08-03-2003 01:46									#91
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I have not had time to run the simulation of a fourth Warrior, and I will not before Sunday because I'm away from Civ3 for the weekend (the horror!).

But, if you'll read my own argument bigfree1, it is simply that I do not believe a fourth Warrior is worth it if all we'll be using it for is chasing down a Hut. Exploration is definitely important, but a rapidly growing economy is better. This is why I'm against any plan that delays our Granary (and therefore the first Settler) any further.

If you can give me a knock-down argument of a concrete advantage that fourth Warrior is better than a quick Settler (and not "we might get a free Settler, we could lose a Hut to the 'enemy'", etc.), I'll rethink my position.


Dominae

	08-03-2003 01:51									#92
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Ok, I felt bad about not doing the math myself, so I spent a few minutes on doing a simulation of the fourth Warrior plan. As it turns out, we will actually lose pop in this case. The reason is that Apolyton will grow to size 4 the same turn it finishes a Granary if it produces four Warriors first. This results in 10 lost Food. And at this time in the game, that's bad. So Aeson's argument is valid after all.


Dominae

	08-03-2003 01:58									#93
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I've run some quick numbers in my spreadsheet and found that delaying the Granary for an additional Warrior will be detrimental to out growth, as the granary will be built in the same turn as we will grow to size 4, leaving the granary empty and stunting out later growth and REXing capablities...

I agree with Dominae, we stick to the current plan.

E_T

	08-03-2003 02:10									#94
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I was under the impression we were timing it to build by the time we grew (either 3 or 4). I see we aren't, I appologize.

	08-03-2003 02:14									#95
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Aeson, Apolyton grows to size 4 two turns after the Granary is completed. If we build a Warrior in two turns before the Granary, we lose the Granary effect for growth from 3 to 4. I hope this clarifies things.


Dominae

	08-03-2003 02:20									#96
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I just forgot to post my reply while doing other things (running simulations on how/if we could complete the granary before size 3 hits). Then I noticed and just hit the reply... it was actually written before your post.

I really should check if threads have been updated before posting..

	08-03-2003 03:20									#97
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quote: Originally posted by E_T I've run some quick numbers in my spreadsheet and found that delaying the Granary for an additional Warrior will be detrimental to out growth, as the granary will be built in the same turn as we will grow to size 4, leaving the granary empty and stunting out later growth and REXing capablities... I agree with Dominae, we stick to the current plan. E_T

Uh fellows, wouldn't it be easy, according to you numbers, to just switch tiles for one turn so that we get more shields and less food on just one turn when we are between 3 and 4 in population? That way we wouldn't lose that poulation point you guys are so stuck on. It seems that you guys are stuck in your way of thinking and can't possibly think of a way to do this without losing a population point.

I did in just 2 seconds, please understand that I feel you are not giving my agrument any real thought; maybe because you don't know me that well, but it's not right to dismiss what I'm saying because you feel I don't have the experience you do. It feels like you guys are trying to find a reason for this to work versus finding a reason to knock it down. I'm not saying this to any one person but to the group in general.

I've run a simulation based upon the data we have and we lose only two turns (from getting the settler) by building a 4th warrior.

I believe this warrior is more valuable to us than just for goody hut hunting; he will be available for defense of our Captitol or Settler if another Civ should come by. WE are not alone on this Continent, we need defense as much as anything else right now. One warrior in our only city is not adequate in my opinion.

	08-03-2003 03:39									#98
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BF is right here. If we don't build a 4th Warrior, then we'll only have 1 unit defending two cities for however long we have until we build another military unit. His plan seems sound, and I can see the merit in it.

	08-03-2003 03:44									#99
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I'm relooking at it, just to give you a full comparison.

E_T

	08-03-2003 03:55									#100
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After the Settler is complete, the fourth Warrior is done 2 turns later. So, yes, there is a small window of risk, but not that big of a deal, IMO.


Dominae

	08-03-2003 04:03									#101
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2 turn window or not, in any case, things get much simpler if we build the Warrior beforehand.

	08-03-2003 04:03									#102
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quote: Originally posted by Dominae After the Settler is complete, the fourth Warrior is done 2 turns later. So, yes, there is a small window of risk, but not that big of a deal, IMO. Dominae

It's not just that time period though. What about all the time it takes to build the garnary and then the Settler? We will have only one unit to protect our only city with! This is not good. What if just one warrior comes by? I'll bet we would shift production for another unit to defend. What would happen to all those shields in the build? They would be mostly(depends when and if another unit shows) gone!

I don't like that we have only one, unit to defend our Capitol. We need another for security.

	08-03-2003 04:09									#103
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With such a minor effect on production (settler delayed by 2 turns, all following units delayed by 1, as E_T has told me), for the effect of doubling our defense is a very good deal. Not often will an opportunity like that present itself. Besides, that extra Warrior may make the difference between "their military is about the same size as ours" and "their army is bigger" in the diplomacy screen.

	08-03-2003 04:28									#104
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Trip and bigfree1, you're both discounting the cumulative effects of early growth. Yes, we "double" our defense by getting an extra Warrior, but 95% likely that Warrior will not be doing a darn thing. But 100% likely getting that Settler out sooner will help us out in the long run. It's easy to say that 2 turns is not much, but it all adds up. And I assume you do want a good productive base (one that at least matches our opponents) for when we do want to start making real war.

My thinking is that we need a minimum of Warriors to 1) to do some preliminary exploring, and 2) have some means of protection in case the truly unlikely happens (i.e. Barbs appear this early, or another team slips in a Warrior of their own all the way up into our lands undetected). What we can actually accomplish with that extra Warrior is incomparable to what getting the Settler out early does.


Dominae

Last edited by Dominae on 08-03-2003 at 04:35

	08-03-2003 04:34									#105
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quote: Originally posted by bigfree1 It's not just that time period though. What about all the time it takes to build the garnary and then the Settler? We will have only one unit to protect our only city with! This is not good. What if just one warrior comes by?

Consider the scenario you're suggesting: another civ would have to 1) pass into our lands undetected (our Warriors cast a pretty wide net when they're exploring), 2) cross our borders without the full intent to destroy us with only 1 Warrior as an offensive force, and 3) actually expect this Warrior to win a tough battle. Sure, it could happen. But it's really very unlikely. Like I've said before, teams will not be taking chances like that here, in comparison to internet MP games.


Dominae

	08-03-2003 04:45									#106
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The decision is up to the Ministry of the Interior. If they feel that the best way to approach the situation is to lay down as many cities as possible, then that is how it will be. The MoW will put faith in the MoI to deliver what is necessary, then we will work with what we have from there. All I know is that there has been/will be a fairly lengthy period of time where our nation's core will be defended by 1 Warrior, and 0 flexibility to approach whatever may happen.

	08-03-2003 04:46									#107
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I've looked at doing what Bigfree1 was talking about and delaying the pop growth.... Here is what I found.

If we run 2 turns with working all Grassland (right before the granary is built), then the pop increase is delayed by 1 turn. With the extra Warrior, the Granary and the first settler (and the warrior right after that) are all delayed by 2 turns. The NM/Settler combos that will be coming off after that are all delayed by 1 turn.

So we have a 2 turn + 1 turn per additional settler that will be pushed back in Settling (trade, production and population).

Also, The overall longterm trade output of Apolyton is the same. But we will have to maintain unit support for that extra warrior for atleast 19 turns (until the first city is built) AND will have to maintain the Lux slider for 2 additional turns.

So, yes, we can have that extra warrior right now, but the longterm effects will be detrimental to us in the long run.

There are already teams that have a second city and there are some with a higher growth rate than us (from the scores and F11 screens). We don't need to put ourselves further behind than we are already with our terrain handicap.

I still recommend with going with the original plan.

E_T

	08-03-2003 04:48									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Trip With such a minor effect on production (settler delayed by 2 turns, all following units delayed by 1, as E_T has told me), for the effect of doubling our defense is a very good deal. Not often will an opportunity like that present itself. Besides, that extra Warrior may make the difference between "their military is about the same size as ours" and "their army is bigger" in the diplomacy screen.

I had also stated that I had additional information and had to go AFK before I could give it, which I did when I had come back.

E_T

	08-03-2003 04:52									#109
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quote: Originally posted by E_T I had also stated that I had additional information and had to go AFK before I could give it, which I did when I had come back. E_T

But we all know I can blame that on you.

	08-03-2003 04:53									#110
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quote: Originally posted by E_T Also, The overall longterm trade output of Apolyton is the same. But we will have to maintain unit support for that extra warrior for atleast 19 turns (until the first city is built) AND will have to maintain the Lux slider for 2 additional turns. E_T

Is using the Lux slider taking into account another unit to promote happiness? We are in regent, right?

	08-03-2003 05:23									#111
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I think the concensus is to keep to the path laid out for the fastest settler.

We will have to make do.

	08-03-2003 05:37									#112
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

The decision is ultimately up to the Consuls, of course. But, correct me if I'm wrong, are not matters of defense, and therefore unit production, up to the Minister of War? I mean, if Trip thinks 4 Warriors are absolutely necessary, I'll gladly oblige. I just hope to convince him that it's not in our best interests, from an economic point of view. I fully admit that running fewer Warriors is a risk, and I believe it is up to Trip (and ultimately the Consuls) to decide if it is a risk worth taking (which I think it is).


Dominae

	08-03-2003 05:41									#113
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If we were sitting in the middle of a 50 by 50 tile plain rather than a 1 tile isthmus to our north, coast to our east and west and a massive jungle to our south, then I would encourage the building of a 4th Warrior vehemently. However, at this point I will remain neutral, and allow the MoI and the consulate to decide. I will save my most poerful arguments for the future when we have more information and more cities.

	08-03-2003 05:46									#114
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Also, for the moment I can only view and post a certain select number of threads, since I mysteriously got deleted from all of my civ groups and need to be re-added to the ISDG one. For now I think I can see most of the recent threads I've posted in, but I'm not sure if that will last.

	08-03-2003 05:50									#115
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quote: Originally posted by Trip Also, for the moment I can only view and post a certain select number of threads, since I mysteriously got deleted from all of my civ groups and need to be re-added to the ISDG one. For now I think I can see most of the recent threads I've posted in, but I'm not sure if that will last.

All of your icons that denote the groups you belong to are still next to your name. Kinda weird. I notice weird things happening on the boards when traffic gets high.

	08-03-2003 05:53									#116
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I re-added myself to them when I found out they disappeared.

So now I can't get into the Lux or the ISDG forums without having subscribed to any of the threads in those forums.

	08-03-2003 05:54									#117
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Someone needs to re-approve your membership, at least that's what it sounds like. Who does that for this game?

	08-03-2003 06:02									#118
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BetaHound or Aro.

	08-03-2003 06:26									#119
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and Trip does it for Lux, I do beleave....

E_T

	08-03-2003 06:34									#120
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Being that I was the one to authorize people and I'm locked out, it may be that I'm out for good.