out a loser, it's still good entertainment.

The entertainment is a problem. The goal is to take home money. If you get into the entertainment you will lose track of the goal. It's hard to with the cocktail watresses struting around flirting with everyone, lights flashing everywhere, and people having a good old time.

	15-09-2004 09:30									#35
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

get super system by doyle brunson

	15-09-2004 09:33									#36
	Get a bigger avatar today!

williams was lucky to get into the finals tonite. too bad marcel didnt win it all, that guy is chill.

	15-09-2004 09:46									#37
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

(nm, misread post I was replying too)

	15-09-2004 09:57									#38
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia get super system by doyle brunson

I have always wondered about those systems.

If they are so hot, the author would certainly be going on a winning spree in some casino.

So I think it's a racket, make money by writing a book on a system the author invented.

	15-09-2004 09:59									#39
	Inflate your Upload Space

doyle brunson is one of the top poker players in the world.

so yes, he does go on winning sprees in casinos. the problem is that there are limits, etc, in casinos, so he goes on winning streaks in tournaments, where the pot is $2million.

	15-09-2004 10:26									#40
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious The entertainment is a problem. The goal is to take home money. If you get into the entertainment you will lose track of the goal. It's hard to with the cocktail watresses struting around flirting with everyone, lights flashing everywhere, and people having a good old time.

yes but the problem is there is no sure fire way to win money, and that playing in the long run is actually a sure fire way to lose money.
Some people make sort of a compromise : they get a system that will make sure they dont lose too much money too quickly and is fun to do...

	15-09-2004 10:40									#41
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious Exactly. This is what I should have said initially. This is the key. You have to decide how much you want to win. Keep playing the game until you achieve your goal. The problem is you don't have an infinite supply of money. So what you do is set the amount of money you are willing to lose to abandon your goal. If the amount you want to win is small compared to the amount you are willing to lose your odds will be great. Does anyone know of a way to calculate the probabilities of this?

AT THE BEST, your odds will be the amount you want to win : the amount you are willing to lose.
So say you are stopping only if you either are over 100$ or under 5000$, then the best you could hope for are odds 1:50 in your favor, but in fact in most games youll get 1:48 or even worse odds.
Of course the odds are good since you are risking so much for so little and anywayt
in the long run, using a system is like using no system.

	15-09-2004 11:58									#42
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

LoA, spot on regarding Doyle Brunson and "Super System" - I'd also recommend anything by David Sklansky, as well the "Caro's Book of Tells", and if you're into tournaments, Phil Hellmuth's book.

	15-09-2004 16:39									#43
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Lul Thyme's calculations are slightly off since the order of your win does not matter. Thus, the odds are slightly better.

	15-09-2004 16:54									#44
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Craps typically has the best odds of any house game. It's slightly harder to learn though. Blackjack is second best for odds as far as I know. No game favors the player, obviously. I don't really enjoy gambling for some reason, but good luck to you!

I was just doing some research on probability and came across some stats page referring to the Kelly system,, which is demonstrably the best way to judge how much money to bet in any situation, statistically speaking. Basically you compute your current advantage and bet that percentage of your total stake. So if you had a hand in blackjack that had 51/49 chance of winning, you'd bet 2% of your stake (not that you can change your bet after the deal, but anyways).

	15-09-2004 17:12									#45
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

For goodness sake, man, SAVE YOUR MONEY! What the hell are you thinking?!?!?

You complain about being exploited all over this forum, and then you decide you're gonna hand over $5000 of your money to some of the biggest exploiters out there!

Wtf?!

-Arrian

	15-09-2004 18:55									#46
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by Arrian For goodness sake, man, SAVE YOUR MONEY! What the hell are you thinking?!?!? You complain about being exploited all over this forum, and then you decide you're gonna hand over $5000 of your money to some of the biggest exploiters out there! Wtf?! -Arrian

Arrian,

My chances of losing are going to be as small as I want them to be. I'm not just going and blowing my money. This is caculated. Well as much as I can do the math. :P

	15-09-2004 19:01									#47
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by LulThyme yes but the problem is there is no sure fire way to win money, and that playing in the long run is actually a sure fire way to lose money.

Yep, that's why you have to quit.

quote: So say you are stopping only if you either are over 100$ or under 5000$, then the best you could hope for are odds 1:50 in your favor, but in fact in most games youll get 1:48 or even worse odds. Of course the odds are good since you are risking so much for so little and anywayt in the long run, using a system is like using no system.

Yeah, this is about what I was thinking. So my probability of losing $5000 while trying to win $1000 would be somewhere between 1/5 and 1/4. If I reduce the target win to $500 then the probability gets down near 1/10.

	15-09-2004 19:02									#48
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Okey-dokie! I'm sure you will beat the house. I mean, it's not like anyone's thought of this before or anything.

Dude, gambling is generally stupid. I'll give Floyd a pass because there is actually some skill involved in poker and you can play against other (less skilled) people, not the house. But even then, there is something called "bad beats" that can **** you.

But hey, if you want to piss away your money, why should a capitalist pig dog like me try and talk you out of it? Oh, yeah, because then you will whine that society should bail you out

:vomit:

-Arrian

	15-09-2004 19:04									#49
	Remove this text

I'm going to do some experimental probability today. I think my odds are better than that.

	15-09-2004 19:16									#50
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

You might as well just buy a bunch of lottery tickets, if you want to blow $5000 bucks out the window.

	15-09-2004 19:19									#51
	Increase the size of your Attachments

If you see that you're losing but having an irresistable desire to go on, just send me the money. I need it much more than that casino...

	15-09-2004 19:21									#52
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

If you play against other people (poker), your expected rate of return can be > 1 if you are better than the other players. However, if you play against the house, your expected rate of return will always be < 1. If you buy lottery tickets, there is a way to get your expected rate of return > 1, however you would have to play several thousands of times in order to get your chance of hitting a payout greater 50% (only playing when there are between 3 and 5 rollovers, then playing a few hundred tickets at a time). So, even playing several lotteries, you might only play once a month, so you would have to play for about 500 years or so....

	15-09-2004 19:26									#53
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker You might as well just buy a bunch of lottery tickets, if you want to blow $5000 bucks out the window.

You're not old enough to play the lottery. :P

	15-09-2004 19:32									#54
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Have you guys ever played poker with someone who walked away as soon as they won some money? Pissed you off if you didn. If 2 people play poker together, and one agrees to play on until the other one quits, the first one is at a disadvantage regardless of the odds of the game. Which one would you rather be?

	15-09-2004 19:43									#55
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious You're not old enough to play the lottery. :P

So?

At least if you blow it on the lottery, it (probably) goes to state funding for education or something.

	15-09-2004 20:00									#56
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I'll repeat what everyone else. Playing the house, on average, you lose. All that Vegas stuff wasn't paid for by winners.

	15-09-2004 20:06									#57
	Increase Your PM Length

Did you know that on average, the General Manager of a casino makes between $400,000 and $600,000 per year?

	15-09-2004 20:08									#58
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Also kid, I am a little surprised you would gamble. although I don't know all the thought processes that go into the ideologies you espouse here, I would have thought that gambling would be unacceptable somehow. Obviously I have no quotes directly on point but a gambling casino seems so . . . . so . .. . overtly capitalist.

	15-09-2004 20:23									#59
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by pchang Lul Thyme's calculations are slightly off since the order of your win does not matter. Thus, the odds are slightly better.

Actually my computations are right and include the fact that the order of the win doesnt matter.
that why i multiply by 100 in case 1, by 100*99/2 in case 2, 1000*99*98/6

thats 100 choose n, to reflect the fact that order doesnt matter as you say and is the number of way to place the wins...

	15-09-2004 20:24									#60
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Sorry must have missed that part. Not used to seeing those equations in non-factorial form.