05-03-2003 23:12									#61
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The only way that leaving the hut could benefit us is if it contains a Tech, because then we could save it up to get instant research for a more expensive tech than CB.
However, since Aeson's test indicate that the chances of getting a tech are 18% then it seems silly to wait.

	06-03-2003 00:22									#62
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About the Warrior/Horsemen, once HBR is researched, the Horsemen show up about 2/3rds of the time (extremely limited sampling, about 20 such huts were opened).

	06-03-2003 00:43									#63
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As for the %'s, I'm inclined to think they would turn out as rounder numbers in the actual probabilities, but it's close enough to give a general idea of what we can expect.

As a side note, I opened 5 Settlers in a row at one point in the test (disbanding each one after it showed up).

quote: The only way that leaving the hut could benefit us is if it contains a Tech

I would counter that the only way (assuming we open it now or later) that opening it now would benefit us is if it contains a Settler (8%) or Warrior (12%). The benefit of a Warrior being less than a tech, and the benefit of a Settler being greater than.

--------------------

For exploration purposes though, going due N now is more valuable. The hut is just a side benefit.

	06-03-2003 01:43									#64
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hi ,

pop it asap

have a nice day

	06-03-2003 02:39									#65
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No point in waiting on the hut. IF we get a settler. I would rather have it sooner rather than later.

	06-03-2003 03:00									#66
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I would view a 4th warrior as welcome at this point as well. That would put the favourable results near 40%. Gold is nothing to sneer at either (over 50%).

	06-03-2003 03:01									#67
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I'm with Panag here. Just pop the darn thing.

	06-03-2003 03:16									#68
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quote: Originally posted by Trip I'm with Panag here. Just pop the darn thing.

hi ,

thanks


can we now pop the thing , everyone has to be sitting on the edge of his chair by now , ......

have a nice day

	06-03-2003 03:17									#69
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yeah pop it

	06-03-2003 05:08									#70
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"What do you think I am now?"

	07-03-2003 10:48									#71
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Two possible scenarios for hut-popping in the MoW thread (or there will be soon). Let me know which you prefer and why.

	07-03-2003 11:34									#72
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Okay, the plan is laid out. Please, everyone who has something to say, comment on it here quickly. We need to make a decision before the next turn is recieved (probably within 16 hours or so), so we need input!

	07-03-2003 11:56									#73
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Leaving Poly without a warrior is not advisable.

We may also get a warrior from a hut.

Best to plan on popping the one in the north and the one in the south. We can decide what to do about the middle hut when we see the results of those two.

	07-03-2003 12:08									#74
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move up to the northern hut, pop that hut, then move onto the hill (to get a better view) and then head to the other Hut. This will take 8 turns to pop both.

E_T

	07-03-2003 12:14									#75
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I agree with NYE.

If we send Warrior 3 out to the Middle hut we put ourselves a terrible position if another team's Warrior happens by. No way a hut is worth that risk.

At the same time, moving north and then back south is wasting a lot of turns. I've always thought people place too much value on huts to make the Expansionist trait worthwhile, and I see the same reasoning here. Huts are a bonus to scouting, not it's major purpose. When a hut is negatively affecting our scouting from progressing, it isn't worth going out of our way to get.

For those who are hut starved, every turn we spend backtracking is a turn we waste in uncovering new territory which also may contain huts. I highly doubt our landmass only has 4 of them, and the huts closest to our neighbors (S is a good bet for one) are the ones we are most at risk of 'losing'.

	07-03-2003 12:24									#76
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Just in case we end up going with the blue plan, there are some improvements to be made in it. The path should be 24412, as it gets there quicker (uses our road) and uncovers more terrain on the way.

	07-03-2003 12:26									#77
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quote: Originally posted by E_T move up to the northern hut, pop that hut, then move onto the hill (to get a better view) and then head to the other Hut. This will take 8 turns to pop both.

The hill is surrounded by Jungle and so would only show us 1 more tile (4, which is Jungle) in all likelyhood.

	07-03-2003 13:32									#78
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

btw Trip, I would suggest that W3 move to the point 3 6 from Poly, then make his way up to the point 9 8 from Poly. That will reveal some of the sea tiles and who knows, maybe Moby is out there waiting to contribute to our efforts.

	07-03-2003 13:43									#79
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I want to comment on the proposal that Trip has eluded to in his MoW thread; either w2 pops both huts or the possibility of w3 comming to do one while w2 does the other.

If we build another warrior right now, that will take 1 turn (5 shields should be in the box when we get it back). I think the chop will be done in 2 more turns(is that right?)

So if we just build another warrior we could have w2 go after one of the huts and w3 go after the other, with w4 to look after things at home.

We'd also have the benefit of have 2 warriors scout for us down south, where were most likely to run into another Civ and they would be needed to find the huts before they do.

If the chop is at 2 turns till finnish, and we could build a warrior in one, with the resulting chop being applied to the granary, I think we should go for it. We delay by two turns the granery, but we gain an extra scout and extra defense against angry barbs.

	07-03-2003 14:29									#80
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You have a point, bigfree. I thought we could not complete another warrior in time to beat the chop, but we can.

It would certainly make popping huts less risky with another Warrior around. We also have an extra 25 gold on hand which we did not when it was decided to stay at 4 units total.

Can we catch Dominae's attention?

	07-03-2003 14:44									#81
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I think he'd go for it. I would like to get him onboard with it if we can.

As far as supporting another unit, we'd have to do that anyway if we popped one out of one of the huts. And I'm sure he wouldn't suggest the we disband a unit that we got 'free' from a hut either.

How much time (approx) before we have to play our next turn without incurring any penalties?

BTW, I think that you would have seen this as a possibility when you played this turn. Things are always easier to see when they are happening in front of you.

	07-03-2003 15:49									#82
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The drawback being that we lose half a pop point by building a Warrior first. I'd rather see us build the Granary, then the Warriors.

	07-03-2003 18:18									#83
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I agree with Aeson (again ), it will take too long to get a second city and we will lose population by building a fourth warrior..... I say stick to the initial plan of having 4 units total.

	07-03-2003 18:45									#84
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Dominae's attention has been gotten (English?). Delaying the Granary just to chase after Huts is not a good idea, IMO (in agreement with Aeson). I think that our lone Warrior is sufficient to pop both Huts. We lose a few exploration turns, but that's a sacrifice to make. But I'm not big on making the sacrifice of delaying the Granary.


Dominae

	07-03-2003 19:11									#85
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Agreed.

	07-03-2003 20:34									#86
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Okay, after hearing the discussion I think I'm going to go with the first plan for the endorsement of the MoW.

Unless someone can come up with a better tile-by-tile plan (which I'm going to look into) the plan will be to have W2 pop the center hut then the southern hut. If we pop the southern hut then the center hut, we'll lose around 3 more turns for our exploration, so I have to try to strike a balance between exploration and popping the huts.

	07-03-2003 22:27									#87
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson The drawback being that we lose half a pop point by building a Warrior first. I'd rather see us build the Granary, then the Warriors.

I'm not sure how you come to this conclusion. I think your assuming that we'd be able to finnish the granary before we grow to size 3 and thus have a half-full food storage box when we do grow.

How are we to finnish the granery before we grow? The numbers don't add up for me. A ganery costs more than a barracks; we could finnish the barracks before that but a granary wouldn't be finnished.

We would be able to finnish the granery before we grow to size 4, but not before size 3

As soon as the chop is done that forrested tile no longer produces 2 shields, we can't get the same production we have now(food and shields) after the forrest is gone.

Someone please explain it to me otherwise.

EDIT:
Barracks= 40 shields
Granary = 60 shields

	07-03-2003 22:40									#88
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We will not, in any case, finish the Granary before we grow to size 3.

I think the argument isn't not to delay the Granary, but not to delay the settler that follows it.

See the Ministry of the Interior thread for a detailed plan. Click on my spreadsheet and go to Scenario 7. That is the path we're taking.

EDIT: it is even better to click this link.

	07-03-2003 22:50									#89
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster We will not, in any case, finish the Granary before we grow to size 3. I think the argument isn't not to delay the Granary, but not to delay the settler that follows it. See the Ministry of the Interior thread for a detailed plan. Click on my spreadsheet and go to Scenario 7. That is the path we're taking. EDIT: it is even better to click this link.

Well that is not what is stated above and what everyone is saying; "Oh, I agree with that.", with "that" being us losing half a pop point.

It clearly states that the reason is that Aeson doesn't support building a 4th warrior is "The drawback being that we lose half a pop point by building a Warrior first. I'd rather see us build the Granary, then the Warriors."

We put 10 shields (for warrior) to another item besides a granary and suddenly we're 'losing' something? I don't get it. Yes, maybe we get a settler 2 turns later(maybe even one turn, haven't run the numbers, but in no case would it be more than 2), but we gain more strength and more defensability against whomever our closest neighbor is and we get more insurance as to securing that third hut.

Edit:
BFM; Can you adjust your spreadsheet to account going for the 4th warrior? Thanks.

	07-03-2003 23:05									#90
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I think it's better if Dominae runs his simulation first - that way, it is easier to see what will happen if we include another warrior (I'm just guessing numbers in a sheet).