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Zopperoni
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Valverde's battling illness right now, so I'm not counting on him. I'm thinking Rasmussen might attempt to snatch the yellow jersey from Lance, if only for one day. Bruyneel won't be bothered about chasing Rasmussen with the time trial still to come. Losing Beltran doesn't make things easier either.
Ullrich has no chance because he's totally incapable of attacking. Moreau can't follow well enough. Both, however, will consolidate due to their "contre la montre"-competences.
Vinokourov needs to have good legs throughout the Pyrennees. If he wants to be contention for a podium spot, he cannot collapse like in the stage to Courchevel.
At the end of the day, Basso has the best position. He's been OK in the climbs, and decent in the time trials.
Botero and Mancebo could be guys going into the top five as well. Finally, Cadell Evans has made a positive impression on me.
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:37
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On who will win, it looks like it should be Armstrong again. While his team hasn't always looked dominant, they have done a good job pushing the pace in the mountain stages and Armstrong himself has never looked weak.
Today was another bunch finish but the next 3 stages are mountains again. Tomorrow is a long flat ( well some cat 4 hills) leading to a HC peak about 30 kms from the finish and a finish up a cat one climb. Probably see a long escape from non-contenders getting reeled in up the mountains with over 8% gradients. The thing that might restrain the attacks is the fact they have an even harder stage the next day.
I think Sundays stage #15 is the big one. With a rest day following, everyone can put the hammer down over 4 category 1 mountains and a HC finish. Like the day before, the last two mountains have gradient in excess of 8%. If someone that matters does not take the yellow away from Armstrong by this stage, IMHO its over. So far I have seen no sign that anyone is in a position to do this.
Stage 16 has enough mountains to matter but after a rest day, and with a long downhill and flat to finish, its unlikely that anyone that mattered could hold off the discovery team and gain major advantages. The remaining stages are all flat enough that I don't think the Discovery team will let anyone that matters get away.
Bottom line . . . Armstrong looks like he will win since there is no one that looks able to beat him. But maybe someone is stronger than they have shown so far. If so , they better show that over the next two stages !! personally I only think a mishap or injury can prevent another Armstrong yellow in Paris
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:37
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Zoidberg
I was curious as to your selection of riders for the poll. I'm not saying your selections were wrong but I am curious as to your logic to include say Vino and exclude say Botero, Leipheimer, Mancebo, landis and Kloden, all of whom lead Vino (albeit by less than a minute) in the GC. I know Kloden tends to get overlooked and there was some early rumblings that he was off-form .
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Winston
No, not if one apllies some common sense and takes a non-emotional look at what professional cycling has become.
What a charade. |
I apply nothing but logic and sense to this. Armstrong is tested on season and off, randomly with blood and urine. I say randomly but its probably more accurate to say constantly.
So there are two choices here. Either he is clean OR he is so much better at doping that his stuff can never ever be detected even if he is tested the day he is doping. I don't find it likely that anyone is that good at doping so I choose to believe he is clean.
I give the same assumption to any athlete that is tested regularly even in sports where doping is common. As someone said . . . assumption of innocence and all that
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
bottom line is that anything over 8% grade is where armstrong is enourmously better than his oipponents
which is why this tour has flattened many mountain stages and shortened the HC climbs. |
But with at least FOUR climbs of 8% or greater it would appear that you believe Armstrong should increase his lead
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All times are GMT. The time now is 05:37.
Apolyton Time is 00:37. |
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15-07-2005 19:07
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