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lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 01:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman


You're challenging my assertion with an assertion of your own; namely that foreign fighters (and Iraqis who might be willing to travel) suffer such a high casualty rate that they won't be able to pass on their experience to anyone.


"the former regime element insurgents are unlikely to go anywhere other than Iraq.

So its the foreign jihadis you must be referring too. Given their inclination to suicidal tactics, i wonder how many of them are going to survive to fight elsewhere"


i made no assertion. I said "I wonder how many" thats raising a question, not making an assertion.


Oerdins post is interesting. I wonder what the CIA number for the number of Jihadis in Iraq at any one time is? They assert that Iraq will be worse than Afghanistan, which produced thousands. So that means thousands from Iraq. But we've been told several times that of the 20,000 or so insurgents in Iraq only 1000 or so are foreigners? Are the rest Iraqis who are willing to travel? IIUC very few Afghans ever traveled to engage in jihad outside afghanistan - I suppose Iraq could be different, but id like to know why and how - common arab culture maybe?

After the events of the last 4 years, from 9/11 to WMD to many other things, I dont accept the word of the CIA just cause its the CIA.

Interesting they mention Saudi. Just this week one of the most wanted Saudi AQ leaders was killed in Iraq. I hadnt posted on that, as I thought by itself it wasnt that important, but it is interesting in this context.

MichaeltheGreat is offline MichaeltheGreat
Apolyton Grand Executioner
mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 01:32
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quote:
Originally posted by MOBIUS


What about if the turnover is no longer replenished by recruitment?

Apparently recuiters haven't met their targets for the last four months straight and the situation is getting worse. Granted it will take a while for these effects to percolate through, but will this form of attrition be of a greater danger to the US army as a result of the dead and wounded stacking up in Iraq with total US casualties now having reached five figures?


Simple solution - change from this "Army of One" marketing bullshit and improve the enlistment incentives, retention incentives, pay, etc.

The current falloff in enlistment rates isn't enough to affect our warfighing capability in Iraq for a couple of decades, at least, so sorry to burst your wet dream.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
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Sep 2001
time: 21:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 02:06
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Hell, if they pay me enough even I might agree to a second tour. I'd want lots of yankee greenbacks though.

Last edited by Oerdin on 25-06-2005 at 02:22

Admiral is offline Admiral
Warlord
of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 02:15
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In the Senate Armed Forces Committee hearing yesterday, it was mentioned that the US is losing about a battalion a month. Not in terms of deaths, but casualties in general, which appear to be 18000. Now, while many of the injured will end up returning to duty, is this really an attrition rate we can afford? Especially given that there are not that many areas that we can shift troops out of elsewhere in the world without destabilizing the region (DPRK, for instance).

Given the lack of apparent/achievable military objectives in Iraq, it is unclear to me at what point we can say "we win," and leave. And as time stretches on toward whenever that point may come, we will continue to lose troops, and at a certain point, we may not be able to replace them all.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 02:21
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quote:
Originally posted by Admiral

Given the lack of apparent/achievable military objectives in Iraq, it is unclear to me at what point we can say "we win," and leave.


when the Iraqi forces are able to contain and diminish the insurgency themselves. When the upward line of iraqi force capacity crosses the downward line of insurgent effectiveness.


The whole "its a quagmire" vs "weve got it won" debate nonsense comes down to the fact that while the Iraqi forces line IS going up, the insurgent effectiveness line is not (yet) going down. So its easy to argue either way. And of course the iraqi force capacity is still not where one might have hoped it would be by now.

Admiral is offline Admiral
Warlord
of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 02:40
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


when the Iraqi forces are able to contain and diminish the insurgency themselves. When the upward line of iraqi force capacity crosses the downward line of insurgent effectiveness.


The whole "its a quagmire" vs "weve got it won" debate nonsense comes down to the fact that while the Iraqi forces line IS going up, the insurgent effectiveness line is not (yet) going down. So its easy to argue either way. And of course the iraqi force capacity is still not where one might have hoped it would be by now.


I'll agree that the success or failure of the iraq war lies with the iraqi army. I'm just afraid that your "when" could quite possibly be an "if." I'm afraid that the various signs of sectarian dispute will intensify, and that the government could end up not being very effective. I fear that governmental effectiveness is also hampered by gross mismanagement on the corporate side of the US reconstruction. That is an area that I think we do not hear enough about, and I think is an area where we could actually have a real influence on the war.

Dr Strangelove is offline Dr Strangelove
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USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 03:42
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I'm worried that we may run out of Iraqi civilians.

BlackCat is offline BlackCat
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Jul 2004
time: 05:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 03:47
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quote:
Originally posted by Dr Strangelove
I'm worried that we may run out of Iraqi civilians.


That is not a risk - even Saddam couldn't get rid of those civilians despite his murder rate was higher than the current from the insurgents.

Geronimo is offline Geronimo
King
st cloud USA
Jan 1970
time: 05:36
Question  Old Post 25-06-2005 06:49
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon


Very funny.

The Americans have lost. How long will it take them to admit it this time, so we can start the gloating?


will you claim as you do for vietnam that they got their asses kicked? Or will you opt for a more accurate description of their defeat?

Gatekeeper is offline Gatekeeper
King
United States of America
Feb 2000
time: 23:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 07:02 Visit Gatekeeper's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
Why gloat?

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.


They got that in Afghanistan, circa 1979 or so when the Soviet Union invaded. It's been passed down ever since.

Gatekeeper

Agathon is offline Agathon
Prince
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 07:09
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quote:
Originally posted by Geronimo


will you claim as you do for vietnam that they got their asses kicked? Or will you opt for a more accurate description of their defeat?


You mean, that they had their gluteus maximi forcefully touched by Indo-Chinese tootsies?


You guys suck at war. Everyone that fights with you calls you a packed of spoiled cowards who shoot at anything who moves.

Urban Ranger is offline Urban Ranger
Apolyton Duke of Off-Topic

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The City State of Noosphere, CPA special envoy
May 1999
time: 13:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 07:22
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
Simple solution - change from this "Army of One" marketing bullshit and improve the enlistment incentives, retention incentives, pay, etc.


People just don't want to get blown up in faraway lands without a good reason.

quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
The current falloff in enlistment rates isn't enough to affect our warfighing capability in Iraq for a couple of decades, at least, so sorry to burst your wet dream.


Is it true that many wounded soldiers who should be resting in hospitals are put back to the front line again?

Gatekeeper is offline Gatekeeper
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United States of America
Feb 2000
time: 23:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 07:29 Visit Gatekeeper's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
You guys suck at war. Everyone that fights with you calls you a packed of spoiled cowards who shoot at anything who moves.


You, OTOH, excel at stereotyping and generalizations.

Agathon is offline Agathon
Prince
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Dec 2002
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 07:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Gatekeeper


You, OTOH, excel at stereotyping and generalizations.


C'mon. You guys once got beat by Canada. Oh the shame....

Gatekeeper is offline Gatekeeper
King
United States of America
Feb 2000
time: 23:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 07:59 Visit Gatekeeper's homepage!
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'Tis true Washington, D.C., was sacked by British forces, but I guess that's to be expected — retribution — when we did something along those lines to Montreal, Canada (I think that's the right city anyway).

Since then, I think our armed forces have done reasonably well against Mexico, Spain, in World War I, in World War II, during the Cold War, in Korea and during the first Gulf War. Not so good in Vietnam, and the books are still open on Gulf War II.

Gatekeeper

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
King
Macedonia
May 2001
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 08:11 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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The "city" you burned was York (now Toronto; then it was barely a frontier outpost, and in burning it down the American forces managed to kill dozens of their own troops when the powder magazine exploded).

You never reached Montreal in that war. A force of 10000 men sent to capture it was turned back by 300 French Canadians in the woods south of Montreal.

Bosh is offline Bosh
Emperor
Taehan Mingook
Jan 1970
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 08:26
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quote:
Especially given that there are not that many areas that we can shift troops out of elsewhere in the world without destabilizing the region (DPRK, for instance).

They've already sent a lot of the GIs in Korea to Iraq...

Admiral is offline Admiral
Warlord
of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 09:05
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quote:
Originally posted by Bosh

They've already sent a lot of the GIs in Korea to Iraq...


And since then, DPRK has announced a revived nuclear weapons program. Probably not completely linked, but can we be sure?

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 11:10
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
Why gloat?

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.


Too bad the Soviets educated them, long, long ago.

The reasons to blame everything on Bush are really getting weak.

Gatekeeper is offline Gatekeeper
King
United States of America
Feb 2000
time: 23:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 11:30 Visit Gatekeeper's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
The "city" you burned was York (now Toronto; then it was barely a frontier outpost, and in burning it down the American forces managed to kill dozens of their own troops when the powder magazine exploded).

You never reached Montreal in that war. A force of 10000 men sent to capture it was turned back by 300 French Canadians in the woods south of Montreal.


My apologies for not having my encyclopedia in front of me when I typed that post. I like to get away from it once in a while, since it's constantly at my side when I'm at work.

Gatekeeper

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 11:33
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What sort of excuse is this?

Forgive me for talking out of my ass, for my ass needed talking out of?

Gatekeeper is offline Gatekeeper
King
United States of America
Feb 2000
time: 23:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 11:40 Visit Gatekeeper's homepage!
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Huh? I'm in no mood to be serious right now, that's what the smilie was for.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 11:45
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Why not just admit you were wrong and call it a day?

Gatekeeper is offline Gatekeeper
King
United States of America
Feb 2000
time: 23:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 12:03 Visit Gatekeeper's homepage!
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That's basically what I did when I said I didn't have my encyclopedia — i.e. resources — with me at the time I posted.

Gatekeeper

techumseh is offline techumseh
King
of the frozen North.
Apr 1999
time: 22:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 12:03 Visit techumseh's homepage!
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York was more than a frontier outpost, it was a reasonable sized town and the capital of Upper Canada (Ontario). The Americans burned the government buildings, including the Legislature, which is why the British returned the favour and burned Washington the next year. This is an event in American history which is little taught in schools and almost never mentioned in polite society. It is particularly overlooked by American media for some reason. Conversely, it is well known in Canada.

Gatekeeper is offline Gatekeeper
King
United States of America
Feb 2000
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 12:11 Visit Gatekeeper's homepage!
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Which brings me back to my original point, which was a response to Agathon saying America got beat by Canada in the war of 1812: " 'Tis true Washington, D.C., was sacked by British forces, but I guess that's to be expected — retribution — when we did something along those lines to Montreal, Canada (I think that's the right city anyway ... [it's actually York])."

Pray tell, where in there did I insult Canada? I'm basically saying we got our just desserts after what we did to York, albeit I had the incorrect city name.

Gatekeeper

techumseh is offline techumseh
King
of the frozen North.
Apr 1999
time: 22:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 12:24 Visit techumseh's homepage!
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Well you did insult us. And for you punishment you must listen to this song which will educate you on our joint history.


http://www.ampcast.com/LST-72054-mu...War_of_1812.m3u

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
King
Macedonia
May 2001
time: 00:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 13:10 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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Is that a 3 dead trolls link?

techumseh is offline techumseh
King
of the frozen North.
Apr 1999
time: 22:36
  Old Post 25-06-2005 13:16 Visit techumseh's homepage!
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Yup. One of my favorites. I've seen (and been a victim in) a couple of their improv shows. Next time, I'll remember - Don't make eye contact!

Mordoch is offline Mordoch
Chieftain
Denver, Colorado
Jan 2002
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  Old Post 25-06-2005 17:44 Visit Mordoch's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Admiral
In the Senate Armed Forces Committee hearing yesterday, it was mentioned that the US is losing about a battalion a month. Not in terms of deaths, but casualties in general, which appear to be 18000. Now, while many of the injured will end up returning to duty, is this really an attrition rate we can afford? Especially given that there are not that many areas that we can shift troops out of elsewhere in the world without destabilizing the region (DPRK, for instance).

Given the lack of apparent/achievable military objectives in Iraq, it is unclear to me at what point we can say "we win," and leave. And as time stretches on toward whenever that point may come, we will continue to lose troops, and at a certain point, we may not be able to replace them all.

Actually you just gave a fairly poor example in my view. While there is the question of whether Kim Jung Ill is crazy enough to think he can win, South Korea is definately capable of dealing with a North Korean invasion on its own. When you look at tanks for instance, North Korea most advanced tank is the T-62, a tank that originally came out in 1961. Most of their tanks are still T-55 varients, which are 1950s technology, and they even have T-34s still in service! By contrast, South Korea has an increasingly large number of rather modern and extremely capable K1 and K1-A1 tanks. South Korea even has some T-80 tanks that if got from Russia in return for forgiving Russia some of the money it owed South Korea. The air force and navies of the two countries come out even more lopsided in South Korea's favor. North Korea does have a fairly large Air Force size wise, but most of it consists of Mig-17s, Mig-19s, and Mig-21s.

Last edited by Mordoch on 25-06-2005 at 18:33

 
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