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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
Ah, but that doesn't mean you can't win. The more money you have the more you can win. If everyone used this system and we all shared our resources we would break the casino. Would they have better odds? yes. Would they win? No. |
Why do you only read what you want?
There are at least 3 posts by me where I explain with many examples how the casino would make money =win...
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
Ok, check this out. Simplify the game to flipping a coin. Now I'm going to play until I lose $1 or lose $2. There is a 50% chance that I will win the first game. Then the game is over. If I lose the first game and lose the second game the game is over. I lose. There is a 25% chance that I will lose that way. The remainder is a 25% chance.
Ok, so what chance do I have to win if I lose the first game and win the second game? According to everyone here my chances of victory is 2/3. So that means that my chances of winning after losing the first game and winning the second game is about 17%, but it seems much more than that to me. I don't see why my chance to win after 2 games shouldn't be over fifty percent since the situation seems exactly the same as the initial situation. |
Ok im assuming you mean WIN 1$ here or lose 2$.
Your analysis is wrong.
You have 2/3 chance of winning 1$ before you lose 2$.
Here is one way to see it.
You have 50% chance to win, 25% to lose as you said, and 25% chance to get back where you started.
But notice that you win twice as many times as you lose, so those 25% chance will be distributed the same way.
There is a way to express as an infinite sum also.
theoritically the game could go on forever, if you get a lose , win, lose win , lose win streak...
so the total odds are 2/3 of winning.
Ask anybody who has done any probability (this is very basic stuff), if you still dont believe even though everyone will agree with me, do the ultimate test.
Do a computer program to do a few thousand test or go throw a coin 100-200 time (should be enough in this case.).
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
I'm getting 73% instead of 67%. I'll explain later. |
Let ME explain why this cant be right
you have 25% of starting your streak with L L (meaning losing twice in a row)
you have 25% *25% = 6.25 % chance of starting with this sequence : L W L L (losing winning then lose lose)
already you have 31.25 chance of losing.
in fact if you do the whole infinite sum you will have 33.333 % =1/3 chance of losing...
Almost all of your probability thinking is flawed, and basing money on it, although not any worse than almost all other people betting, is a questionnable idea...
As i said do a computer or life simulation if you dont believe me...
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quote:
Originally posted by Whaleboy
Maths is irrelevant, lets look at the evidence. Casinos: Multi-billion dollar industry. Gamblers: Among the highest divorce rate in the Western world. Get my point? |
but its important to go beyond that.
In the 60s some people did break the casinos at blackjack by counting cards.
Its not good enough to say oh the casinos are rich so theres no way to win.
A guy in Montreal made himself very famous about 10 years ago by using a computer to find a flaw in one of the slot machines and getting the jackpot a few times.
that was before computer were outlawed in most casinos.
so its not true that math is irrelevant.
all of the above people used math to BEAT that casinos at their own game.
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Dissident
He places a $138,000 bet on roulette (black or red bet 2 to 1) and wins! He wins $138,000.
It made the local news here. I'm sure it made some news in England.
But for every 1 of these guys, there are 100,000 losers.
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Yup, we never hear about the guys who sold their house, placed a bet and then lost everything because who would want to admit to doing such a stupid thing.
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
No way. Even you admit that I have a 80% chance of winning. You're saying the casino will win every time. |
The casino will win if 100 people do like you, or if you do it a hundred time is what I said.
You ahve 80% chance of winning, but lose 10 times what you win if you do lose.
The casino is very happy with you 
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
The entertainment is a problem. The goal is to take home money. If you get into the entertainment you will lose track of the goal. It's hard to with the cocktail watresses struting around flirting with everyone, lights flashing everywhere, and people having a good old time. |
If your goal is to take home money then bet your money in the biggest casino of them all - the stock markets.
Here's a good bet: Esprit (0330.hk)
It's trading at about HK$39 and one-year target prices are ranging from $45-$50.
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thest...0844&intcatid=1
Even with the conservative target price, you could a 15% return. At the high target price, the return is about 28%.
Or to put that into gambling terms, you bet US$5,000 on it and you could make $1,400.
If you play roulette, there's a strong chance that you'll lose everything. If you buy a stock like Esprit, there's almost no chance of losing everything.
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:24
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The share are priced in Hong Kong dollars and the lot size is 500 shares so it requires a minimum investment of about US$2,500.
I've got shares now, so I don't know if I'll buy more.
The stock has shot up. A year ago it was trading for HK$20.
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17-09-2004 05:41
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