14-11-2004 03:52									#91
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

It's the tanks that'll really screw you, that and the pretty much guarenteed promotions for all units. If it was just the Infs it might be doable but even the Cav's in ambeiele have a 43% chance of winning on def...

The marines perform better defending against tanks in the open even if down to 3 HP after art bombing.

If you do manage to take a city with Marines, Iwa Jima might be a good name considering the amount of Marines that would be lost taking it.

Last edited by OPD on 14-11-2004 at 03:58

	14-11-2004 05:10									#92
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Great tool, vmxa

55M, against 20 I for 1000 runs gives 97.9% chance Lego will win.

55M, against 18 I for 1000 runs gives 90% chance Lego wins.

55M, against 16 I gives 63.9% Lego wins.

It's close, as you can see, but Quanto is out of the question, I fear. 50% loss ratio I can live with, but >90% loss ratio? Too much risk for me.

I think I might find a way of using this tool in a bit more detail, so we can have the effect of 55M against 10I and 10 T.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 05:19									#93
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Forget about computing that combined combat, the art always screw things up. Without them, I get something close to 99% chance of defeat. But I'm doubting the method I use...

DeepO

	14-11-2004 05:26									#94
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Marines are only 6 Defense right? So the Tanks will be defending before they do.

We can land 12 MI, 22 I, 39 M (8 to be disbanded for chaining purposes), 68 T, 5 S on Quanto 21 right? It might be enough for Lego to only bombard, and not attack.

It will take about 3-4 Art to get each MI out of the way. That only leaves about 1 per Inf, which would get about 1/3 of our Inf out of the way. Our M and T should still be intact.

Then ~30 Tanks for Lego against 14 Inf. Our M and T shouldn't have to face more than 10-15 Tanks at most. That's 5-7 Tanks dead, and a few more that will be low HP next turn. Leaving us with around 55 Tanks and 5 Settlers to play with next turn. Maybe more if the 2/4 MI show up between the I and T?

I think that this is probably what we should do.

	14-11-2004 05:37									#95
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

It makes more sense and IF GoW lands or trys an invasion of a city, Lego will have other things to worry about.

They will not be in a position to roll every art and unit on thier soil to hit us, if GoW is in the equation.

The problem with any tools is it is just a run of the RNG and does not have to be the case at all. Better than nothing, but in atual play things could be who knows what.

Last edited by vmxa1 on 14-11-2004 at 05:43

	14-11-2004 05:39									#96
	Increase Your PM Length

In the original manual Marines are 10/8, not sure if that has changed over the patches and such. I just don't use them.

Now we are going to wish we had a few less marines and more tanks and MI.

	14-11-2004 05:44									#97
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

If we land and have 55 Tanks available to hit Quanto next turn, and they up Quanto to 25 defenders (should easily be able to do this...), we can only take it 30% of the time, with very few Tanks with movement left. That will be the end for us I think, bunker down and Lego will chip away. We won't have any Tanks to do anything with for at least another turn.

55 Tanks vs 25 defenders in Abilene would give us 72% to take the city. Still not much left to do any other work with.

5 Settlers can get us 5 tiles inland. 7 would give us a range of 7 tiles before initial attack. 55 16.8.8 units could do a lot of damage elsewhere...

So I think we should bring 2 Settlers and 6 MI over, land everything but Marines on Quanto 21. Swap the Marines from N Transports to S Transports. All S fleet DD not clearing for Subs attack Lego's navy down there. If bad luck ensues, land the Marines, else keep them afloat. Move the S Transports 222. Shore bombardment be damned! If Lego uses Artillery to hurt our Transports, at least our Marines are "defending" the main stack. We may have a couple DD defending, and will have 3 empty Transports along with the 5 filled with Marines.

That allows us to hit Tip with up to 39 Marines next turn. That way they can't focus as much on defending other cities.

	14-11-2004 05:46									#98
	Increase Your PM Length

Marines are 8/6/1, yes. Somehow I thought they were 8 defense.

It's a pity, but I don't see another option than landing in the open. Preferably on hill or in a fortress... how do we scout: move a TR with M into view, or use the fighter? With 2 fighters nearby, we will have 2 less bombers to worry about. Maybe we kill them, maybe not, but at least bombers couldn't get to the MI / I / T. If the carriers survive long enough, of course.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 05:52									#99
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Hmmm... sounds like a plan. We could create another fork on Abilene and Tipperary, needing more defenders in those cities. It will be a bloody thing, though... Abilene was already building another DD, so that is one TR down, no matter if we destroy the stack in the South or not.

However... we might have some protection from empty transports. And 2 more DDs are getting closer, which might be sub sweepers next turn.

This starts to look good. One remark: we do not know the situation on Q21... we might have to fight our way onto land.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 05:56									#100
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Use one of the 3/4 DD in the S fleet. Move it 69888. Then the other 3/4 DD moves or 66221. That leaves us 3 4/4 DD to take out some of Lego's DD down S. S urvivors could get to Abilene 41, which would allow them to cover the Transports if they moved to that tile too. We will be able to outrun Lego's BB now with those Marines and keep them a threat.

	14-11-2004 06:00									#101
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I doubt they would have more than 1-2 units at Quanto 21, but yes, we may have to use some Marines to get onto land.

The new DD may go for the unprotected N fleet Transports, and we should have at least a 3/4 DD covering the S fleet. Probably a 3/4 and 2/4 to go along with it.

	14-11-2004 06:02									#102
	Remove this text

The biggest flaw in the plan is that Lego can bombard Roads and Rails around our Tank stack. If they do that, we don't get attacked as hard, but can't move much either.

	14-11-2004 06:08									#103
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

They don't have to bombard, they can pillage with cavs. After attacking us even... which wuold make our settlers useless.

I'll move the 1st 3/4 DD 69 to see Q21.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:09									#104
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

erhm... one second. I only moved it 6, but there are "a few" units in that fortress. I'll count...

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:09									#105
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Waitwaitwait... SHITE, sorry I wasn;t around today!!

First thing: Are we sure Arty zero-bombard amphib attacks?

	14-11-2004 06:10									#106
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

There are 22 I, and 10 art on that square

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:11									#107
	Remove this text

T, I'm not sure about that, no. I assumed it did...

Oh, and not much has happened so far, there is plenty of time to comment.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:15									#108
	Remove this text

I am testing it now with my new-found scenario skills.

	14-11-2004 06:19									#109
	Tired of ads?

I wonder where all of Lego's defenders are. We've seen 22 + 10 + 10 I. Not counting Forkmouth, which, logically, would also have 10 I. That's a total of 52 I already 'known'... 39 I missing. I doubt GoW is going to be able to break through, so in those cities are another 30 odd I.

Further, we spotted 10 + 11 + 10 Art, with another likely 10 in Forkmouth. 41 Art in total, 21 missing (most likely in Jackson and Dye fields.)

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:20									#110
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

great, take your time.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:20									#111
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Damn... confirmed, yes they do.

	14-11-2004 06:24									#112
	Tired of ads?

The Legolians must have been using the same tool as vmxa...

47 M, against 22 I, no art, in a fortress gives 99.8% Lego wins.

55 M against 22 I, no art, gives 93.8% Lego wins.

In reality, the odds will be even less favourable because of the art support.

Q21 is not possible.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:26									#113
	Get a bigger avatar today!

If we would go for Q2, we run into the problem that we can't outrun the BBs. The first few can reach us...

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:28									#114
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

The alternative is landing on grass. Which I don't like, our losses will be a lot bigger for sure.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:28									#115
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

What? 22 Inf out there? We should investigate Forkmouth.

	14-11-2004 06:30									#116
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Aeson, we will run into 10 I, 10 T, and 10 art in Forkmouth... they've got enough units for this, even making sure GoW can't break through either.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:36									#117
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

If going for Q2, we would leave a stack of 8 TR in reach of 5 BBs and a new DD (if we can take out all ships in the S Lego fleet). 3 of those are empty... if Lego has counted corrrectly, they can bomb all hp off the defenders, and take out the 5 TR with 6 ships. Sigh.

DeepO

	14-11-2004 06:39									#118
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

We can attack the 2/4 BB with our Hub 2 DD. That would leave (hopefully) a 2/4 BB and 1/4 BB that can attack from the N. A new 4/4 DD built, and at least a 1/3 DD from the S.

We'd have 3 empty Transports and a 3/4 DD. They could be bombarded down by land or air. I still think it works for us though. We'll have some Marines left to attack with, rather than wait until everything else is dead and defend with them.

	14-11-2004 06:46									#119
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

DeepO, do you still have movement left on that 3/4 DD taht checked out Q21?

If possible, I'd like to check as much as we can of Q2, and the route between the norhern Trannies and there.

	14-11-2004 06:47									#120
	Increase Your PM Length

Also the Hub 2 Transport can be left in the way, might chew up an attack.

We could leave 8 or 16 of the Marines in the 11 Transport stack, which they might not be able to reach with enough ships to sink all of them. (I'm guessing all their Subs aren't within 4 tiles...)