12-04-2005 16:46									#151
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Is it conceivable that one or two from Quebec might cross to the Tories if they could extract suitable assurances from Harper?

It's conceivable but i wouldn't bet on their chances at re-election. And i don't think they could get assurances that would suit them as well as the rest of the Conservatives.

	12-04-2005 16:53									#152
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither ... otherwise it could get pretty lonely during a possible referendum in Quebec should Charest lose his government. Was listening to a guy from Sun publishing on one of the morning radio talk shows. He did not paint a picture that many Canadians should look forward to. A devastated Liberal party, the Tories with few or no prominent voices in Quebec, and then Charest loses to the PQ. Who campaigns for non?

You raise an interesting point. On the other hand, you could also ask " Who campaigns for Oui?".
The PQ is having a leadership crisis, with Bernard Landry being challenged every 6 months it seems. And the problem with the other potential leaders is that they're also associated with the old guard, which doesn't help since the independence movement is seen as an old option.
I guess a lot would depend on how much they can use Gomery to revive the movement.

	12-04-2005 19:37									#153
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quote: Kevin Brennan: As Brault's testimony at the Gomery Inquiry leaks out, I've noticed some on the left (although certainly not all) bemoaning the gift all of this presents to Harper and the Conservatives. It's not much of a step from there to wishing, even subconsciously, that this had never come out. You shouldn't do that. One of the primary reasons the left has suffered in recent years is the widespread belief that government, and politicians, are corrupt, wasteful of money, and so forth. Yes, the sponsorship scandal and things like it certainly re-inforce that belief. But if you want voters to accept big social programs and other spending that may require tax hikes, you really need to rebuild a sense of trust in people. Social programs are only viable in the long term if you have clean and transparent government. Voting for the Liberals to keep the Conservatives out may seem like a good idea in the short term, but in the long term, you're just promoting the basic idea that government is a useless and ineffective pit of bribery and embezzlement, because you keep electing people who see that as just part of the price of doing business. In the long run, that encourages people to think that government is never the best solution for a problem--and if they think that, then why would they ever vote for the NDP? Clean government. It's not just the right thing to do--it's also smart politics.

In the long term, this could be a boon for the NDP (as long as there is no Unite the Left campaign; ugh).

	12-04-2005 21:01									#154
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Odd stuff:
- Females have switched from Libs to all non-Lib parties
- Males have switched from Libs to Consies
- NDP has lost ground in the Maritimes
- NDP has lost ground among the under-25s

And, of course, the Ipsos-Reid poll disagrees about a bunch of stuff.

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	12-04-2005 22:31									#155
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"The Liberal party is starting to look like the `NDP lite' on social issues."
- Pat O'Brien, Liberal MP (London-Fanshawe)

The chap is thinking of switching parties.

	12-04-2005 23:05									#156
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It will be the Conservative's election to lose. I think they're up to the task.

	13-04-2005 00:12									#157
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Thanks St. Leo

That's the data I was looking for last night, and couldn't find.

Awesome.

	13-04-2005 00:15									#158
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Interesting.

The NDP is the party of the poor.

The Liberals of the rich

and the Conservatives of the Middle Class.

	13-04-2005 02:45									#159
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Interesting. Based on the EKOS poll that just came out, here would be my take on the numbers we would get. Seat Share CPC 51.2 BQ 20.3 LIB 17.6 NDP 10.3 GRN 0.7 EKOS poll results 36.2 Conservative 25.0 Liberals 20.5 NDP 12.6 BQ 5.0 GRN

I will laugh my ass of if that happens.

	13-04-2005 07:21									#160
	Suffering from ads?

Yeah gotta love that First Past the Post skewing...

	13-04-2005 07:34									#161
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summary?

JM

	13-04-2005 08:32									#162
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Of the $250 million the Liberals gave to various Quebec ad companies for no actual return, $2.5 million went back directly into the personal pockets of Liberal leaders. AKA embezzlement.

Now that this has come out, Liberals have sunk 20 points in the polls. The Conservatives have been the primary beneficiaries.

When the Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP agree that it's time for a new election, we'll have one.

	13-04-2005 09:07									#163
	Tired of ads?

who are the conservatives?

JM

	13-04-2005 09:08									#164
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are they like Asher and NYE?

or like, umm, Bush?

Jon Miller

	13-04-2005 09:16									#165
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Half NYE half Bush.

	13-04-2005 09:18									#166
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why aren't people more into NDP?

Jon Miller
(not dissing NYE or Asher at all....)

	13-04-2005 09:20									#167
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But the question is, how many people will be scared out of voting for the Conservatives?

	13-04-2005 09:21									#168
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quote: Originally posted by Jon Miller why aren't people more into NDP?

20% isn't bad...

	13-04-2005 09:22									#169
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quote: Originally posted by Jon Miller are they like Asher and NYE? or like, umm, Bush? Jon Miller

The answers you get could be quite funny.

I'm a soft Tory. I feel we need a viable alternative to Liberals to form governments and I identify more with the Tories for fiscal policy and ideas of small government than I could with the NDP as they are presently constituted.

I used to be a fire-breathing Tory who didn't think a Liberal government ever saw a tax it didn't like and a defecit they couldn't top. Then the centre left appropriated the economic argument from the right and I am less loathesome of Liberals.

Now I am fully capable of voting Liberal if the right candidate is running or if I think that the Tories themselves need a wake up call or should sit for 5 in the penalty box, like in the last provincial election.

Asher's economic side wants to be Tory. His human side is having a lot of trouble with politics last I heard. I can't say I blame him. It would be very difficult to support people who by and large seek to deny him human dignity on a fundamental issue.

	13-04-2005 09:25									#170
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quote: Originally posted by Lord Nuclear But the question is, how many people will be scared out of voting for the Conservatives?

That's the 250 million dollar question.

	13-04-2005 09:25									#171
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I'm starting to get excited again.

	13-04-2005 09:27									#172
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The problem with the conservative party is that they're half composed of reasonable people (the NYE branch) and half composed of redneck Western fire-eaters who hate Central Canada and all it stands for, who hate social justice and who hate the fact that we're not the US (the BK branch).

	13-04-2005 09:27									#173
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse I'm starting to get excited again.

No doubt. It is times like these where the NDP could stage a break out.

	13-04-2005 09:29									#174
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This is true multiparty democracy, BTW...

	13-04-2005 09:30									#175
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse The problem with the conservative party is that they're half composed of reasonable people (the NYE branch) and half composed of redneck Western fire-eaters who hate Central Canada and all it stands for, who hate social justice and who hate the fact that we're not the US (the BK branch).

I'm in the center of those two.

	13-04-2005 09:31									#176
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quote: who hate social justice

One correction, who believe social justice must also include unborn children.

	13-04-2005 09:32									#177
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quote: I'm in the center of those two.

You're half reasonable and half idiot?

	13-04-2005 09:34									#178
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse The problem with the conservative party is that they're half composed of reasonable people (the NYE branch) and half composed of redneck Western fire-eaters who hate Central Canada and all it stands for, who hate social justice and who hate the fact that we're not the US (the BK branch).

The problem with that analysis is that the Conservatives field candidates from Winnipeg and going East who simply are overlooked for the most part. Do Quebec Tories hate Central Canada?

You want Robert Stanfield's Party? Elect Eastern Tories. Four or five from Quebec would do wonders.

	13-04-2005 09:35									#179
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse quote: I'm in the center of those two. You're half reasonable and half idiot?

Evidently.

	13-04-2005 09:35									#180
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quote: You're half reasonable and half idiot?

That's sure to placate NYE.