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Caligastia
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quote:
Originally posted by finbar
Results of interest to the thread:
Auckland 40 -d- Waikato 28
Just too good on the day. Though we certainly saw the best and worst of Carlos Spencer. Gee, when he takes a bad option he takes a really bad option. 
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Yeah, thats always been the problem with Carlos. He just isnt consistent. That kick back from the tryline was a shocker wasnt it?
So I presume you watched the whole game. What did you think? Regan King seems to have a lot of potential.
I was a bit suprised that Waikato were so dominated, they had great form all season and made it to the top of the table.
quote:
Originally posted by finbar
I suppose the next match for our betting consideration will be the Wallabies -v- Pumas next Saturday. Anyone care to suggest some margins? |
I would give the Pumas a 20 1/2 point start. What d'ya reckon?
quote:
Originally posted by finbar
Hmm... Carlos Spencer certainly won't. |
Looks like you guessed wrong on that one. He did make a couple of shocking decisions in the NPC final, but overall he has had a great season.
quote:
Originally posted by Tamerlin
Thanks to the Blues I can breathe a little, my Golds are feeling less alone now even if my purse is far from being full. |
Actually the Blues are Auckland's Super 12 team, this was Auckland's NPC (National Provincial Championship) team.
quote:
Originally posted by redbull
Lomu in the ABs for the Euro tour! Whatever next! Surely John Mitchell hasn't gone insane |
Mitchell says Lomu was the only one who was not selected on form. I think this is a mistake. All players should be selected on form.
quote:
Originally posted by redbull
Deon Muir, Waikato No. 8, is off to Japan. IMHO, if he had been staying, he'd have made the squad. |
I actually would have preferred him as captain over Taine Randell.
quote:
Originally posted by Havak
Something similar may happen is the unthinkable happens and an SH side beats us in RWC – as thoroughly unliklely as that has to be. |
Oh yes, incredibly unlikely.
But perhaps lightning will strike for the 5th time in a row.
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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It's mainly designed for games where one team is a pronounced favourite - in other words, where a win/lose bet becomes meaningless.
Whichever team we decide - by consensus - is the favourite is given a "points handicap" which amounts to the margin we think they should win by. Take this week's Wallabies -v- Pumas match, for example. I think the Wallabies should win by 11 1/2 points. (Tamerlin suggested 15 1/2, Caligastia suggested 20 1/2)
If, for the sake of this explanation, the margin was set at 11 1/2, that becomes the Wallabies' "points handicap". If I were to back the Wallabies to win, they would have to win by 12 points or more for me to collect. (The half point in the "points handicap" is there to avoid teams winning by the exact "points handicap" meaning, technically, it should be money back)
Conversely, in this example, if the agreed "points handicap" for the Wallabies were to be 11 1/2, that translates as an 11 1/2 points "start" for the Pumas. Which means you can back the Pumas to lose by fewer than 11 points. If they lose by, say, 9 points, you win the bet. But if they lose by more than 11 1/2 points, you lose your bet. (If they draw the match - or win outright - you also win the bet)
Even though it really is designed for games where there's a pronounced favourite, we use it for all matches because it adds a bit of spice to the betting situation.
Any of the above make sense?
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LDiCesare
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La Ferté sous Jouarre France
Jan 2001
time: 05:23
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quote:
(The half point in the "points handicap" is there to avoid teams winning by the exact "points handicap" meaning, technically, it should be money back) |
Ah, finbar, we all know that is a lie. It is just a badly disguised attempt to make us think you are good at math.
I think a 11 1/2 margin looks better than 15 or 20, though I would have suggested 12 1/2? I don't know how the pumas fare today, in particular there were some rumours on who would play fly half and such.
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Havak
Only the two. Can’t have any old riff raff just walking into one’s grounds you know. |
I'm now trying to picture a back garden enclosed on only two sides.
quote:
I must do. Give me some time and I’ll maybe think of something. |
Put Mrs Havak on the line, let her tell us.
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And there was me having you pegged as a progressive! |
Only socially and politically.
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No thanks. I may not bet on them – even this untested Wallabies line up should be too good for them I think. I will be cheering for them to push you however. |
So what's your estimate of a margin?
quote:
Generally, unlike with S*****, the BBC audio commentaries are very good. After all you clearly picked up how stupid that attack on the Wasps stand off was? |
The BBC calls seem intelligent and articulate. A bit like our ABC here, whose sports callers always lead the way.
quote:
*cough* When did the Aussies last turn us over? *cough* |
Yes, you won the last two - one of them dubious in the extreme. Two Tests in so many years leads to rather misleading impressions, methinks.
quote:
Okay, so how about two losses in our last twenty one tests? One to France who played superbly that day in Paris – and one to Ireland who achieved the same in Dublin – and as I say can easily do the same to you if their heads are right on the day. |
You're counting wins against Wales, Scotland and Italy - presumably at least 2, possibly 3 each of them - in your total?
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Havak
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Swing Low, Sweet Chariots.
Aug 1999
time: 05:23
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quote:
I'm now trying to picture a back garden enclosed on only two sides. |
The missing two sides being accounted for by the house and then a fence and five bar gate. Which probably does not help the picture much?
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Put Mrs Havak on the line, let her tell us. |
Don’t you think its bad enough I keep setting myself up for ridicule here without letting an expert in that field join in?
You might gather, from the fact I keep getting away on tour, that the better half does not particularly buy into the beautiful game. Though thankfully she understands my addiction to it.
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Only socially and politically. |
Covers the important bases there really.
quote:
So what's your estimate of a margin? |
New Wallaby line up, fired up Pumas. Hmm – give the Pumas 7-10 head start?
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The BBC calls seem intelligent and articulate. A bit like our ABC here, whose sports callers always lead the way. |
I’ve always assumed ABC was the equivalent of Aunty. And yes their ‘callers’ (we use the expressions commentators and summarisers mainly) tend to be as you describe.
Now ITV had the rights to the last world cup and that was almost entirely the reverse experience. One of their commentators got done for a racist comment during the England-Tonga game!
quote:
Yes, you won the last two - one of them dubious in the extreme. Two Tests in so many years leads to rather misleading impressions, methinks. |
Well as you know I am playing the game to add spice to next month for us.
But you have to let this go – Lugers try was no more dodgy than the interference running in the lead up to your second try in the same game. We have to accept the officials call in the final analysis. And their call was you lost that one. To be fair Balshaws chip was so audacious for an Englishman that it probably deserved the score just on that basis alone.
As for last years game you were comprehensively beaten even if the cutting edge lacked, and I’ll be looking for a much better showing from your forwards this time out.
I’m no idiot however. I know no Wallaby side is easy to beat, and if we do so next month we will have earned it. But even if we are not better than you – we are definitely not worse these days. You cannot take us for granted like used to be the case.
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You're counting wins against Wales, Scotland and Italy - presumably at least 2, possibly 3 each of them - in your total |
Yup two against each in that run. Including Wales in Wales – which is still an achievement for England I can assure you. That fixture remains their summit of rugby passion – and is one of the few you can be sure they will commit to 100%.
There is also three wins against the Boks in that run of course. And France’s win in 2002 was their first in four years. We even beat them the year they ambushed the ABs.
Rugby is a strange game – it can throw up some beautiful results. I wait with interest to see France ambush the Wallabies in the same way they did us in Paris in March. That French performance would have beaten anyone – don’t doubt that for a second.
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Havak
The missing two sides being accounted for by the house and then a fence and five bar gate. Which probably does not help the picture much? |
So we have three fences!
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Don’t you think its bad enough I keep setting myself up for ridicule here without letting an expert in that field join in? |
Variety is the spice, as they say. Mrs finbar has taken to walking past me at the computer and saying: "What are you up to?". To which I reply: "Talking rugby".
Remember "Fawlty Towers"? Remember Basil Fawlty's wonderful noise of disdain that sounded something like: "Chtch". That's what Mrs finbar has taken to uttering as she continues on her way.
quote:
You might gather, from the fact I keep getting away on tour, that the better half does not particularly buy into the beautiful game. Though thankfully she understands my addiction to it. |
Mrs finbar has her own addictions - various mindless computer games, gadgets for the kitchen, fitness regimes, etc - so she can't grizzle about mine. So I tell her.
quote:
New Wallaby line up, fired up Pumas. Hmm – give the Pumas 7-10 head start? |
I think 11-12, which isn't all that much different.
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You cannot take us for granted like used to be the case. |
So, if we win, we can take you for granted again?
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Yup two against each in that run. |
I must set up a Wallaby -v- Romania match immediately!
quote:
Rugby is a strange game – it can throw up some beautiful results. I wait with interest to see France ambush the Wallabies in the same way they did us in Paris in March. |
They did us in Paris!  It's a wonder I even talk to Tamerlin and LDiCesares!
Last edited by finbar on 30-10-2002 at 03:46
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Caligastia
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quote:
Originally posted by finbar
I watched all bar the last 10 minutes. There was some good talent on show. Obviously I knew little about either team, but it seemed to me Waikato only really looked dangerous counter-attacking. Auckland seemed to have the better structure. |
I agree, and its good to see that Mitchell has diversified his selection pool outside of Canterbury.
quote:
That's three converted tries. I think it's way too much. The Pumas can be very strong at home in front of their own crowd. They've beaten us there before - as Rod McQueen would remember from his very first match as Wallaby coach - and they have absolutely nothing to lose. Bear in mind, also, that 95% of the Wallaby squad haven't played since the Tri-Nations well over 2 months ago. Frankly, under all the circumstances, I think 11 1/2 would be reasonable (and probably still generous) - a try and a converted try. |
I think your margin is too low, but I can agree on a compromise in the form of Tamerlin's proposed margin. How does that sound?
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28-10-2002 16:32
They're now debating whether to send him home. What's to debate?
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