08-11-2004 07:09									#1
	Turn 243: 1265 AD Put an end to popups!

The save is progressing nicely. I hope it either gets here fast, or gets delayed somewhere, though. The problem is that Thursday the 11th is going to be an off day for me. I'm expecting a heavy party on the 10th (gettogether with some old student friends), I strongly doubt I will be in good enough shape on Thursday to play.

With a bit of luck, we should receive it in 36h, which should leave enough time to play. It's not that I'm doing anything critical before the party, so I can spend all the time needed to get this right. But, if anybody wants to take over for the turn, say so. I admit I would hate missing the invasion we've been working to for over half a year, but if that's needed to keep going smoothly, I'll welcome someone taking over for a day.

DeepO

	08-11-2004 08:27									#2
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Enjoy your day off

Impressive display of firepower last turn by GoW, I had (momentarily)forgotten the bombard rule change in our favor this time.

I opened the save for the first time in many months a little while ago. That yellow blob is looking more and more impressive.

	08-11-2004 09:24									#3
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There is no reason you can't sit on it, if you want. everyone has at one time or another.

	08-11-2004 15:36									#4
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ND: yes indeed. I don't think anybody should doubt that we're in solid 4th place right now... and if it weren't for mobilisation, ND could very well be the first production power. GoW has been gaining a bit of ground as well lately, ND has cleared 1 or 2 cities to give GoW more space.

and an off-day: that's not soo much the problem, but it's not perfectly timed as it will already be needed to take longer then normal on the save. Oh well, we'll see how it goes.

DeepO

	12-11-2004 19:20									#5
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack Turn 243, 1260 AD Battle in the Gulf of Sandonorico 1) 4/4 Lego BB attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (2/4) 2) 4/4 Lego BB attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (4/4), promoted to elite (5/5) 3) 4/4 Lego BB attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (1/4) 4) 4/4 Lego BB attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (4/4) 5) 4/4 Lego BB attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (3/4), promoted to elite (4/5) 6) 4/4 Lego BB attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (2/4) 7) 4/4 Lego DD attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (1/4) 8) 4/4 Lego DD attacks a 4/4 GS DD at Forkmouth 1122; wins (1/4) 9) 2/4 Lego BB attacks a 4/4 GS transport at Forkmouth 1122; wins (2/4), promoted to elite (3/5) 10) 4/4 Lego submarine attacks a 4/4 GS transport at Forkmouth 1122; wins (3/4) Secondary battle in the South 11) 4/4 Lego bomber bombs a 3/4 GS DD at Abilene 4411; misses 12) 4/4 Lego bomber bombs a 3/4 GS DD at Abilene 4411; DD down to 1/4 13) 4/4 Lego DD attacks a 4/4 GS transport at Abilene 4411; wins (3/4), promoted to elite (4/5) 14) 4/4 Lego DD attacks a 4/4 GS transport at Abilene 4411; wins (2/4) 15) 4/4 Lego DD attacks a 4/4 GS transport at Abilene 4411; wins (3/4), promoted to elite (4/5) 16) 3/3 Lego DD attacks the 1/4 GS DD at Abilene 4411; loses, GS DD promoted to 2/5 17) 3/3 Lego DD attacks the 2/5 GS DD at Abilene 4411; wins (1/3) Total: 15 attacks, 14 won, 1 lost, 5 promotions. 2 bombing runs, 1 successful (2hp off a DD). We lost 1 DD, GS lost 9 DDs and 5 transports.

	12-11-2004 19:24									#6
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It looks uglier than it is: Lego destroyed our Deep South diversion. Those 3 transports were empty... I am highly interested in 2 things, though: Which 2 transports did they sink up North? (we had 2 transports with settlers, if both were sunk, we've got a problem) And, also very important: where are the survivers of their North attack, are they blocking our appraoch to the beaches, or not.

DeepO

	12-11-2004 19:27									#7
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But still, needless to say I would have hoped for a bit of luck. At least our chain is still present: I'll switch what I can to marines (we can only build 8 of those, of course), and I'll make sure we'll finish an exta settler as well which we could chain if needed. It doesn't matter how much it costs, we need those settlers up North.

DeepO

	12-11-2004 19:52									#8
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Concerning those left over attackers: hopefully, the BBs are in reach for our other ships. we've got another DD on Hub 2, 4 4/4 DD and a 3/4 DD on the South fleet. We also have a fighter to bomb.

In the Deep South, we have 2 3/4 DDs but unless Lego moved its ships closer to Stormia they will be out of reach. Also, we've got a fighter on a carrier which can scout, but it may be better left to guard for bombers. The Lego bombers have to be stationed in Abilene or Tipperary, which means next turn we're going to have bombers in range again.

DeepO

	12-11-2004 20:56									#9
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Uh, excuse me, they won 14/15 battles, the only loss being a 3/3 DD versus our 1/4 DD?

	12-11-2004 21:37									#10
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Wow I have never won 14/15 naval battles, maybe they should buy a Lotto ticket.

	12-11-2004 22:00									#11
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Though I believe Vondrack is an honest man, I have to admit that this smells really fishy.
I used to know a number of sites that ran a script that calculated the odds of battle, but I've lost the URLs ever since.
Can anyone calculate the odds of this outcome or better for Lego?

	12-11-2004 22:03									#12
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Very slim, but I was around, so I assure you it was legit...

	12-11-2004 22:11									#13
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None of the battles in itself is very biased to them, all are very plausable. In most of the battles, they had the advantage.

It's okay... if we have the same kind of success in our marine attacks, they are going to get seriously hurt. I think that in all, we didn't do badly so far. We knew the 3 turns at sea were going to be dangerous, and the losses are minimal. Consider what would have happened if they had 2 turns time to attack our fleet with that BB stack, instead of only one now. Plus, we've got a chain in place, which is also an advantage I wasn't counting on.

DeepO

	12-11-2004 22:14									#14
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OK, then...

CHARGE!!!

	12-11-2004 22:17									#15
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Thanks Trip. I'm a lot less worried about Lego's stroke of luck now that I've been reassured that it's genuine.

And I was never edgier for the save to come.

	12-11-2004 22:38									#16
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Can we finish 2 Settlers (without cutting out any M builds) to chain across just in case? I think we can deal with any possible loss of our 2 Transports as long as we have some Settlers left.

The Subs are going to be a problem because we have nothing to scout them out with towards Sand.

If Lego is smart they will have blockaded Fork and Sand with 5 of their ships. All we have to attack with would be a 1/4 Sub right? We've lost our split on Tip, so if we lose a split on 2 more because of blockades we are in real trouble. We'd be forced to go to Quanto, which could have 30+ Inf and others.

If that's the case, I think we need to make a landing at Quanto 12. There is a Fortress there and both fleets can land their units. Plus we have DD's to check the lanes for Subs.

So if we can see ships we can't get through (if we can get through them, do it before anything else to make sure) at Sand 1 and Sand 4, investigate Quanto. If there are more Infantry there than we can eat through with Marines, and/or more ships blockading the port than we can get through, land on Quanto 12.

	12-11-2004 22:47									#17
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We can consider ourselves lucky to still have most of our units alive. Forget the battle results. We'll make a landing somewhere at least. Even a plain landing is pretty good if GoW also lands. Our Marines will provide almost as good use protecting our Tanks as they would killing Infantry.

Invasions are hard when the warning time is there. Vox's Immortals would have destroyed us without the warning time... We might not get the rolling invasion, but at least Lego didn't sink us entirely.

	12-11-2004 22:50									#18
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If Sand isn't blockaded, investigate it. Use our least valuable Transport (the one we'd use to receive the chain) to scout the two tiles for the Sub. At least if the Infantry shown there are reasonable.

	13-11-2004 00:06									#19
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No we are not done yet, far from it. Yes the results were very unfavorable, but not outrageous. As DeepO said any of them alone is par. It is only that you would hope to get a few more breaks in 15 battles, but we didn't.

	13-11-2004 01:10									#20
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we at least have a 2/4 DD left in the North to check for the sub. I don't know why, but a transport was sunk before that 2/4 DD defended. In that respect, we could have done a bit better.

I'll see if I can build an extra settler somewhere. we can immediately use 2 workers to replenish the population. It should be possible to do while finishing marines everywhere. Also, now that we receive some money from ND, there will be a bit of cash to rush things.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 10:00									#21
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Having that 2/4 DD changes things of course. I'd rather have it than the Transport to be honest. Lego can't blockade Sand and Fork as surely. They'd be relying on a 2/4 BB somewhere, which is basically a tossup.

	13-11-2004 11:20									#22
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The battle report was not 100% accurate? I would trust known mechanics more than reports subject to human error.

As for cheating, please don't get carried away, Shiber. I've seen one too many team games destroyed by people on all sides being unable to accept that sometimes the RNG and the planning of the other side go against you.

You're Lego. What would you have done aside from send your BBs one by one into the invasion stack? What else can they do?

	13-11-2004 15:43									#23
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I don't know what happened, I thought too the transport should have been defended by the 2/4 DD. Maybe there's an error, also a possibility... but we'll see that when the save comes.

As to cheating: it's one of the advantages of the battle reports that that becomes more unlikely. Lego only had one real option (well, they gambled, as they didn't expect all attacks to succeed). The strategy is very clear in the report, and nothing unforeseen happened. Only when you see things like an attacked, followed by 2 bombardments, followed by 3 attacks, followed by 1 bombardment, etc. that it becomes really fishy. This was just luck, and not such huge amounts of luck either.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 18:05									#24
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A 4/4 trannie defends before a 2/4 DD. Units are ranked according to (hp x defense strength), with the highest scoring defending first (and all sorts of tie-breaking procedures).

I can work out the probability for the results, if anyone is interested, with the proviso that such results are always very misleading after the event.

	13-11-2004 18:29									#25
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Save is here, I'm starting on it right now.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 18:30									#26
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Oh, and vulture, I think we would all be most interested in the stack results of our marine attacks. Let me get some data for you, but first I need to do some economical stuff.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 18:41									#27
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Standing Info

2 forest remains, D-ville 99 and WoC 23.

Defense Plan
Aeson's comments
GoW war plans
Invasion plan

Start

- ND sends 672 gold. accept.

- GoW returns Computers, accepted on their side. Cancelling the deal for now, let's decide on that later.

- RP sends WM + 100g. Sending WM in return.

- EotS builds Marine, start T.
- Enter city view.
- Bolderberg changed to M
- Elipolis changed to M
- Typhoon changed to settler
( 8 M plus 2 S will be build)

- Cyclone builds worker. Starts worker

- Pollution strikes Bolderberg, builds M nonetheless. Starts MI.

- D-ville builds M. starts T.

- Elipolis builds M. starts T.

- Tempest builds Marine, starts T.

- Tornado builds M. starts T.

- Typhoon builds S. starts MI.

- Arashi builds M. starts T (might change later to MI if I can find 1 spt)

- SS builds S. starts S.

- Monsoon builds M. starts T.

- WoC builds MI. Starts sub

- 1265 gold, 0%, 0bpt, +341 gpt. (minituarisation scheduled) 0/? beakers collected.

Modern Era Tech Cost

DeepO

	13-11-2004 18:46									#28
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It's not looking good

DeepO

	13-11-2004 18:55									#29
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pic updated. Somewhere, there has been a mistake, possibly on my side. There is no 2/4 DD present! Further, Sando appears to be blocked (we can't see 1 tile yet), and we lost our spy.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 18:58									#30
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135 gold used to plant a spy... success! At least something is going like it supposed to (we only had a 30% chance or something that the plant succeeded)

DeepO