15-11-2004 06:48									#211
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Aeson They still only need to blockade 2 tiles. We have 5 movement. It's 4 movement from NC to Sand. To load Marines and preserve their attack we have to move into the city, 4 movement left. We can't go around a "partial" blockade.

I am proposing not landing the Marines at Q77, but rather leaving them onboard the fleet at Q774.

I am preparing a summary post.

	15-11-2004 06:51									#212
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Correction: You don't need chainers to reach Q77, the chainer can get there directly. Which leads to the following: if we either forget about attacking the 3/5 BB, or if we risk the chainer for 4 tiles in the sea-of-subs without escort, we can reach Q477. Which means we don't have to disband units to make room for our 6 MI and 2 settlers, we can put 8 marines overboard at Q77. Those marines won't do much good, but at least their deaths can be a distraction to Lego. Otherwise, we simply need to disband them ourselves, without the possibility a Lego unit will die. The risk: losing our chainer, full of 6 MI and 2 S. Or, leaving the 3/5 BB in reach of our Hub 2 for next turn. BTW, we should build a TR in Hurricane... there is a possibility the chain will survive, but we're out of TRs. DeepO

Sorry, but I don;t see the second Settler for this at home??

	15-11-2004 06:55									#213
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Are you looking at the save? We built one during build phase. We've got 2 of them at home, and both should get to Legoland this turn. Next turn, we could easily build another 2... might be a good idea, as it will create interesting tactical maneuvers.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 06:57									#214
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

I just hit enter during the build phase.

Summary coming up.

	15-11-2004 07:01									#215
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

OK, to make very very clear what I am proposing, at the end of this turn, we would have:

Landing force at Q77:
4 Mech Infantry
22 Infantry
68 Tanks
1 Settler
1 Explorer
(Total of 96 units)

Fleet at Q774:
6 Destroyers
2 Carriers
22 Transports
(15 empty)
47 Marines
4 Settlers
4 Workers
1 Explorer
(Total of 56 units)
2 Fighters

Hub Two:
2 Destroyers
1 Transport
(all from Hub One)

Hub One:
1 Destroyer
1 Transport
MechInfs and Settlers from home, not sure of the mix

[Maybe leave 1 Destroyer back at Hub One instead of Two, to travel with the transported units]

[Need another Transport from mainland]

[Sidenote: In terms of builds, let's remember the open capacity on the Carriers and hopefully soon-to-be-captured cities]

	15-11-2004 07:04									#216
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

I understand we can get unlucky attacking Lego's S DDs and have less cover for our S Transports. That said, there are other ways we can get unlucky while attacking Lego's S DDs will give us more cover.

Expected results from attacking give us more cover ships in relation to known and unknown threats than when not attacking. Poor results from attacking give us equal cover ships in relation to known and unknown threats.

Unknown threats are what Tipperary is building, possible build queue switch in Abilene (doubtful), and Lego Subs. When we don't attack, we are guaranteed to defend against all unknown threats with laden Transports. When we do attack, we expect to gain at least 1, probably 2, cover ships which can deal with unknown threats.

So pick where you want to try to avoid "bad luck". RNG or what we can't see.

I think killing Lego's ships is the kicker. We get good odds now, we won't get them again probably.

	15-11-2004 07:05									#217
	Tired of ads?

Question for thought: If Lego, what would you do with your artillery, air force, and navy if faced with that threat?
____________

Amy is making me watch 'Law and Order' as a friend is acting in it tonight... back at 10pm EST!!

I shot a PM to Arrian to see if maybe he wanted to chime in.

BTW, I want to compliment DeepO (again )... it is amazing that we are where we are!!

	15-11-2004 07:15									#218
	Support Apolyton

I don't see why doing this up N is any better than doing it down S. It brings the BB into play when they don't need to be, and puts our Marines in range of shore bombardment.

If Lego does what they should, we lose all our Marines and most of our Settlers.

Down S we are guaranteed (attacking or defending the DD's ) that most of our Marines and Settlers will survive. They can't blockade either of the cities either.

	15-11-2004 07:37									#219
	Increase Your PM Length

Theseus, I have to agree with Aeson here. The odds seem better in the South to me. I'm not saying the North isn't possible, but it's a bit more dangerous and doesn't bring much new.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 07:40									#220
	Put an end to popups!

As to the DDs attacking or defending: I'm still not sure. Attacking would give us the initiative, though. That's certainly a plus...
What if we do the first one, see how it goes, do the next, and so forth?

But let's first decide on a proper invasion spot, and plan. Otherwise the discussion on whether to attack the DDs or not is unneeded. I surely vote for Abilene 77.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 07:44									#221
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

BTW, to add one more idea to the brainstorm: we could land the marines, infs, S, and MI somewhere, and keep the tanks on board. In that case, the marines will take the damage from Lego's attack, instead of tanks. However, we would have to land all our marines to be certain the settler will survive, so any marine threat is out of the question.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 08:10									#222
	Increase the size of your Attachments

My opinion is Abilene 77 is better.

	15-11-2004 08:15									#223
	Put an end to popups!

Keeping the Tanks on ships is interesting.

	15-11-2004 08:31									#224
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I'm afraid keeping the tanks on ships can only work when we're absolutely certain the ships won't sink. I don't think we can guarantee that, unless we bring all the transports together. And it means all marines on land, another disadvantage... a nice thought, perhaps, but not really workable.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 08:34									#225
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Okay, one decision needs to be made: Either I'll start to play the turn right now, or we wait another 12h. It's 4.30 am, I don't have any problems keeping awake for a few hours to play the save. But if it's better to let others comment as well, I'll gladly wait until the morning. In any case, we should try to get this save played before tomorrow evening / night.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 09:04									#226
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Definitely wait... among others, Arrian has a habit of checking in at 'poly when he gets to work on Monday morning.

	15-11-2004 09:10									#227
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Aeson I don't see why doing this up N is any better than doing it down S. It brings the BB into play when they don't need to be, and puts our Marines in range of shore bombardment. If Lego does what they should, we lose all our Marines and most of our Settlers.

I don't understand the downside as you portray it... even if Lego uses 60 Arty to bombard the fleet to redline, there are over 20 ships to absorb attacks before the transported Marines are at risk.

Am I wrong about this?

	15-11-2004 09:17									#228
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Theseus, I have to agree with Aeson here. The odds seem better in the South to me. I'm not saying the North isn't possible, but it's a bit more dangerous and doesn't bring much new. DeepO

In my mind, the Southern plan means continuing to wander around, while the Northern plan means consolidating our forces and STRIKING... I can't stress enough how important I believe it to be to pose a threat that includes all of our land and Marine forces, and what that will require on Lego's part, and then what opportunities will thusly be afforded to us.

Don't get me wrong though... I am OK with the planned southern approach, but I think we can do better.

	15-11-2004 09:18									#229
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by Aeson I don't see why doing this up N is any better than doing it down S...

Also, the North Plan works much better for chaining and reinforcement from the homeland.

	15-11-2004 09:57									#230
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I have PMed a number of our other stalwarts and strays; hopefully we can gain further comments, and DeepO can play the turn without too much delay... although I doubt any of the teams would begrudge us a day.

	15-11-2004 10:11									#231
	Get a bigger avatar today!

I don't mind at all to wait for other opinions, on the contrary.

Some other random decision to be made: Do we expose Lego's spy? I would do it, if only to get even Cost is 310 gold, if I'm not mistaken, so it would cost us nearly 7 inf to MI upgrades.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 10:29									#232
	Support Apolyton

I must not be expressing myself well... to me the North Plan is compelling.

Bedtime... well, not totally true, as I am and have been obsessed with this Ancient Civs scenario I've been setting up... I need to run another debug playtest of the AI civs tonight.

I'll be around as of 8am EST tomorrow.

	15-11-2004 11:59									#233
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Can someone check for certain whether you can bombard empty transports to expose full ones to sink?

This is all-important to answer. If the units sink in the Transports, we can't go N. Our Marines would be guaranteed to be sunk. If the units transfer to other Transports, I'd be willing to do it, but don't think it's better than S still.

	15-11-2004 12:02									#234
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

I don't see a point in exposing their spy now. They won't get any new information from it this turn. The upgrades or other commerce concerns (do we run with a 1000g for +50gpt interest?) are more important.

	15-11-2004 14:37									#235
	Suffering from ads?

If you can get to a fully loaded transport by bombarding a DD escort to 1 or 2 hp (which does work), then it seems very likely that it would work the same way for empty and loaded transports in the same stack.

As for whethe the units transfer to another transport; the closest I've come to testing this was with suicide galleys - send out five at the same time with a unit in one of them, and see if the unit transfers to a non-sinking ship. It doesn't. It sank on the 2nd turn, while there were still two empty galleys around. I can't imagine that combat would be any different (although you never know...)

In which case, they count the number of units on land to figure out how many empty transports there are, bombard with artillery until DDs and that many transports are injured, and then send in the fleet against fully loaded, full health transports. Granted, they'll be attacking with injured units against full health ones, with defensive bombard from stacked DDs, but with the odds already heavily in favour of attacking ships vs transports, we'd figure to lose the majority of forces still at sea.

(Yes, I know this is what Aeson just said, but I'm clarifying it in case it wasn't clear to everyone).

	15-11-2004 16:26									#236
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Bold thinking from T, but surely, it is being argued, Lego will prioritise the destruction of a stack of Marined-up Trannies.

Question is, how many arty would they need, how many trannies could they sink, and what alternative targets would there be for their artillery? So much depends on GoW's landing. Lego may well be more protective of their northern Wonder-land than the south once they know that GoW is coming too. GoW might land easily and provide some compelling arty-targets up north.

ND can spy for GoW, but if we knew what was defending GoW's target cities now, we could maybe predict GoW's move and what Lego will face to their east on their turn. Could we afford to spy for them and get the cash next turn?

	15-11-2004 16:47									#237
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

moving units in sinking transports: there might be a way around this, but I haven't tried it. If you've got 5 galleys, and wake the unit on one of them, doesn't it then jump to the other ships? I would believe it does, as it technically is not on a ship at the end of the turn.

I'm not certain on the rest of the characteristics.

Spying: we got lucky this turn. Immediately after being exposed, we could plant another spy... next time we might not get so lucky. If we expose their spy, we will have 70% chance that we start next turn with a spy present. If we don't, we risk Lego exposing us again next turn, after which we've got only 30% to plant a spy. And without a spy, no investigation of cities.

I'm not sure, but I think we don't have Wall Street. We only have a couple of banks, no stock exchanges... all went to unit building.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 16:49									#238
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Oh, and new info from a spy: we built 2 new settlers. That makes it a very deliberate tactic. Also the reach of 7 settlers is a lot different from the reach of 5. That in itself is reason enough for me to try to hide our troop strength.

DeepO

	15-11-2004 19:08									#239
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Wow. Lots of action over the weekend, eh?

I have not even come close to digesting it all. I'll try and figure out exactly what's going on and then post my thoughts.

-Arrian

	15-11-2004 19:36									#240
	Remove this text

So we're looking at a conventional landing on Abilene 78?

Smart play from Lego so far, and good luck with the naval battles (though, as DeepO mentioned, they did have the advantage). So we're in a pickle.

My first thought is that we could really use some more ships.

My second is that I hate landing on flat ground, but it doesn't look like that can be helped.

My third is that I think we should hit the Lego destroyers.

-Arrian