11-04-2005 04:56									#121
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse They don't have any choice as it stands. The conservatives have fallen so low in anglo quebec that liberal votes get siphoned off as much to the NDP as they do to the conservatives.

KH: It doesn't matter who they vote for as long as its not the liberals in terms of who forms the next government.

And the only other party besides the libs who have a snowballs chance in hell of forming a government is the conservatives. Unless you think there's going to be an NDP/Lib coalition, which isn't likely.

Really a vote for anyone but the liberals is a vote for the conservatives. Unless the conservatives really screw up it will be hard for them to walk away from the next election without big gains, if not a minority government.

	11-04-2005 05:17									#122
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Jimmy, what don't you understand: as it stands there are only 4 official parties.. People have to vote for one of them. It won't be the Bloc or the NDP in those areas, and until the conservatives can do something major it won't be them either.

So people vote for the Liberals because they have no other choice.

	11-04-2005 05:19									#123
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By far the most likely to win anglo quebec after the Grits are the new Tories. But even they aren't a realistic option as it stands.

	11-04-2005 07:20									#124
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi More likely they go Conservative than to the Bloc. What's your prediction?

I'll be lazy and predict that things stay exactly as they are.

	11-04-2005 07:44									#125
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Jimmy, what don't you understand: as it stands there are only 4 official parties.. People have to vote for one of them. It won't be the Bloc or the NDP in those areas, and until the conservatives can do something major it won't be them either. So people vote for the Liberals because they have no other choice.

In tumultuous times, people make unpredicted and unpredictable choices.

The best thing that could ever happen to the Tories social policy wise would be to pick up 3 or 4 MPs from Quebec.

Just as Alberta never stood a prayer of influencing Liberal policy with no MPs from here, so too Quebec needs to produce MPs to have a stronger voice in the CPC.

	11-04-2005 10:02									#126
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither In tumultuous times, people make unpredicted and unpredictable choices.

This is exactly what I'm saying. I agree with KH that the liberals will most likely win in a number of ridings which don't generally favor the Bloc (like those 21 which are now lib), but you never know given this environment. I'm just raising the question.

KH, I know you're from Quebec, but I practically live there now and its CRAZY here. Although I admit I can't speak for anywhere besides Ottawa/Gatinueau, but from what I hear its similar.

Edit: and by the way, I'm not exactly rooting for the CPC (although I'd love to see the libs go down in flames), so I'm not speaking with any bias for them... like (I presume) Ben Kenobi is.

Edit2:

quote: So people vote for the Liberals because they have no other choice.

I completely agree with your logic, and I would bet this happens. I just wouldn't bet the farm on it this time around (though maybe a small amount of money...).

	11-04-2005 10:08									#127
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If you think that the CPC is going to win seats in quebec then say so. Don't give me this "it doesn't matter as long as it's not the Liberals". That's disingenuous.

	11-04-2005 10:13									#128
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The CPC got 12% in my old riding

12% in a riding which went to Mulroney twice.

12% in the heart of anglo quebec

For God's sake, the bloc got 10% there.

12% is a bad joke. Until the CPC changes quebecers aren't going to vote for it. That's not wishful thinking; that's a fact.

	11-04-2005 10:17									#129
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse If you think that the CPC is going to win seats in quebec then say so. Don't give me this "it doesn't matter as long as it's not the Liberals". That's disingenuous.

They might pick up a few seats in Quebec, though any more than a couple would be far fetched. And even a couple is pushing it.

I'm not so sure that people won't vote NDP or Bloc though. What makes you convinced enough to rule them out right off the bat? And pre-Gomery polls, etc don't count... because its a completely different story now.

But I admit, you obviously would know more about Quebec politics than me. I'm just skeptical.

	11-04-2005 10:17									#130
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse The CPC got 12% in my old riding 12% in a riding which went to Mulroney twice. 12% in the heart of anglo quebec For God's sake, the bloc got 10% there. 12% is a bad joke. Until the CPC changes quebecers aren't going to vote for it. That's not wishful thinking; that's a fact.

This is pre-Gomery though. What makes you think it hasn't changed?

BTW, I'm not challenging you, I'm just asking.

	11-04-2005 10:24									#131
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quote: Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn I'm not so sure that people won't vote NDP or Bloc though. What makes you convinced enough to rule them out right off the bat? And pre-Gomery polls, etc don't count... because its a completely different story now.

NDP is not a quebec party

English people don't vote for the bloc

	11-04-2005 10:31									#132
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse NDP is not a quebec party English people don't vote for the bloc

What % of Anglos (about) comprise those 21 ridings?

But as far as the NDP, it would seem that people (Anglos or not) who can't support the Libs and are left-leaning (thought not separatist) might see the NDP as a good alternative? This whole thing is about alternatives, itsn't it? Or are these ridings mostly right-leaning?

	11-04-2005 10:35									#133
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OK, Kitty. I'll bet you $10 that the Tories take at least one seat in Quebec during the next federal election. I'd ask for odds, given history, but I think we are looking at one of those 'people are too pissed off to fall for Liberal slander one more time' situations.

If the Tories don't take one, I'll double down and bet $20 the Greens or NDP take at least one.

	11-04-2005 11:11									#134
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quote: so I'm not speaking with any bias for them... like (I presume) Ben Kenobi is.

Yeah, I'm a paid up member of the Conservative party, and have been so for several years.

	11-04-2005 11:53									#135
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... so at this time last year, I was in Calgary finishing off a 9 month theatre tour. Within three weeks of my return to Winnipeg, a federal election was called. As a regular contract employee of Elections Canada, I received a call and a very nice temporary full time contract.

I'm currently in Calgary. The show I'm in wraps next week. I'll be back in Winnipeg on the 20th of April and officially "at liberty". If anyone here has pull, could you arrange for the government to fall the first week of May? I wouldn't mind a couple of weeks off before my next Elections Canada contract...

	11-04-2005 12:23									#136
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Yeah, I'm a paid up member of the Conservative party, and have been so for several years.

You know what I meant...

	11-04-2005 13:04									#137
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quote: Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn What % of Anglos (about) comprise those 21 ridings?

Probably about 45% anglo 20% allo 35% franco. before you ask, allophones don't vote for the bloc either.

quote: But as far as the NDP, it would seem that people (Anglos or not) who can't support the Libs and are left-leaning (thought not separatist) might see the NDP as a good alternative? This whole thing is about alternatives, itsn't it? Or are these ridings mostly right-leaning?

they are more conservative than the NDP. much less conservative than the CPC. They are naturally in the centre of the liberal party, though can be persuaded to vote for moderate conservatives on rare occasions. They aren't going to go for a party that they feel is going to alienate French Quebec (this is in the back of their minds constantly). They are also not socially conservative. A lot of middle class neighbourhoods. Some urban stuff downtown (NDP could possibly get significant votes in one or two ridings there, but it would be difficult).

	11-04-2005 13:09									#138
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither OK, Kitty. I'll bet you $10 that the Tories take at least one seat in Quebec during the next federal election. I'd ask for odds, given history, but I think we are looking at one of those 'people are too pissed off to fall for Liberal slander one more time' situations. If the Tories don't take one, I'll double down and bet $20 the Greens or NDP take at least one.

Taking one or two might just barely be possible. I wouldn't guarantee that wouldn't happen by any stretch. Might get a good run in Westmount or something. Right now the Liberals don't really have anywhere to fall in Quebec, though. They've got 21 seats, but those are 21 of the most solid seats in the country. The Bloc took every reasonably contested seat last time around.

Quebec is not going to be the place where the CPC wins an election, if they do so.

	11-04-2005 13:20									#139
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The CPC is in even worse shape in Quebec than I thought. There are about 5 seats which went more than 15% Conservative last year, and all of them are Bloc strongholds.

	11-04-2005 13:22									#140
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This is the closest they get

http://www.elections.ca/content.asp...&textonly=false

	11-04-2005 13:24									#141
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Those 5 seem to be centred in the Quebec City region. The CPC is welcome to take those seats from the Bloc if they can.

	11-04-2005 16:56									#142
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Jimmy, what don't you understand: as it stands there are only 4 official parties.. People have to vote for one of them. It won't be the Bloc or the NDP in those areas, and until the conservatives can do something major it won't be them either.

That's just the thing: the Conservatives did not have to do anything major: the Liberals did it for them.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 to 5 Quebec seats go Conservative if an election is called. The Ottawa valley and even some Anglo seats in Montreal aren't out of reach IMO. Not because of PC policies but because of Liberal **** ups.
But whether or not that happens is beside the point. I think Ontario is going to give the Conservatives the seats they need for a minority government. The Bloc will go along for a while: Libs or Conservatives aren't much different as far as they're concerned. Whoever gives them more is going to get their vote, until there is a vote on same sex marriage (or some other issue of the same type).

	11-04-2005 19:11									#143
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I think you're overjudging the impact of the sponsorship inquiry on the minds of english quebec and understating their distaste for the CPC.

Two might just get done.

Five is way too high IMO.

As for Ontario: I don't know. I don't think so, but we'll see soon enough, at the speed things are going. The CPC has a hill of ~35 seats to climb. It's not impossible, but I think that's streatching the limits of what ridings people will vote for them in. I'd give the Liberals about 70% or so to take more seats than the CPC in the next election. This depends heavily, of course, on what else the inquiry comes up with.

	12-04-2005 01:07									#144
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Until the CPC changes quebecers aren't going to vote for it. That's not wishful thinking; that's a fact.

Based on today's polls, you and I are both going to have to eat crow.

You for the above statement (Conservatives are running ahead of Liberals now) and me for thinking there was nothing that could wake Canadians up.

I still have to ask why 1 in 4 Canadians still intend to vote for these crooks though. They must be the truly brain dead.

	12-04-2005 02:13									#145
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I think you're underestimating the ingrained stupidity that most Canadians seem to possess. By the time any election does come around this too will be forgotten and/or forgiven by the masses. Whether they simply don't care about the scandle or allow their gullibility to be exploited by the master Liberals, the results will be the same.

	12-04-2005 03:18									#146
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All I can say is

	12-04-2005 06:16									#147
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There's another factor to take into account. Apparently there are more than one or two Liberal MPs looking across the floor and wondering if the grass is greener in the opposition benches.

So far Kilgour from Edmonton and an unnamed three or four from Ontario have been mentioned.

Is it conceivable that one or two from Quebec might cross to the Tories if they could extract suitable assurances from Harper? If I were Stronach and McKay, I'd be working that angle big time.

Last edited by notyoueither on 12-04-2005 at 06:22

	12-04-2005 06:19									#148
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... otherwise it could get pretty lonely during a possible referendum in Quebec should Charest lose his government.

Was listening to a guy from Sun publishing on one of the morning radio talk shows. He did not paint a picture that many Canadians should look forward to.

A devastated Liberal party, the Tories with few or no prominent voices in Quebec, and then Charest loses to the PQ.

Who campaigns for non?

	12-04-2005 15:06									#149
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Interesting.

Based on the EKOS poll that just came out, here would be my take on the numbers we would get.

Seat Share

CPC 51.2
BQ 20.3
LIB 17.6
NDP 10.3
GRN 0.7

EKOS poll results

36.2 Conservative
25.0 Liberals
20.5 NDP
12.6 BQ
5.0 GRN

	12-04-2005 16:38									#150
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Yes, but that's before the Conservatives start campaigning. Once that happens, their support will plummet. The Conservatives always find ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.