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MOBIUS is offline MOBIUS
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Dec 1999
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 22:10 Visit MOBIUS's homepage!
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Will the US lose the war in Iraq by running out of soldiers? Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Six more soldiers dead today, as many US soldiers in Iraq as during the invasion two years ago, minority support for the war, plunging enlistment rates as potential recruits decide they don't want to be maimed or killed for a cause they no longer believe in...

Maybe all the insurgents have to do is hold out until the US runs out of soldiers?

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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Deaths and injuries to now are far lower than the turnover rate. Don't be silly.

Agathon is offline Agathon
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 22:25
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They've already lost.

BlackCat is offline BlackCat
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 22:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
They've already lost.


Yeah, but it'll take a bit of time before the last one has blown himself up.

MOBIUS is offline MOBIUS
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Deaths and injuries to now are far lower than the turnover rate. Don't be silly.


What about if the turnover is no longer replenished by recruitment?

Apparently recuiters haven't met their targets for the last four months straight and the situation is getting worse. Granted it will take a while for these effects to percolate through, but will this form of attrition be of a greater danger to the US army as a result of the dead and wounded stacking up in Iraq with total US casualties now having reached five figures?

MOBIUS is offline MOBIUS
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 22:52 Visit MOBIUS's homepage!
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The army only managed 57% of its recruitment targets in April

Of course it's only a Guardian article, so it's bound to be total bullshit...

CNN Story

Agathon is offline Agathon
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackCat

Yeah, but it'll take a bit of time before the last one has blown himself up.


Very funny.

The Americans have lost. How long will it take them to admit it this time, so we can start the gloating?

MOBIUS is offline MOBIUS
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Of course there's always the draft - I'd love to see some of the pro war posters on this forum shitting their pants on the streets of Iraq, putting their money where their sphincter is...

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 23:01
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uh, you guys are aware that the targets were raised cause the army is being INCREASED in size by 30,000? It was in the CNN article you linked to BTW. But i guess if you want to pretend thats attrition, go right ahead.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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quote:
Originally posted by MOBIUS
Of course there's always the draft - I'd love to see some of the pro war posters on this forum shitting their pants on the streets of Iraq, putting their money where their sphincter is...


right after 9/11 i checked the websites for the national guard - I missed the maximum age cutoff. Theyve since modified it a bit, but not enough.

MOBIUS is offline MOBIUS
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Private LotM reporting for duty.

Apparently not any more...

I'd say anything reducing the intended fighting effectiveness of an enemy could be construed as 'attrition'...

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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quote:
Originally posted by MOBIUS
Private LotM reporting for duty.

Apparently not any more...

I'd say anything reducing the intended fighting effectiveness of an enemy could be construed as 'attrition'...


an army thats growing, but not as fast as planned, is suffering from attrition? I suppose, technically, yes. Turn that around and apply it to AQ generally, or to the insurgency in Iraq. What were THEIR recruitment goals? Why thinking along these lines you could show the insurgency suffering from severe attrition, even as THEIR numbers grow. Congratulations man, you could work for Dick Cheney.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 23:17
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MOBIUS is offline MOBIUS
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


an army thats growing, but not as fast as planned, is suffering from attrition? I suppose, technically, yes. Turn that around and apply it to AQ generally, or to the insurgency in Iraq. What were THEIR recruitment goals? Why thinking along these lines you could show the insurgency suffering from severe attrition, even as THEIR numbers grow. Congratulations man, you could work for Dick Cheney.




Without being in AQHQ and knowing their plans, I'd reckon the US invading Iraq has acted as a clarion call to the ranks of AQ far surpassing their wildest dreams.

quote:
But the US top Gulf commander General John Abizaid told the same Senate committee more foreign fighters were coming into Iraq than six months ago. BBC


So whereas AQ recruitment appears to have been bolstered by the war in Iraq, US recruitment has been supressed for the very same reason - making you **** out of luck, as usual...

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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quote:
Originally posted by MOBIUS




Without being in AQHQ and knowing their plans, I'd reckon the US invading Iraq has acted as a clarion call to the ranks of AQ far surpassing their wildest dreams.


So whereas AQ recruitment appears to have been bolstered by the war in Iraq, US recruitment has been supressed for the very same reason - making you **** out of luck, as usual...


you dont know from that statement if they were recruited BECAUSE of the war, or if they would have been recruited anyway, and were sent to Iraq. Apparently BBC interviewed somebody from Janes who said that the number of Islamic extremists in Europe is being diminished by the number going to Iraq. I dont think they put that on the website, though.

and again, US recruitment missing targets is not the same as recruitment declining. Not when the targets have gone up.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 23:39
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And, BTW, the one recruitment that has gone steadily up, is that of Iraqis recruited to the new Iraqi forces.

Sandman is offline Sandman
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Aug 2001
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 23:39
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Why gloat?

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 23:43
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
Why gloat?

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.


the former regime element insurgents are unlikely to go anywhere other than Iraq.

So its the foreign jihadis you must be referring too. Given their inclination to suicidal tactics, i wonder how many of them are going to survive to fight elsewhere. And of course learning goes both ways.

Sandman is offline Sandman
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  Old Post 24-06-2005 23:58
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Suicide units make up an insignificant portion of the insurgent force, LOTM.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 00:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
Suicide units make up an insignificant portion of the insurgent force, LOTM.


of the total insurgent force I agree. But of the foreign jihadis specifically? And even when engaging in conventional operations, their approach is different.

remember the US op in Fallujah in December??? Folks were saying the insurgency is mainly Iraqis, hardly any foreigners. US pointed to all the bodies of guys identified as foreigners, relatively few who appeared to be Iraqis. What I heard then was that the Iraqis fought, then ran when it made sense too, while the foreigners, who had come to Iraq for martyrdom, were the ones who fought to the death.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 00:25
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That's because EVERYONE knew there was going to be a show down in Fallujah so the locals all left ahead of time. The foreigners, however, all ran into the city.

Ultraviolet is offline Ultraviolet
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Jun 2005
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 00:30
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.


I think Muslim is the key word here...

No offense to Muslims, but is there a predominately Muslim country that doesn't hate the US?

Unlike other countries that simply sit on their little butts and laugh at the US, these Muslim nations are a bit more proactive...not to make a big deal out of it, but 9/11 is an example...

I'm sorry, but Muslim nations appear to be the biggest threat to the US, and it has come to my understanding that you eliminate threats before they become too strong and overrun you...

I don't like war, but I'd rather have American marines dying in Iraq than American citizens dying in New York City...

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 00:33
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The problem with that theory is that in reality people in New York are now more likely to dye now then before we invaded Iraq.

BTW to the DL

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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quote:
Originally posted by Oerdin
That's because EVERYONE knew there was going to be a show down in Fallujah so the locals all left ahead of time. The foreigners, however, all ran into the city.


the Iraqi insurgents left - and lived to fight another day.

The foreign fighters ran INTO the city - and became shaheed, right?

Thats my point.

Sandman is offline Sandman
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 00:46
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They took substantial losses (probably more than Iraq) fighting in Afghanistan against the Russians. Didn't really stop them, did it?

SlowwHand is offline SlowwHand
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 00:53 Visit SlowwHand's homepage!
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Re: Will the US lose the war in Iraq by running out of soldiers? Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote:
Originally posted by MOBIUS
Six more soldiers dead today, as many US soldiers in Iraq as during the invasion two years ago, minority support for the war, plunging enlistment rates as potential recruits decide they don't want to be maimed or killed for a cause they no longer believe in...

Maybe all the insurgents have to do is hold out until the US runs out of soldiers?



Yeah. Highly likely scenario. About as likely as you deciding to give back.
I find it interesting that military members committment remains high, as I also note that both Bush and Blair won reelection.
Who's really out of step with reality in this?

Back at the ranch, Hussein cultivates his love of Cheetos and Dorito chips, all the while insisting he's still president of Iraq.
Do y'all read the same comic books? Play the same fantasy RPG's?
I bet you do.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
They took substantial losses (probably more than Iraq) fighting in Afghanistan against the Russians. Didn't really stop them, did it?


most of the lossed in Afghanistan, IIUC, were locals, not foreign mujahadeen.

But plenty of them did martyr themselves, Im sure. And no it didnt stop them, they kept right on recruiting - as Im sure AQ will continue to do after Iraq, win or lose. I wasnt saying that Iraq will kill AQ.

But how many of the fighters in Iraq are veterans of Afghanistan? Applying their combat expertise from Afghanistan? I was merely challenging the assertion that this will make future interventions in muslim countries more difficult. Not that Im eager for lots of those right now anyway.

BlackCat is offline BlackCat
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Jul 2004
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 00:56
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
They took substantial losses (probably more than Iraq) fighting in Afghanistan against the Russians. Didn't really stop them, did it?


Big difference- most Afghanis was against the russian invasion where most Iraquis are supporting the liberation forces (ok, they also want us to leave but not before it's safe .

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 01:14
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quote:

Iraq creating new breed of jihadists, says CIA

Ewen MacAskill, Duncan Campbell and Richard Norton-Taylor
Thursday June 23, 2005
The Guardian

The war in Iraq is creating a new breed of Islamic jihadists who could go on to destabilise other countries, according to a CIA report.

The CIA believes Iraq to be potentially worse than Afghanistan, which produced thousands of jihadists in the 1980s and 1990s. Many of the recruits to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida had fought in Afghanistan.

The sobering caution came as a senior British anti-terrorism source warned that those trained in terror techniques in Iraq could use their newly-acquired skills in Britain at the end of the war.

The CIA report, completed last month, remains classified. But a CIA source yesterday confirmed that its broad conclusions, disclosed by the New York Times yesterday, were accurate.

The concern expressed in the CIA report contrasts with the optimism of US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld two years ago when he welcomed the prospect of Iraq as a magnet for jihadists.

The Foreign Office and British security services are sceptical about the CIA assessment that the insurgency could spill into other countries. Security sources said that there was only a "trickle" of recruits from Britain joining the insurgency in Iraq.

If there was to be a spill-over, Saudi Arabia is potentially vulnerable because many of the Arab fighters in Iraq originate from there. Jamal Khashoggi, media adviser to the Saudi ambassador in London, said yesterday he agreed in part with the US assessment.

"It will be worse than Afghanistan," he said. "We are talking about a very brutal type, a very weird version of Islam in Iraq. It is very scary."

Mr Khashoggi predicted the approach of the Saudi government towards jihadists returning from Iraq will be very different from those returning from Afghanistan and Chechnya. "Any al-Qaida coming back from Iraq will be hunted. It is not like they have gone to Chechnya and will be coming back as heroes. If they come back from Iraq and brag about it, they will be snatched by security in a day or two."

The CIA report suggests the new breed of jihadists will be more deadly than those who fought in Afghanistan. It said that they have learned skills in urban warfare in Iraq.

While the number of Iraq attacks have diminished, they have become more deadly. More than 1,000 Iraqis and 120 US soldiers have been killed since the new Iraqi cabinet was formed in April.

Insurgents once again demonstrated their capacity for inflicting carnage on civilians when they detonated four cars bombs in western Baghdad last night, killing at least 23 people and injuring around 50. At least one was driven by a suicide bomber.

Earlier a bomb attack on a US military patrol killed three civilians. It was claimed by the al-Qaida group led by Abu Musab al Zarqawi.

There are about 200 individuals in Britain who are suspected of having received training in camps in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Senior anti-terrorist officials suggest many fewer have gone to Iraq.

Ken Jones, the chairman of the Association of Chief Police Officers' terrorism committee and chief constable of Sussex, said yesterday Britain would remain a prime target.

"There is an inevitable targeting of the United Kingdom and UK interests abroad," Mr Jones told a conference on terrorism organised by the Royal United Services Institute in London. "The threat will endure for the foreseeable future." But he added: "it is not inevitable that they will succeed."

Mr Jones noted that those involved in terrorism no longer necessarily came from the "excluded and marginalised" but were increasingly "highly intelligent, educated young people". In past terrorist campaigns, he said, there had been a clear goal or aim. The new form of attacks required a different response.

One of the most important ways to combat the growth of terrorism, he suggested, was by encouraging "confident communities" - a clear reference to Britain's Muslims -that would be aware of suspicious activities and would feel confident in reporting them.

Police in Manchester were last night given another 48 hours to question a 40-year-old man of north African origin, who was arrested under the Terrorism Act on Tuesday. It is believed that the man had shared a house in Moss Side with Idris Bazis, 41, a French-Algerian with a French passport, who blew himself up in a suicide attack in Iraq in February. Anti-terrorist sources say there is no link between the Manchester arrest and recent arrests of 11 men in Spain suspected of being connected with the Iraq insurgency.

Parents of 17 British soldiers killed in Iraq called today in a letter to The Guardian for an independent inquiry into the decision to go to war in Iraq.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Stor...1512597,00.html

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  Old Post 25-06-2005 01:14
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quote:
But how many of the fighters in Iraq are veterans of Afghanistan? Applying their combat expertise from Afghanistan? I was merely challenging the assertion that this will make future interventions in muslim countries more difficult.


You're challenging my assertion with an assertion of your own; namely that foreign fighters (and Iraqis who might be willing to travel) suffer such a high casualty rate that they won't be able to pass on their experience to anyone.

 
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