15-11-2004 04:18									#181
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A few last questions: I would want to keep the fighters (both of them), on air superiority. They could bomb a DD (25% success), or a BB (16% success), or prevent one bomber from bombing our stacks (100% success, but about 50% survival rate).

Further, I'm not sure on the N CV. It could do 2 things: stay at Hub 2 (making it near certain the Hub would survive the turn), or move towards Hub 3 (can't exactly reach it). I vote for Hub 2, because if that (and Hub 1) survives, we can almost certainly chain more units to us next turn, we've got enough TRs layoung around, even if Hub 3 wouldn't survive.

I would take 2 empty TRs to Hub 3... maybe even 3.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 04:25									#182
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That's about it for the moment. I think this concludes all planning for the turn, so I'm going to keep it here for a couple of hours before playing the turn. This way, the American part of our team has ample time to comment as well. I'll play the turn at or around 3 am GMT (4 am for me).

Recap:
- this means we'll land all our land forces, including 6 new MIs and 1 settler on Abilene 78.
- In the empty TR next to the square, I propose to take 3 settlers, and 13 M.
- Further, in the position forking Abilene and Tiperrary, I would put 3 settlers, and 26 M. On top, there will be 3 empty TRs (2 needed for chaining next turn), 3 DD, 3/4 DD, and a CV (with F on air sup).
- On Hub 3, I would put 2 empty TR.

All movement as indicated, only the DDs on the S fleet are going to fan out to see if we could catch a sub.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 04:42									#183
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Yes, bombarding the DD stack looks a better bet than ramming it.

	15-11-2004 04:48									#184
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I can't wait to see what GoW land. Hopefully it'll take some of those 60+ arty off our stack. Speaking of GoW, I think MZ is away this weekend, so we haven't had a reply to our Computers negotiation. If we have some MI and GoW don't that helps us even more, and the only way they can have them is if we sent Computers accepted - which we presumably don't have to do as the deal's not been concluded.

	15-11-2004 05:12									#185
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I don't remember on PTW, but in C3C fighter bombing is nearly useless. This means anything else is better, except for deperate measures.

	15-11-2004 05:16									#186
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I'd attack those DD's now. Defensive bombardment will have a 40% chance to hit. The 4/5's (50-66%) are break even or in our favor. The 2/3 (80-90%) and 1/4 (82-94%) are almost sure kills. (odds DB hit-DB miss)

Let those ships go and we face them at full health in the near future, with them being able to hide in coastal cities and strike out, or strike from under cover of BB. We could also lose Hub 3 very easily or lose a couple extra Transports.

	15-11-2004 05:26									#187
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Guys, I am a little uncomfortable with the plan as it stands, in that the combined fleet will be subject to Arty attacks.

How about we instead execute the landing at Q77 if possible, and then stand off at Landing44?

Yes, we would then be vulnerable to all of the Lego BB and DDs, but they don't have that many effectives in any case.

	15-11-2004 05:28									#188
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BTW, this would still provide a fork onto Quanto and Sando.

	15-11-2004 05:32									#189
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The empty Transports aren't worth much to us right now, having finished their job. If they draw Artillery fire, then at least they are diverting that from our land based stack. Basically, every Lego Artillery which shoots at a Transport saves us a Tank. In some cases it may even save us 2 Tanks.

	15-11-2004 05:35									#190
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I disagree... the Marines are still one heckuva part our attack force!

	15-11-2004 05:43									#191
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I guess that I am further advocating another point: Enough messing around with split forces... one does that for surprise, among other reasons, and one must admit that the cat is now well and truly out of the bag.

Unload all land forces (only 1 Settler) onto Q77. Consolidate ALL forward ships at Landing44. Thusly, we have a fully protected and semi-unknown Marine threat on Sando, but most importantly the threat of ALL of our Marines and ALL of our forward fastmovers on Quanto.

	15-11-2004 05:44									#192
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And our landing is not next to a fort.

	15-11-2004 05:44									#193
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Back to the DD vs DD warfare.

When attacking a DD is expected to lose:
.4 HP from defensive bombardment one time
.33 HP for each round of combat.

When defending a DD is expected to lose:
.66 HP for each round of combat.

1 round losses: .73a .66d
2 round losses: 1.06a 1.32d
3 round losses: 1.39a 1.98d
4 round losses: 1.75a 2.64d

It's better to attack than defend if the battle lasts more than one round.

We can bombard first, then have defensive bombardment though. That gives us .8 one time when "defending".

1 round losses: 1.13a .66d
2 round losses: 1.46a 1.32d
3 round losses: 1.79a 1.98d
4 round losses: 2.15a 2.64d

Still it's better to attack than defend if the battle takes more than 2 rounds.

	15-11-2004 05:45									#194
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus I disagree... the Marines are still one heckuva part our attack force!

And they won't be in empty Transports...

The Marines will mostly be in Transports that can't be bombarded from shore and can't be hit by the BB's.

	15-11-2004 05:54									#195
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Just fleshing out the idea:

With a full land force landing at Q77, one would anticipate the vast majority of their Arties to bombard that stack from Q.

We could either go ahead with an attack on Q if enough Tanks are still healthy, starting with the Marines to absorb the Arty counter-fire, and finish off with the Tanks.

Otherwise, we could depend on a Marine only attack on Sando, which must surely then be underdefended compared to Quanto... and still be able to pick up the land forces from a newly built landing city, unload them into a captured Sando, and disband the landing city.

	15-11-2004 06:02									#196
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And having over 15 'defensive' units (i.e., Destroyers, Carrier, empty Transports) on top of the fleet effectively negates Lego's local naval strength.

	15-11-2004 06:02									#197
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What happens if Lego uses their BB (after sinking our DD and some Transports) to blockade our new city? The Marines won't be able to get onto their Transports.

	15-11-2004 06:05									#198
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Noting my mention of Alexander last night, think of our landing force as the phalanx, meant to pin the enemy and force a given reaction, and then of our Transports / Marines as our cavalry, able to move quickly and exploit the situation.

	15-11-2004 06:07									#199
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson What happens if Lego uses their BB (after sinking our DD and some Transports) to blockade our new city? The Marines won't be able to get onto their Transports.

Very good point... let me think about that for a minute.

Two points actually: blockade of the landing city, and of course continued blockades fof their own cities.

Gimme a bit to think.

	15-11-2004 06:11									#200
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus I can't wait to see what GoW land. Hopefully it'll take some of those 60+ arty off our stack. Speaking of GoW, I think MZ is away this weekend, so we haven't had a reply to our Computers negotiation. If we have some MI and GoW don't that helps us even more, and the only way they can have them is if we sent Computers accepted - which we presumably don't have to do as the deal's not been concluded.

I've been thinking about this. We did cancel an accepted (from their side) deal on the negotiations table. Do we need to resolve this before next turn? I don't think it will matter: they won't be able to take a city either, I guess. Which means that it doesn't matter to them whether they get Computers this turn or next. It could only spark some good will...

DeepO

	15-11-2004 06:17									#201
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Take your time Theseus. The discussion isn't over yet.

Q77 has a bit of problem in that it will mean all our transports will be in range of all ships we see. We will lose nearly all of them. That gives away our mobile advantage with Marines. I think we should keep that, for at least one more turn. The reason is that we need to threaten more cities, or any attack next turn will fail. We can expect to be mobile in case our settlers survive, but face at least one major battle. If a city is defended by 5 less infs, because they are in the South guarding for marine threats, it's worth far more than risking those units.

But proof me wrong, and I'll gladly adapt my views. I'm no general

DeepO

	15-11-2004 06:18									#202
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson What happens if Lego uses their BB (after sinking our DD and some Transports) to blockade our new city? The Marines won't be able to get onto their Transports.

OK, here are my thoughts:

We need to force the issue of where they blockade. By leaving the fleet at Landing4 instead of 44, they must blockade three tiles around Sando and one in front of Quanto... even then, they will prolly max out at three ships on any given tile, at least one of which will be somewhat damaged.

We need to run some calcs, but I believe that our Destroyers, backed up by empty Transports ON THE ATTACK, can break through at either of Sando or Quanto.

This configuration will guaranty the integrity of our two elements, the phalanx (landing force) and the cavalry (Transports/Marines). The downside is that the fleet will be vulnerable to Arty fire... on the other hand, such Arty would be dramatically exposed, and even if Lego did such and then forted the site and defended it, the defenders would still be technically not fortified, so they'd have to really load up the site (taking away from defense of the cities).

	15-11-2004 06:19									#203
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To get from our new city to Sand requires 4 movement. Which means our Transports would need to be within 1 tile of the new city. Thus they would be open for land based bombardment.

To effectively blockade us from Sand they would only need to have ships at NC (new city) 7 and 8, or 7 and 78. They could blockade Quanto 4 as well. So 3 tiles to cover to negate our M completely.

	15-11-2004 06:24									#204
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Aeson: about DD vs DD attack: You're kind of missing my point. Sure, the odds are in our favour when attacking, but that doesn't really matter as long as there is a chance that the outcome will be less preferable to us.

If we bombard, and keep our 4 ships intact, we will for 100% certain guard our transports against that stack. Worst case scenario is that we lose those 4 DDs. However, there is a possibility we will do better, and can take another ship.

In case we directly attack them, we no longer have that guarantee. We will almost certainly lose 1 ship. We will certainly lose ships as defenders too, because they are shot to 1/4 DD. Further, the ships that survive are more susceptable to bombardment, as they will have lost hps in the attack. In all, there is a chance that whatever is left over from the attack is able to sink a TR. I'm not saying the chance is big, but it is there, and very real.

So yes, attacking might be better in the long run, as it will cost us less ships at first. But our marines are going to be safest now with those ships not attacking the Lego stack.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 06:25									#205
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO Q77 has a bit of problem in that it will mean all our transports will be in range of all ships we see. We will lose nearly all of them. DeepO

The way I figure it, we will be landing almost exactly 100 units. So that's 12 totally empty Transports, plus one if we move in the nearest hub ships, plus then 6 DDs, and 2 Carriers.

And that's just the defense, which WE know about.

What Lego will see will be a stunning armada, because they;ll also see the add'l 7-8 Transports... and not know what is in there! But they WILL know that 12 or so of the total MUST be empty, so why bother to attack? They MUST go to a defensive blockade of both Quanto and Sando.

	15-11-2004 06:30									#206
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson To get from our new city to Sand requires 4 movement. Which means our Transports would need to be within 1 tile of the new city. Thus they would be open for land based bombardment. To effectively blockade us from Sand they would only need to have ships at NC (new city) 7 and 8, or 7 and 78. They could blockade Quanto 4 as well. So 3 tiles to cover to negate our M completely.

If our fleet is at Landing4 (or Q774), they cannot blockade us from Sando other than by covering the three sea tiles adjacent to the city.

	15-11-2004 06:32									#207
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Two side points, mostly for amusement:

* How cool would it be to post in the Battle Report threads that we broke through a BB blockade using attacking Transports!!

* Our post count for this turn is rapidly turning INSAAAAANE!!!

	15-11-2004 06:32									#208
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There won't be 12 TRs covering, it's a bit less. We need 2 (or 3) for chaining. And they can reach the site with some 12 ships, maybe even more. They will most certainly go for it, as they should.

Any stack of 20 art, and 20 inf is virtually impossible to take on right now, which adds to the problems. 20 art can bring all our DDs to 1 hp. They won't be able to sink the tiniest of blockades, and Lego will have 12 ships to place around us.

In the other scenario, the empty transports still serve a purpose, both as protection, and to draw fire. As most BBs can't reach them, they can't be so easily destroyed... But their life is over anyway, I don't think many will get home. If we can rush a barracks somewhere with one of them, I won't hesitate

DeepO

	15-11-2004 06:39									#209
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus If our fleet is at Landing4 (or Q774), they cannot blockade us from Sando other than by covering the three sea tiles adjacent to the city.

They still only need to blockade 2 tiles. We have 5 movement. It's 4 movement from NC to Sand. To load Marines and preserve their attack we have to move into the city, 4 movement left. We can't go around a "partial" blockade.

	15-11-2004 06:43									#210
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Correction: You don't need chainers to reach Q77, the chainer can get there directly.

Which leads to the following: if we either forget about attacking the 3/5 BB, or if we risk the chainer for 4 tiles in the sea-of-subs without escort, we can reach Q477. Which means we don't have to disband units to make room for our 6 MI and 2 settlers, we can put 8 marines overboard at Q77.

Those marines won't do much good, but at least their deaths can be a distraction to Lego. Otherwise, we simply need to disband them ourselves, without the possibility a Lego unit will die.

The risk: losing our chainer, full of 6 MI and 2 S. Or, leaving the 3/5 BB in reach of our Hub 2 for next turn.

BTW, we should build a TR in Hurricane... there is a possibility the chain will survive, but we're out of TRs.

DeepO