16-11-2004 08:17									#271
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by vmxa1 But to answer, after a fashion, I abhor the idea of losing lots of troops at sea.

Hmmm... maybe this is something we haven't looked into enough. Let's say we go for A78. As not all the BBs won't be able to reach the left over transports, not all of them will be killed. We can use this to store settlers, and possibly even marines, but is there a real need? We could also land the marines, and next turn build a city, load the marines, and chain them to the transports. It's the safest way I see... perhaps best used in combination with the other ideas, to spread as much troops as possible. So land a few marines, keep a few in the transports next to A87, and load a few on the transports in the South. If everything goes as planned, we can chain everything to the South fleet. If something doesn't go as planned, we keep at least 2/3 of our marines, as no way Lego is going to sink all of our transports.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 08:19									#272
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by OPD I seem to have lost the overall plans so excuse me if I'm being niaave but would it be possible to unload all units then just build a city, move any surviving transports in and re-load a selection of units for an attack somewhere.

well, this is basically what I said above, only worked out a little. We do need some guarantee we keep a credible threat on more cities, as otherwise we won't be able to penetrate their defenses in the few cities they need to protect.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 08:21									#273
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by Aeson How much would it cost to steal their map?

Sorry, don't know. I'm not going to play the save tonight, I'll check in the morning. Quite possibly, it will cost more than we own, there is still a large chunk unexplored. I wouldn't count on it being affordable

DeepO

	16-11-2004 08:25									#274
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Theseus DeepO, if in any way my banging away about the north plan is holding things up, don't worry about it... go ahead as previously planned.

No, you're not holding us up. But as long as there is lively discussion in this thread, it's obvious that we haven't reached consensus yet, and new, possibly better ideas can surface. With the plans as they are now, I can play the save in 2-3 hours, and it hasn't been 48h yet, I think.

To put a deadline on it, I'll start playing the save when I wake up (should be somewhere around noon GMT). If there is something unexpected happening, I can wait until you guys wake up. Otherwise I'll do as I see fit. That should leave enough time for most of the debate to settle. We're not in a hurry, but can't wait forever either.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 08:45									#275
	Inflate your Upload Space

quote: Originally posted by DeepO No, you're not holding us up. But as long as there is lively discussion in this thread, it's obvious that we haven't reached consensus yet, and new, possibly better ideas can surface. With the plans as they are now, I can play the save in 2-3 hours, and it hasn't been 48h yet, I think. To put a deadline on it, I'll start playing the save when I wake up (should be somewhere around noon GMT). If there is something unexpected happening, I can wait until you guys wake up. Otherwise I'll do as I see fit. That should leave enough time for most of the debate to settle. We're not in a hurry, but can't wait forever either. DeepO

Seems fair to me, no need to go into sleep deprevation, staying p all night.

	16-11-2004 11:54									#276
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Hmmm... maybe this is something we haven't looked into enough. Let's say we go for A78. As not all the BBs won't be able to reach the left over transports, not all of them will be killed. We can use this to store settlers, and possibly even marines, but is there a real need? We could also land the marines, and next turn build a city, load the marines, and chain them to the transports. It's the safest way I see... perhaps best used in combination with the other ideas, to spread as much troops as possible. So land a few marines, keep a few in the transports next to A87, and load a few on the transports in the South. If everything goes as planned, we can chain everything to the South fleet. If something doesn't go as planned, we keep at least 2/3 of our marines, as no way Lego is going to sink all of our transports. DeepO

It's a good thought.

How many N Transports would we expect to have? I count 11 Lego naval units in range. 4 DDs in the S (4/5,4/5,2/3,1/4). 1 DD being produced (4/4). Nearest 4 Battleships (3/5,2/4,2/4,1/4) and 2 DDs (1/4,1/4) from the N. They can bombard our ships from land and with 2 Bombers. Every battle should be in their favor if they attack. So Lego has a shot to sink all 11 N Transports as is.

If we attack the S DDs, we can save a Transport with each kill. Same if we kill one of the N BB with our Hub 2 Destroyer.

So we can potentially cut Lego down to being able to kill only 6 of our N Transports with known ships. Lego has Subs though, so we need to worry about them. I would plan for 1 within range. Lego could also produce a DD in Tip. So to be safe, I think we should only count on having the number of Lego ships sunk -2.

We can cover the stack with the partially moved 3/4 DD (the others give more use attacking a Lego ship). That would allow us to count on the number of Lego ships sunk -1. Giving us 4 Transports to count on if we sink all 5 of our Targets. That will allow us to chain 32 units. We (will) have 39 Marines right? So we need to keep at least 7 on the S Transports.

We need Settlers and Tanks too. We have Hub 3 to take a Transport, leaving us 7. The Marines require 5 Transports, up to 4 of which can be left empty for chaining purposes depending on how many Lego ships we sink. They will be empty "cover" during Lego's turn as well. That leaves 2 Transports (+1 spot) for our Settlers and Tanks. 6 Settlers gives us 11 open slots for Tanks.

So depending on how the attacks on Lego ships go we need the following in the S Transports to maintain full amphibious potential to Tip or Abilene.

5 Sunk: 6S 7M 11T
4 Sunk: 6S 15M 11T
3 Sunk: 6S 23M 11T
2 Sunk: 6S 31M 11T
1 Sunk: 6S 39M 11T
0 Sunk: 6S 39M 11T

	16-11-2004 12:02									#277
	Support Apolyton

I've changed my mind on what we should chain across this turn.

We should bring over 8 MI instead of 6 MI and 2 S. I was doing all the calculations with 12 MI, with 10 MI we lose more Tanks if Lego bombards our stack and attacks with all their Tanks. 2 more MI require 10 Artillery shots to get to 2/4, which keeps those Artillery from hitting 5 Infantry, which protect against 5 Tank attackers that otherwise could kill up to 10 of our Tanks ( likely 7-8 ). If the 2/4 MI defend before the 4/4 Tanks it saves at 2 more Tanks as well.

If we can break through next turn, we still might have the chain intact to bring the Settlers over anyways. Bringing the MI over on the chain won't bring back our Tanks.

	16-11-2004 12:46									#278
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by Aeson If we can break through next turn, we still might have the chain intact to bring the Settlers over anyways. Bringing the MI over on the chain won't bring back our Tanks.

Aye.

	16-11-2004 20:57									#279
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Aeson, the 3/4 DD can cover the rest of the units, but it won't do any good: with 2 arts, it goes below the rest of the stack. I would prefer it to be somewhere else than on the stack, it would be more useful there. Even if it is just to draw some fire away from that stack...

Also, there is one thing I'd like to change to your troop composition: I'd like to keep 8 M on land, maybe even up to 16 M. It's basically the same as keeping them in the empty transports, except a bit safer. For that, we should try to sink some ships, though. I would make the calculations a bit less stringent: there are 4 1/4 ships in range. Surely one of them will fail against a transport, right? All of those fights are in our favour...

DeepO

	16-11-2004 20:59									#280
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

As to chaining: I didn't count so far, but if we need 2 more MI, we will chain 2 more MI. I still propose to build 2 settlers next turn, so we can, if the chain survives, chain 4 more to Legoland.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 21:54									#281
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I'm starting on the turn again.

Stealing the Lego WM is not so expensive as I thought, it seems. 350 gold for safely, 175 for immediately. We've got 947 gold.

A few decisions need to be made:
1. Are we moving the chainer (containing 8 MI) without first scouting for subs (I would do it. It's a risk, but we could use the DD to attack the BB with)

2. do we put the 3/4 DD on top of the 11 TRs (I wouldn't do it, not much use. Whatever else the 3/4 DD is good for has priority to me )

3. precise M placement. I'll first do as much as possible of the battles, and the sub-spotting first, and see the situation.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:02									#282
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

As to question 1: by moving the DD to attack the BB first, and the Marines TR needed to scout for the the 11 TRs second, we only move 1 tile without scouting for subs first. Doing that.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:23									#283
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Movement:
- loading 8 MI into TR in Hurircane

- use DD near Hurricane to scout for subs. When at Hub 1, fortify.

- chainer moves towards Hub 1 and reloads.
- DD from Hub 1 goes to Hub 2
- chainer goes to Hub 2 and reloads.

- DD at Hub 2 moves as inidicated, and attacks 3/5 BB. Sinks. BB 2/5.

- TR with M moves 22222. No sub sighted (phew)

- second TR with M moves 22. Unloads 8 M on Q77.

- Chainer moves to Q778. Reloads
- new chainer moves 222.
- Unloads 8 MI on A78.
- Other TRs on hold for the moment, to see the outcome of the other battles first.

- DD from S fleet moves 33211 and attacks 4/5 DD.
- defensive bombardment failed.
- 4/5 DD sinks, our DD 2/4 (nice!)

- DD moves 12261 and attacks 4/5 DD Pollux.
- Defensive bombardment misses
- DD sunk, Pollux at 1/5.

- DD moves 23131 and attacks 2/4 DD Myrmidon
- DD sinks. Myrmidon 2/4 DD.

Damn, this is not so good. we've got 1 3/4 DD left to attack the Lego fleet with. We won't get defensive bombardment, but if we fail in the attack, Lego will get a promotion.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:26									#284
	Get a bigger avatar today!

I'm moving a few certain chaining ships in the mean time, while thinking this over. First impression is that we need to risk it, and attack. Not only would it be good for the S fleet, but also the N fleet would do well if 1 more ship is gone.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:27									#285
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Aeson, the 3/4 DD can cover the rest of the units, but it won't do any good: with 2 arts, it goes below the rest of the stack. I would prefer it to be somewhere else than on the stack, it would be more useful there. Even if it is just to draw some fire away from that stack... Also, there is one thing I'd like to change to your troop composition: I'd like to keep 8 M on land, maybe even up to 16 M. It's basically the same as keeping them in the empty transports, except a bit safer. For that, we should try to sink some ships, though. I would make the calculations a bit less stringent: there are 4 1/4 ships in range. Surely one of them will fail against a transport, right? All of those fights are in our favour... DeepO

They can bombard our DD and our Transports. 1/4 Transport has bad odds killing a 1/4 DD. It's 73.2% in their favor. If we put a DD on the stack, they have to leave the Transport at 3/4 I think, otherwise a 1/4 DD will defend first. 3/4 Transport vs 1/4 DD gives us good odds, 60.8%. So either Lego sinks our DD first, or they can't have good odds attacking our Transports with their most damaged ships.

	16-11-2004 22:34									#286
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I agree, attack the 2/4 DD with our 3/4. It's 80% in our favor.

	16-11-2004 22:38									#287
	Tired of ads?

Aeson, you're forgetting one thing in this equation, which totally alters it. Lego can bombard that stack at will... they know we don't have 11 full TRs there. Let's say they assume 5 of them are filled. No matter how many DDs are defending it, they can bombard the first ships, until 5 TRs remain at full health (they could even get at least a few of them to 3/4 health if they wanted to). In that respect, a 3/4 DD will do no help whatsoever, as the BBs in range are enough to sink any units in that stack.

What they can't do, is sink all of the transports. And this we can use by moving a couple of units on land, and chaining them next turn. a 1/4 TR is just as good a chainer as a 4/4 TR...

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:44									#288
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Movement continued
- 3/4 DD moves 3221 and attacks 2/4 DD Myrmidon
- Myrmidon sunk.
- 3/4 DD forts.

If you've got a calculator ready, could you tell me the odds of attacking a 1/4 DD with TR?

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:44									#289
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Aeson, you're forgetting one thing in this equation, which totally alters it. Lego can bombard that stack at will... they know we don't have 11 full TRs there. Let's say they assume 5 of them are filled. No matter how many DDs are defending it, they can bombard the first ships, until 5 TRs remain at full health (they could even get at least a few of them to 3/4 health if they wanted to). In that respect, a 3/4 DD will do no help whatsoever, as the BBs in range are enough to sink any units in that stack.

I didn't want any units in the N stack though! My equation is for the S stack. We can only chain so many units to the S stack and still be able to hit Tip... however many Transports as survive in the N stack. So we have to estimate how many Transports can survive in the N stack (X) and fill 7- X Transports in the S stack.

Otherwise we will have more units to chain than we can chain.

quote: What they can't do, is sink all of the transports. And this we can use by moving a couple of units on land, and chaining them next turn. a 1/4 TR is just as good a chainer as a 4/4 TR... DeepO

That is exactly what I am saying. But we need to sink 1 more Lego ship and cover the Transports with a DD before we can leave 8 M on the ground and be "safe" IMO.

	16-11-2004 22:45									#290
	Inflate your Upload Space

4/4 Transport attacks a 1/4 DD at 35%.

	16-11-2004 22:50									#291
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

So the S fleet should be:

3/4 DD
2/4 DD
1 Empty Transport
6 Full Transports (6S 30M 11T)

That leaves 1 extra Marine out, with 6S 1M in one of the Transports, to guarantee it won't be sunk.

	16-11-2004 22:52									#292
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by Aeson I didn't want any units in the N stack though! My equation is for the S stack. We can only chain so many units to the S stack and still be able to hit Tip... however many Transports as survive in the N stack. So we have to estimate how many Transports can survive in the N stack (X) and fill 7- X Transports in the S stack.

Sorry, didn't catch that until now. I fully agree, of course!

For me it was more of a gut feeling thing

quote: That is exactly what I am saying. But we need to sink 1 more Lego ship and cover the Transports with a DD before we can leave 8 M on the ground and be "safe" IMO.

In that respect, you're right. a 3/4 DD protecting means another TR which will survive.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:53									#293
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Another option would be to leave an extra 6 Marine on the ground (15 Total) and hope to be able to chain 6 M 2 S from the mainland next turn if we look to be able to take Tip or Abilene if not enough of our N Transports survive.

	16-11-2004 22:53									#294
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Aeson So the S fleet should be: 3/4 DD 2/4 DD 1 Empty Transport 6 Full Transports (6S 30M 11T) That leaves 1 extra Marine out, with 6S 1M in one of the Transports, to guarantee it won't be sunk.

On the contrary. If you leave units out of a TR, that TR has a higher chance of sinking... the settlers should be in full TRs, while the M should be in 7/8 TRs.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:54									#295
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by Aeson Another option would be to leave an extra 6 Marine on the ground (15 Total) and hope to be able to chain 6 M 2 S from the mainland next turn if we look to be able to take Tip or Abilene if not enough of our N Transports survive.

That looks better to me, gives us even more freedom next turn.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:54									#296
	Inflate your Upload Space

Oops, right. Settlers in a full transport, and a Transport of 7 Marines.

	16-11-2004 22:55									#297
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Oh, something else: there are only 4 S in the fleet. 2 S are still on Stormia, as I chained 8 MI over.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:57									#298
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I've been thinking on stealing Lego's WM. We can make it cheaper for us, if we wait 1 turn, and ask for GoW's WM. they've got a bit of land uncovered we can't see atm. I'm sure they will be interested in our WM as well...

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:59									#299
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Aeson, do you need so many T in transport? If we could have e.g. 3 less, we could make all non-essential TRs 7/8, and have the rest fully loaded.

DeepO

	16-11-2004 22:59									#300
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

To touch on the Spy, will they try to expose our spy next turn? They don't know we have a spy, and aren't likely to have one. So why waste the gold? Then again, they have plenty of cash, so it's a risk.

If we expose their spy, they have 30% to plant, and will know we have a spy again. So it's 30% that they will expose our spy if we expose their spy.

The question is if we think they are more than 30% likely to expose our spy not knowing we got our spy back in. I think it's pretty close, and am fine with either option.

---------

Ok. I gotta go now. I think that's basically everything I have an opinion on.