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HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 10-12-2002 13:44
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quote:
Originally posted by Adam Smith
I will grant that all measures have noise in them, though its always disturbing to realize how much noise. But my point was that the multifactor measure is more relevant (and lower) than attributing all productivity to labor.


Sure, but that's pretty theoretical if the numbers you have to work with are just wild guesses. The BLS error margin on payrolls is quite large, I don't want to know how big it is on hours, and BEA's GDP numbers have some fudge factor as well, mostly on the investment side it seems. So we might say MFP grew somewehre between 0 and 3 %. And then... uhm...

Adam Smith is offline Adam Smith
King
Maryland, USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 10-12-2002 20:52
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DanS:

I don't have a good read on Snow's style, since I only saw him in internal industry meetings where he was clearly the biggest fish in the pond. I don't think he has enough weight outside the transportation industry to play the heavy.

Roland (or should I call you H/O?):
quote:
The BLS error margin on payrolls is quite large, I don't want to know how big it is on hours, and BEA's GDP numbers have some fudge factor as well, mostly on the investment side it seems. So we might say MFP grew somewehre between 0 and 3 %. And then... uhm...
And that is why I pay very little attention to monthly numbers, little attention to quarterly numbers, and only some attention to annual numbers.

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 10-12-2002 20:59
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quote:
Originally posted by Adam Smith
And that is why I pay very little attention to monthly numbers, little attention to quarterly numbers, and only some attention to annual numbers.


You should run for fed boss.

As for Snow, his job is pretty irrelevant apart from 3 functions:

- sell the Boss's econ policy. That means sell tax cuts for upper brackets. He might be good at that.

- manage the dollar. Here his background should make him listen to US exporters, overall policy forbids him to scare the speculators though. Btwm the "strong dollar policy" is the funniest mass delusion since Hitler's Alpenfestung.

- engineer bailouts. O'Neill didn't want to play along as well as Rubin or Summers, guess that's what really broke his neck. Suppose Snow knows his duties.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 11-12-2002 23:52 Visit DanS's homepage!
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"You're just ducking the question aren't you?"

Well, not really. Or at least mostly not. I'm just hedging my bets because I don't have a clear sense of how Sony approaches it normally. Also, the explanation is perhaps too long for this thread (and it's only a 1/2 formed opinion anyway). But I'll give it a go.

I have a pretty good sense of how Philips does it. Philips appears to use a standard library of in-house functional blocks which are used in concert to create a single integrated circuit that does a specified task. The IC is then sent out to a fab house (demand is probably pooled among several different internal customers). Sometimes Philips creates its own DVD players, etc. with its own ICs--very rarely with others' ICs. Let's assume that Sony goes with this approach on the PS2, and the fab and assembly houses are its own.

Nintendo uses a somewhat similar approach with the Gamecube. Instead of using an in-house functional block library, it rents others' libraries. However, not all functional blocks are available for rent (for instance, I don't think nVidia would allow Nintendo to license its functional blocks). With these functional blocks it then creates three or four ICs to do all of the tasks needed for the entire machine. Send the plans to the fab house (contract) and then assembly (contract?).

Microsoft does business differently. A good portion of the task is completed by generic ICs (and other ICs that are normally used in a PC context), and an operating system that serves as an interface between the hardware and software on a more abstract level than the PS2 and the Gamecube. For instance, the XBox uses a Pentium III 733 MHz CPU--the same one that you buy off the shelf for your PC. A ~ GeForce 4 chipset. DDR memory sticks that you could buy off the shelf.

Microsoft uses none of its own parts. The only hardware it designs is the PCB. The operating system, programming tools, etc. are largely borrowed from Windows XP. All fab and assembly is contract. Microsoft can choose among several different vendors for all of the parts that it buys.

Which of the three approaches makes the most business sense to you?

[NB: There is a fourth, new, way to do it--the soft hardware approach. But none of the three use this approach.]

Last edited by DanS on 12-12-2002 at 00:09

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 12-12-2002 00:13 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Two interesting articles from FT...

A plea for Dollar Endaka
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...d=1039523372845

'03 Global growth estimates downwardly revised drastically
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...p=1012571727092

How long do y'all think we can sustain a strong dollar and a 5% of GDP current account deficit.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:23
  Old Post 12-12-2002 04:00
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Ouch!

Global growth estimated to be over 1% lower next year - that's like losing Australia or Holland!

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 12-12-2002 13:37
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Two interesting articles from FT...

A plea for Dollar Endaka
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...d=1039523372845



Does it surprise you that all I can say is "what a load of bullshit".

"The US enjoys sound economic policies"

As an aside, 19 % of GDP exports for the eurozone ? More like 13-15 % IIRC, but not sure whether that includes trade in services....

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 12-12-2002 20:26 Visit DanS's homepage!
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that's like losing Australia or Holland

Ah shoot. We didn't need them anyway!

Does it surprise you that all I can say is "what a load of bullshit".

Hershell: Well, at least it's interesting to hear an opposing opinion expressed once in a while.

I don't much care for the argument either. True, we could afford it probably. But that doesn't make it good policy. I'd just as soon let the currency markets do their thing.

Re the exports, it's probably not stripping out intra-Euro trade.

Last edited by DanS on 12-12-2002 at 20:31

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:23
  Old Post 12-12-2002 23:11
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Somethings going to have to give in order for the US economy to get back into equilibrium.

Currently the US is cutting investment not consumption - this has led to net investment dropping from 9.4% of net output in Q1 2000 to 5.8% in Q3 2002 (not much higher than the post-war lows of around 5% in 1991-92 and way below the 8%-12% range of 1950-85).

The massive rise in depreciation in recent years means that in order for US net investment to get back above 8% gross investment (including that done by government) has to be around 22% of GDP (it's currently 18.4%) a level that was only attained for a couple of quarters in 1979 during the last 50 years.

But even if the US could pull off this herculean task the effects on the current account deficit would be dire - you see even with the share of net investment at close to historic lows the US is still running a current account deficit of around 5%, if net investment rebounds with no cut in private consumption then the US's current account deficit will have to double to over a trillion dollars a year by 2006.

The best situation would be if government and consumers cut back on spending, if government consumption was cut from the current 15% of GDP to 13% and private consumption from 70% to 66% then the US could bring investment back up to acceptable levels and bring it's current account deficit back down to the levels of the mid 1990's (2% of GDP).

One wonders if this can be done however - it would require growth in government consumption of 0.5% for 5 years (around what was achieved during the deficit-cutting years of 1992-97, but remember that defence spending was cut by nearly 2% of GDP during that period) and growth in private consumption of under 2.5% (even slower than during the last two years of 'recession') - this is assuming that the whole economy grows by 3.5% a year.


I feel it is likely that the US will fail to invest enough to counter the much higher levels of depreciation now pertaining - with dire consequences for it's long-term growth prospects, unless there is a huge increase in capital productivity (to levels not seen since the 1930's & 40's) then if the US's net investment stays below 7% it is unlikely to achieve long-term growth in productivity above 2%.

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 13-12-2002 00:17
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As you mention it...

The funny thing I wonder about is whether the Fed's policy to enforce ultra-low interest rates can create a suboptimal equilibrium where consumption remains high, the foreign account deficit is cut, and net investment shrinks to a level that allows for only 1-2 % GDP growth.

Most economists would say no to this, but then, most were predicting 4-5 % GDP growth for Japan for the 1990s.....

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 13-12-2002 00:27 Visit DanS's homepage!
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"One wonders if this can be done however - it would require growth in government consumption of 0.5% for 5 years"

At the federal level, there is 0% chance that this will be done (DanS guesstimate ). At the state/local level, much of the growth in spending is constrained by rules keeping spending roughly in line with revenues. You would have to look at the various state/local revenue sources to figure this one out.

Sten Sture is offline Sten Sture
Emperor
SF, CA don't call it frisco... Striker!!
Mar 1999
time: 21:23
  Old Post 14-12-2002 00:33 Visit Sten Sture's homepage!
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US State and Local government expenditures are a little more than 2x the Federal totals by the way; that comes as a bit of a surprise to most folks.


US total mortgage debt is now about 74% of annual disposable income. That means we could pay it off in 9 months if we didn't need to eat or pay for premium TV. I was kinda surprised that it was that low. Mortgage debt service then could theoretically be around 5% of DPI.


Question for you guys:

68% of US domestic households own their home. Does anyone have figures on the levels for the Eurozone or the UK?

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 16-12-2002 13:38
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"US State and Local government expenditures are a little more than 2x the Federal totals by the way; that comes as a bit of a surprise to most folks."

Mostly because it isn't true...

The federal budget is about 20 % of GDP (including social security), the rest about 15 %. It is however true on the use side of GDP (government consumption and and investment) as a lot of federal spending is redistributing income.

"68% of US domestic households own their home. Does anyone have figures on the levels for the Eurozone or the UK?"

IIRC it's about 50-55 % for Germany and Austria.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 16-12-2002 20:10 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Here's a snapshot plot for Europe grabbed from a random PDF. I think home ownership rates can change quickly, as can unemployment (see Ireland).

The theory is that high home ownership rates leads to high unemployment due to lack of labor mobility.

Apologies if I'm messing up anybody's screen.

Attachment: home_ownership.gif
This has been downloaded 33 time(s).

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:23
  Old Post 17-12-2002 03:10
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Combining that data with a series I had for the number of households I get a 60% owner-occupier rate for the EU as a whole.

Sten Sture is offline Sten Sture
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SF, CA don't call it frisco... Striker!!
Mar 1999
time: 21:23
  Old Post 17-12-2002 04:01 Visit Sten Sture's homepage!
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Thanks!

Here is another little tidbit: US consumer holdings of Real Estate vs Equities

Real Estate: US$14.6T
Equities: US$5.5T

So when Roland's great American housing crash occurs, it will be significant!

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 17-12-2002 13:25
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The 42 % for Germany surprises me on the low side, but may be due to the large density centers.

As for "significant", that's a slight understatement. Housing has held up household balance sheets; when the air goes it won't look good.

Adam Smith is offline Adam Smith
King
Maryland, USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 17-12-2002 23:09
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Maybe not as bad as you think.

How many housing markets ahve bubble pricing? I figure there is about 20% air in the value of our house, but that does not bother me much at all. The air does not affect my mortgage payment or annual solvency, because we bought the house before the prices went up. I don't need the house as an asset until I retire 20 years from now. How many people are in similar situations?

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 17-12-2002 23:22 Visit DanS's homepage!
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We have had similar suburbia hard corrections in the past which might give us some clues as to what would happen, such as California in the late 80s. I have a feeling that California was more than 20% air, though. Also, I'm guessing that California had higher mobility than the country does now as a whole.

TCO is offline TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 02:49
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frigging amateur macro-weenies. WE need D2K to run roughshod over you. Boring, shnoring.

(Ming will never check this thread so I am free to misbehave.)

Oh....merry XMas to the fertile Californian, the Austrian gnome, Dutch (ok...Flemish) chocalatier, DC arbitrabiguer, etc.

Sten Sture is offline Sten Sture
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SF, CA don't call it frisco... Striker!!
Mar 1999
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  Old Post 18-12-2002 05:50 Visit Sten Sture's homepage!
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Have a good lunch tomorrow in the Beltway, many hellos from the left coast. If the baby hasn't made an appearance yet, they will induce tomorrow afternoon, so have a couple of drinks for me.

Cheers!

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 09:05
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Got spare money?

Please give my best to your wife (not sure if you want her name used on the boards). (Are you all still in the little apartment?) Going to be cozy? how many more?

Colon is offline Colon
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Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 10:16
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
"You're just ducking the question aren't you?"

Well, not really. Or at least mostly not. I'm just hedging my bets because I don't have a clear sense of how Sony approaches it normally. Also, the explanation is perhaps too long for this thread (and it's only a 1/2 formed opinion anyway). But I'll give it a go.

I have a pretty good sense of how Philips does it. Philips appears to use a standard library of in-house functional blocks which are used in concert to create a single integrated circuit that does a specified task. The IC is then sent out to a fab house (demand is probably pooled among several different internal customers). Sometimes Philips creates its own DVD players, etc. with its own ICs--very rarely with others' ICs. Let's assume that Sony goes with this approach on the PS2, and the fab and assembly houses are its own.

Nintendo uses a somewhat similar approach with the Gamecube. Instead of using an in-house functional block library, it rents others' libraries. However, not all functional blocks are available for rent (for instance, I don't think nVidia would allow Nintendo to license its functional blocks). With these functional blocks it then creates three or four ICs to do all of the tasks needed for the entire machine. Send the plans to the fab house (contract) and then assembly (contract?).

Microsoft does business differently. A good portion of the task is completed by generic ICs (and other ICs that are normally used in a PC context), and an operating system that serves as an interface between the hardware and software on a more abstract level than the PS2 and the Gamecube. For instance, the XBox uses a Pentium III 733 MHz CPU--the same one that you buy off the shelf for your PC. A ~ GeForce 4 chipset. DDR memory sticks that you could buy off the shelf.

Microsoft uses none of its own parts. The only hardware it designs is the PCB. The operating system, programming tools, etc. are largely borrowed from Windows XP. All fab and assembly is contract. Microsoft can choose among several different vendors for all of the parts that it buys.

Which of the three approaches makes the most business sense to you?

[NB: There is a fourth, new, way to do it--the soft hardware approach. But none of the three use this approach.]


I don't know about the PS, but Sony isn't zealous about using in-house components. The Vaio laptop is essentially a Toshiba with a Sony brand, a Sony slick design and network features to make it compatible to other Sony devices.

You can't really tell which production approach makes most sense because you don't know the unit costs. Using of-the-shelf components to assemble a console instead of designing them to that purpose might seem sensible but I don't know whether it's as cost-efficient.

Maybe I'm underestimating MS's efforts but I think many firms could design a console like that which means MS still has to rely on superiority in other fields to tilt the balance in its favour.

Saras is offline Saras
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Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 12:16
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I neglect the boards for like 4 months and become an "etc." in GP's world. Dang!

TCO is offline TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 12:20
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Oh...i still lub you. Need a driver?

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 13:22
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AS: We have a cyclical housing market too, that's not the problem. The problem are the people with no downpayments who life on refi and pray for low interest rates, and the lenders who depend on those or questionable insurance for their solvency.

GP: Whatcha mean, "gnome" ? You're one fat Gartenzwerg.

TCO is offline TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 20:51
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Refers back to the gnomes of Zurich. Isn't Zurich part of Austria? Don't **** with me. I'll ski over and sit on you.

pchang is offline pchang
King
Cupertino?
Aug 1999
time: 05:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 22:19
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It would be more appropriate to refer to his rank in the Navy - Captain.

Saras is offline Saras
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Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:23
  Old Post 18-12-2002 22:36
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The formidable Alpine Navy, as in Sounds of Music?

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 19-12-2002 00:13
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It's "mountain navy", you lithuanian saltwater licker.

 
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