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Alinestra Covelia
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I sense the dodgy presence of Bing - a presence I've not felt since...
Feb 2000
time: 00:26
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quote:
Originally posted by DuncanK
AC,
Interesting post. I don't think there is much chance of economic or political reforms in NK. Kim Jong Il will not give up one bit of power. |
This is what it will come down to if the surrounding powers focus entirely on matters military. However, bring economics into it and Kim Jong Il stands to gain - he will gain respect in the international arena, he will reduce the number of North Koreans fleeing across the border, and he will reduce the likelihood of the Americans forcing him into a "strike out or lose face" scenario.
quote:
He seems to care very little about the people in his country, only for his own power. I think that military reforms are all that we could hope for with diplomatic efforts. We might be able to convince him to dismanlte some of his army or his nuclear weapons programs. |
Yes, but that doesn't mean that he can't be reasoned with. Self-preservation through appeasing one's people is a fairly tried and tested phenomenon and it holds true in despotisms as well as democracies.
quote:
Of course if the economy would completely implode in NK, that would be great. |
I am afraid I do not agree completely there - economic collapse could happen in a variety of ways. In all circumstances, if the economy completely implodes, China and Eastern Russia will be swamped with North Korean refugees and the regime will have nothing but its military card to play. It may choose to forfeit the game entirely, as the East German government did during the fall of the Berlin wall. Or it may attempt to further intimidate nearby powers into providing it with unilateral aid (which suddenly-impoverished China will be simply unable to provide).
Loss of control over its populace would be the ultimate sacrifice for the North. The big issue is whether or not this happens in a constructive way (as the Chinese government has withdrawn from day to day affairs of its populace since the 1980s) or the opposite.
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Ned
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of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:26
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AC, Do you think it is either possible or useful to convene a conference among North Korea on one hand and United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea on the other?
What you describing in your post is where American Secretary of State shuttles between capitals trying to reach a consensus among various interested parties. This is what is known as shuttle diplomacy first made famous by Henry Kissinger. Powell is good, but he is no Henry Kissinger.
The more conventional models would be to get all interested parties at a common table for dialogue. The most obvious problem in forming such a conference here is that North Korea wants to talk only with the United States. Second, it is not clear that China, let alone Russia, wants to be part of a conference where United States present. Their presence at such a conference would be intended to place pressure on the NK regime, and they know it.
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Alinestra Covelia
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I sense the dodgy presence of Bing - a presence I've not felt since...
Feb 2000
time: 00:26
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Ned, good distinction. I should have made myself clearer.
The diplomacy I meant was indeed, as you describe it, "round table" diplomacy. Shuttle diplomacy in this case is too fragmented and does not bring to bear the message that the entire region is opposed to Korean nuclear proliferation.
As for the problems you outline, you are entirely right as far as pitfalls go. Putting pressure on the North is a very delicate procedure, and one that I think might most safely be breached by Russia and China, with America consenting to lend its moral support to proceedings.
North Korea's demand to speak with the US is, I believe, symbolic. Actually speaking only to the US will not solve any problems with its neighbors. The US needs to make it clear that it is not going to give the North Koreans any more symbolic ammunition for charges of "American unilateralism" in this arena, and should definitely focus on persuading the rest of its neighbors in the area to open dialogue with Korea.
This is where China could potentially hold a strong hand, given its sole position as North Korea's ally. Certainly there is the unasked question of what would happen if Beijing's grain shipments stopped coming...
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DuncanK
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Evil Empire
Dec 2002
time: 21:26
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Very similar to when they launched a missile over Japan in 1998 and were able to strike a favorable deal afterwards. I wonder if they will try to test one of those long range missiles off the West Coast of the US.
Last edited by DuncanK on 25-02-2003 at 13:08
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25-02-2003 08:00
) (gah, we REALLY need the :vomit: smiley - EDIT : aaah, found it 
)
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