13-11-2004 23:30									#61
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Oh, and note that there is one tile used in Quanto by another city at Q998, Q999, Q996, or Q66.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 23:32									#62
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You mean we can chain our way to Abilene? We can, but that would require dumping a lot of S fleet forces on grass, unprotected.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 23:33									#63
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Oh, and Abilene is not on a hill.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 23:35									#64
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If we take Abilene we can get a Settler to them and build a town on them too. At least then Tanks can't blitz and have to stay in the open for counterattacks instead of attack, retreat to city... or attack again.

	13-11-2004 23:36									#65
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Good point. Investigating Abilene.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 23:36									#66
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I think it's worth investigating Abilene to see. Only 8 of our 21 TR can get there, so maybe it will have less than half the defense that Quanto has.

	13-11-2004 23:37									#67
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please note that lego only have ONE ruber. Cut that and we have a big bonus (although they can trade with vox the turn after we cut it)

	13-11-2004 23:41									#68
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Cost of investigating Abilene: 209 gold

Not shown: Bank, Cath, uni, factory, hospital.
72 spt

defenders:
- 10 I
- 6 T
- 1 reg T
- 11 Art
- 2 bombers
- 5 Cav
- 2 TR

A little better than Quanto, I think.

DeepO

	13-11-2004 23:48									#69
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I don't know. Very close call. We can get more units into Quanto if it falls. More likely to get into Abilene, but won't have many (if any) units rolling.

	13-11-2004 23:48									#70
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Krill, we already knew Lego only had one rubber: when we were out, they didn't show up in the trade scene. So they couldn't trade to us... 1 rubber. Now, where is it, that's the question

DeepO

	13-11-2004 23:51									#71
	Increase Your PM Length

It's my feeling this is too close for us... maybe wait until Vulture can sim them out, but it's my feeling we won't have over 50% chance of capturing any city. A tank defending is still 8 defense, where a inf only has 10. That's not such a difference... add the arts, and we're looking at a virtual 20 infs... Too much for 47, or even 55 M.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 00:04									#72
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We need 6 chainers into Abilene, I think. That leaves 2 TR which can enter the city as defenders. Not much, but better than nothing.

But still... would you agree we wait for Vulture to sim it?

DeepO

	14-11-2004 00:07									#73
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Wait for Vulture.

Anybody got his phone number.

	14-11-2004 00:08									#74
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In that case, see you in an hour or so

DeepO

	14-11-2004 00:14									#75
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I think if we land regularly we can expect to have better odds of hurting Lego. The extent of that damage will be far less than if we have a rolling invasion though.

Once the threat of splitting cities is mostly gone, our Tanks will have as bad odds at taking cities as our Marines do now. They'll have individually better chances to win, but will face more Infantry.

Then Lego will be able to reinforce more as well. We won't get any more ships through after this turn, at the rate the naval side of things has been progressing. In a turn we'll have to deal with 5 more Tanks/Inf in each city we can hit too.

I'd say if it's 50:50 or around there, we should go for Quanto. We'll lose if we try slow but sure in this case.

	14-11-2004 00:38									#76
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Yeah he who dares wins, but if you're taking a chance for the rolling attack you gotta have a good back up plan for landing all the rest of the troops somewhere if the amphib fails. It'd be better to hold off on the last chain from the homeland untill the last minute so you can bring MI rather than marines if it looks bad for the marines.

	14-11-2004 00:55									#77
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Let's wait for any kind of sim before deciding, though. I agree the gains could be very high, but the risk is also something...

DeepO

	14-11-2004 01:16									#78
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The clouds are all gone now, so I'm headed to the beach for a few hours.

We're in 4th place. We'll need something to break our way to win this. At this point I think we have two options for that to happen. Win big on Lego, rather quickly, getting to 3rd place, and hope GoW and ND fight it out enough we can sneak in with a Spaceship. Or leave Lego to compete with ND/GoW, and hope they hurt each other enough we can sneak in with a Spaceship.

The only way we win big is if both we and GoW take a city with Marines. We can still beat Lego if one or the other of us takes a city (and rolls with it), but it will be a long fight and ND wins in the meantime. If neither of us can take a city with our Marines, I think Lego will eventually win the war, and ND wins in the meantime.

So if we take Quanto with our Marines we allow for option 1. If we can't take Quanto, we're forced to option 2. If we don't attack Quanto, we can't get option 1 anyways, and will be forced to option 2.

I'm not sure we really risk much by attacking Quanto in that light. The units are obviously risked, but they won't help us win the game otherwise.

	14-11-2004 01:46									#79
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I ran with no terrain bonus, metro, HE, forted and 30 marines will kill 10 Inf 70% in 100 trails. I did not factor in the arty.

Then I ran with 20 inf and 45 marines and it was 0% for us. I used 20 inf to simulate the tanks and arties.

	14-11-2004 02:36									#80
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45 M for 20 I... that's nearly what we've got now without backup (47 to be precise). At 0%, I guess the choice is obvious.

vmxa, would it be possible to have 55 M for 20 I as well, please? That's about the best we can do in Quanto.

Abilene would be more in the order of 55 M for 18 I.

Does this simulation take into account promotions?

DeepO

	14-11-2004 02:43									#81
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And Aeson, I agree with you. We have to risk something if we want to win. We set out on that premise, and have played like that so far... however this was not expected. I don't want to be overly cautious, but if we don't get 50% chance of breaking through the Lego defenses, we shouldn't do it.

We could take this in stages, though, to minimize the risk. It's going to be a lot of work, but that's less important right now. If we see a 50% of succeeding, we could fight the first 8 battles, and do the calculation again for the remainder. If chances increase, continue, if chances decrease we stop, and rescue what we can. We could move the M transport per transport...

But one point: let's take it slow here, and have precise information before continueing. There is no rush, if we need 3 days than so be it. We've got the troop strengths, I don't think any more scouting is going to influence our decision, so let's wait for the numbers, and decide on that. The 45 M for 20 I at least didn't sound right to me.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 02:45									#82
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Oh, if you've got a calculator somewhere for stack results, I would certainly be interested to try it out.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 03:01									#83
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there's this one, but it doesn't do stack results

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=75765

	14-11-2004 03:05									#84
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Hmmm... but stack results are hard to extrapolate... maybe vmxa was using something else?

DeepO

	14-11-2004 03:07									#85
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http://mil-sim.net/ here is what I used.

	14-11-2004 03:07									#86
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Here is what it looks like:

Attachment: clipboard.jpg
This has been downloaded 44 time(s).

	14-11-2004 03:10									#87
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Ok, 34 wins 17 survivors at 2.54 HP. Defenders 66 wins, 3.45 survivors at 1.07 hp.

This was done with 55 marines at 10 att vs 20 inf with 10 def. HE flag, metro and forted. All as 4hp vets.

	14-11-2004 03:19									#88
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Now if I run just one trial we win, so I take that as we have a shot.

Me I am inclined to take the shot. If we don't do a landing or a capture, it will just get worse, unless GoW goes in and makes it easier for us.

	14-11-2004 03:21									#89
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Funny I ran 6 trials and it came out 50/50.

	14-11-2004 03:47									#90
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They have 10 Inf and an artillary to defend each one. So for the first 10 attacks (art assisted) it would be.

Marine vs Inf in Metro, Grassland, Fortified protected by bombard of 12, vet vs vet.

Defender wins

95.336% of the time

Given that the defender wins the average remaining HP would be

2.93627

(Not taking into account promotions)


Then you'd have to fight the promoted and untouched Inf again, before the tanks.

Marine vs Tank in Metro, GL, fortified, vet vs vet.

Defender wins

87.589% of the time

Given a defensive victory, ave remaining HP would be

2.38788

(Not taking into account promotions)


Marine vs 3 HP Inf in same situation (w/o art)

Defender wins

82.424% of the time

Given def victory ave HP remaining would be

1.75844

Before promotions, although all would be promoted if they hadn't already been