01-10-2004 20:40									#181
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Flubber, Cooling of relations? Let's put it bluntly. The Canadian government has openly ridiculed the US president. And, this lack of fundamental diplomacy is the fault of the United States?

	01-10-2004 20:40									#182
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What was the issue that reduced Kerry's chances? His lack of credibility on issues of defense. Nothing (very little) he said during the debate has changed peoples minds on that issue (and with good reason).

The 'global test' comment will haunt him.

Kerry wont be elected.

Lieberman would have been a better opponent for Bush.

	01-10-2004 20:41									#183
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For comparison regarding the above numbers:

More Favorable Opinion of Candidate After the Debate (putting the difference between each candidates' net increase in favorability in paranthesis)

2004
Bush Kerry
9/30 21 46 (Kerry +29)

2000
Bush Gore
10/17 31 29 (Bush +7)
10/11 40 24 (Bush +20)
10/3 34 27 (Bush +11)

1992
Clinton Bush Perot
10/19 27 29 63 (Clinton +1)
10/11 29 13 62 (Clinton +26)

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politi...debate-poll.htm

In other words, Kerry's performance in the debate was more effective than any of Clinton's performances in '92 or Bush's in 2000.

Further, 46.6 million people are estimated to have watched this debate.

This is a huge Kerry win.

Last edited by Ramo on 01-10-2004 at 20:48

	01-10-2004 20:42									#184
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Spencer, Bush did a very poor job of explaining why Kerry was a flip-flopper. Kerry may have erased that issue from the campaign with his performance.

	01-10-2004 20:42									#185
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Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

	01-10-2004 20:47									#186
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Spencer, Bush did a very poor job of explaining why Kerry was a flip-flopper. Kerry may have erased that issue from the campaign with his performance.

It would have been better for the outcome of the debate if Bush had been more communicative but the message about Kerry is "out there". IMO nothing else explains his poor approval ratings on defense issues and credibility (and defense is the issue that will decide this election).

	01-10-2004 20:50									#187
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quote: Originally posted by SpencerH Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

I agree.

Debates are fun but I doubt they really influence voters that much. People just don't really care who is the most intellectual or eloquent on a topic.

	01-10-2004 20:55									#188
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quote: Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

Naturally, I slightly disagree. I think Kerry won the debate, but he will WIN the election on the momentum of his debate wins (Yes, I think he'll win the next two as well).

	01-10-2004 20:58									#189
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The debates may have a big impact on this election. While they won't change the minds of the "dedicated", the non decided vote will swing this election. Since most of them probably hate both candidates, something like the debates may be all it takes to move them to Kerry's side.

	01-10-2004 20:58									#190
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The newspapers in my country gives a victory to Kerry by far.

Anyway, do you call "debate" to that?

	01-10-2004 20:59									#191
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quote: Originally posted by SpencerH Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

Sadly, I agree with this too.

	01-10-2004 20:59									#192
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Kerry beat Bush on his strength, foreign policy. It only makes sense that Kerry would do even better on domestic issues. Though, the effect wouldn't be as pronounced - it's hard to see him getting yet another a net 29 point favorability boost as in this debate. Also, Kerry probably has lost his edge in the expectations game.

	01-10-2004 21:01									#193
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Bush has some inherent strenghts in debating-no, not rhetorical skills, nor the ability to put together a logical arguement to its conclusion, ut the ability to seem genuine and likeable-a common man of conviction. A lot of voters prefer that to intelligence, as they distrust smarts.

Kerry used to be a prosecutor and is a skilled debater, but Americans no longer seem to have the patience for someone to build a case as a prosecutor- you have to give short quips, so this negates some of his advantage.

Everyone always underestimates Bush-and Bush plays off this image, so that when he is not utterly crushed, he can claim victory, or at least a draw.

I do think thought the pundits right now are givin Bush's prefromance a better raiting than the public is.

	01-10-2004 21:05									#194
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Agree with Ramo.

For SpencerH, Kontiki and the others who think that, in Argentina the former president has a 75% of the votes against him in the polls, but the same people says "he will won instead". Well, he lost (and this was tooooo good for Argentina).

	01-10-2004 21:08									#195
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The gallup stuff is pretty interesting . . .

Kerry wins the debate but not by enough to change most people's views on the who's better issue.

On the economy I wonder will Bush keep his message as simplistic. I just have visions of Bush saying 50 times " my opponent will raise taxes, I won't"

	01-10-2004 21:09									#196
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Yaaay!!! Bush won!!!

	01-10-2004 21:10									#197
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Next debate is supposed to be a Town Hall type of debate. This might be the opportunity for Kerry to shine because of the two, Bush is the more scripted kinda guy.

Town Hall "debates" are purely scripted events. All questions are submitted beforehand, the moderator choses which questions get asked, and there are no follow-ups. They're even more of a farce than the normal "debates."

	01-10-2004 21:12									#198
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I think town hall benefits Bush- I think he is better at playing of to a crowd-plus there might be more room for body language and so forth. That being said, Kerry has shown he can at least not be robotic like Gore.

	01-10-2004 21:14									#199
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They should get Drew Carey to host moderate it and they can do a whose line is it anyway style deal... that would be kewl

	01-10-2004 21:14									#200
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quote: Kerry wins the debate but not by enough to change most people's views on the who's better issue.

I'm not sure I'd say that. There's typically a lag time betwen when an event happens and when the poll numbers catch up to reflect it.

	01-10-2004 21:18									#201
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The problem is, Ramo, there was no event. I don't think anything happened such that any thing will change.

	01-10-2004 21:19									#202
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Why do you say that?

	01-10-2004 21:22									#203
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Because that's how I feel. Kerry impressed me so much that he can speak in public with out putting his foot in his mouth.... and Bush did a good job at defending his case and brainwashing ppl to think Kerry is not CiC material. Besides that Kerry lacked substance and Bush lacked tact, nothing new IMO.

	01-10-2004 21:27									#204
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think). Naturally, I slightly disagree. I think Kerry won the debate, but he will WIN the election on the momentum of his debate wins (Yes, I think he'll win the next two as well).

I agree . People forget what "comeback Kerry" is all about. He's pulled off miracles before, he can do it again.

	01-10-2004 21:27									#205
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat Did anyone notice that twice kerry said that we failed to secure Iraq's nuclear facilities? What facilities was he talking about? I thought Iraq no longer had a nuclear program.

They had a civilian nuke plant, which was allowed. After the war, we didn't secure it immediately and stuff from the plant started getting looted. It is theoretically possible terrorists made off with radioactive material to make a dirty bomb.

	01-10-2004 21:28									#206
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quote: Because that's how I feel. Kerry impressed me so much that he can speak in public with out putting his foot in his mouth.... and Bush did a good job at defending his case and brainwashing ppl to think Kerry is not CiC material. Besides that Kerry lacked substance and Bush lacked tact, nothing new IMO.

The Gallup poll shows lots of changed minds about Kerry. As I said, this debate was more successful for Kerry than any of the '92 debates were for Clinton or 2000 debates for Bush.

And are you saying that Bush had substance? He repeated the same talking points over and over again.

	01-10-2004 21:32									#207
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quote: There's typically a lag time betwen when an event happens and when the poll numbers catch up to reflect it.

quote: The Gallup poll shows lots of changed minds about Kerry

I can tell you're a democrat

	01-10-2004 21:37									#208
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In terms of the horse race (though on specific issues, that's less the case), Japher. The internals move pretty quickly.

	01-10-2004 21:38									#209
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I only watched a little bit, early on. I was impressed with neither candidate. Bush just repeated talking points over and over. His parts were ill-fitted sound bites stuck together. This will be good for him in the long run because most people don't watch the actual debates, but will only see clips of sound bites later on.

Kerry's was bobbing his head too much and smiling at inapporpriate times, so that it seemed like he was agreeing with the Prez when the Prez was criticizing him. Kerry missed the mark a few times when Bush said something stupid.

One big problem for Bush, though, was that he was expected to win the debate beforehand according to news polls. Bush's style is to have lowered expectations,and then rise above them. If folks only think you can deliver 30% and you bring 45%, you do a lot better than expected, and the difference is what impresses folks.

Not that the debates are anything more than a soulless husk of what they once were. I wish the news organizations would get together and decide to host the debates and refuse to televize the Federal Comminsion on President Debates farces.

	01-10-2004 21:38									#210
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quote: It is more of a cheap shot because the attack was not on Bush himself but on his commanding General Franks.

Bush is commander in chief and its on his watch so YES he is to blame when his generals screw up.