28-04-2003 05:27									#91
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By the way, since we're getting SunTzu's next turn, we can switch our catapult producers to WCs. Not that it matters in the immediate term.

-Arrian

	28-04-2003 05:27									#92
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I went ahead and did the Sun Tsu's rush and reshuffled tiles in the South. Galleys in Sufa and Typhoon next turn are confirmed.

	28-04-2003 05:28									#93
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By the way, where did the eastern galleys end their turn? Next to the Voxian one, next to the iron colony?

-Arrian

	28-04-2003 05:29									#94
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I was just saying to keep the 20g. The reg Sword to Tempest is the best move (upgrading it or not).

	28-04-2003 05:31									#95
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I think Sufa's galley is the most likely to drop troops by the Iron Colony. We can't take troops away from Hurricane in the next 2 turns, but after that there may be some spare units to send. Depends on how the 5 Immortals fare.

	28-04-2003 05:31									#96
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I haven't finished moving the eastern galleys yet; I haven't even started moving the second one. My proposal was to end both of them at 6 from the Iron colony. Aeson is thinking in terms of one 6 from the colony and one 6-9 from it.

	28-04-2003 05:31									#97
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We can sell all our barracks this turn right?

Unless something weird would happen of course.

	28-04-2003 05:33									#98
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6 and 69 of the Iron Colony will also block any voxian vessels from coming back S too. It's a little safer for the one out to see as well.

Then both could attack the Vox Galley next turn, or stay there.

	28-04-2003 05:34									#99
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Upgrading is a gamble, but if Vox attacks, I'd like to have some troops to go after their survivors. Edit: Then again, there would be plenty of time to upgrade before Vox's survivors could get back to their own territory, now that I think about it. So let's hold off the upgrade.

	28-04-2003 05:35									#100
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Cant sell the barracks in cities before Cyclone... I think that's only EotS and Hurricane. It might hurt our healing too, not sure. We don't need the cash this turn, so probably safest just to leave them and sell them next turn.

	28-04-2003 05:39									#101
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Well, a 2HP 2D unit on a mountain is harder to kill than a 1HP 2D+F unit on a mountain. So any survivors they have we should plink down with Cats before attacking first anyways.

If they had a 1 HP defender left for our newly upgraded Med Inf to kill, it pays off. Otherwise we should just wait.

	28-04-2003 05:39									#102
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So if we don't upgrade, we'll end up with four pikes, a regular medieval infantry, and a regular sword (plus WCs) in Tempest. Does that sound good? By the way, I'm thinking pull the WC that finished off GoW's forces last turn back to Tempest to heal.

	28-04-2003 05:40									#103
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I'd keep the galleys together. The upgrade... either way is fine by me.

-Arrian

	28-04-2003 05:41									#104
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Sounds good.

What about the worker lure? Any thoughts on if we should do it. Probably they send out their 1HP Immortal to grab it if they do go for it... and that's a perfect Leader opportunity.

	28-04-2003 05:45									#105
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What do we do with our new Medieval Infantry from Hurricane and our pike from EotS? Sandstorm 6 might be good just in case Vox tries to go after Sandstorm from both sides on the flatlands. And I'm thinking move the EotS pike cross-river the same way we've been doing. Then we can add a pike each to Hurricane 8 and Sandstorm 6 next turn, assuming we don't suffer a total disaster in the west.

	28-04-2003 05:48									#106
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As much as I hate to sacrifice a worker, it's probably worth it.

	28-04-2003 05:48									#107
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Upgrade the sword now. We never know when they will commit more Immortals to the plains. Better to attack with a 4 attack unit than a 3 if something strange happens between turns, no?

	28-04-2003 05:48									#108
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I agree on all those points Nathan. We'll almost certainly want the EotS Pike on H8 next turn to keep it safe.

	28-04-2003 05:50									#109
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Unless there is a good reason to save the 20 gold.

	28-04-2003 05:50									#110
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I agree, Nathan, that's exactly how I'd do it.

-Arrian

	28-04-2003 05:53									#111
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Aeson, what are the odds (as best you can pin them down) of a pike in Tempest taking no damage or only one point of damage from a vet immortal? Please factor in the fact that the first three would have cats taking a shot at the immortal on its way in.

	28-04-2003 05:54									#112
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I think we can short rush a Pike in Bolderberg next turn. There will be Cats at 68g a peice in WW, SS, and OG.

How much gold can we expect next turn?

	28-04-2003 05:57									#113
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay Aeson, what are the odds (as best you can pin them down) of a pike in Tempest taking no damage or only one point of damage from a vet immortal? Please factor in the fact that the first three would have cats taking a shot at the immortal on its way in.

Over 30% chance per Pike attacked of winning with no loss or only 1 pip lost. That is against a Vet Immortal with no Cat factored in.

CFC combat calc.

	28-04-2003 06:02									#114
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

re the East and SS6.

They have 3 Immortals to strike H8, and we have 3 units? Next turn they have 5, correct?

Are we going a little thin at H8 if we send 2 units to SS6 this turn?

	28-04-2003 06:04									#115
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It's 15.5% for no damage without the Cat.
It's another 21.3% for 1 damage without the Cat.

The Cat eats up a bad roll (one which would hit the Pike) about 37.2% of the time. I'm not sure how to account for that (or even if I should). It also knocks the Immortal down a hp about half the time.

So: (ratio of 1:1 for 3hp vs 4hp Immortal)

It's 24.8:15.5 that no hps are taken off. 20.15% no damage with cat support.

It's 27.6:21.3 that 1 hps are taken off. 24.45% that 1 damage is taken with cat support.

So overall it's 44.6% that the fortified Vet Pike in Arashi with Cat support takes 0 or 1 damage from a Vet Immortal.

(sorry if my math is off.. but it should be close)

	28-04-2003 06:04									#116
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We're currently at +134 (with 37 gold in the bank). But I think we're probably past the point where we need to use cash to rush units. We're up to average relative to them in spite of the advisor's ridiculous undervaluing of WCs, and once we break their Spinebreaker force (or maybe just once we build a few more units), we'll be strong.

	28-04-2003 06:06									#117
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We have 4 units at H8 this turn, and will have 2 more Pikes to put on it next turn if we want. So 5 Immortals can't break through the first turn (EDIT: that they have 5 available to attack with), and we will have Pikes each turn that can make it there from Hurricane and EotS from now until the end of our GA.

	28-04-2003 06:10									#118
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I won't feel safe until H8 is a done deal. Currently it would take 3 or 4 pikes to secure it (4 to be safe). I think we should rush a few pikes in the smaller cities starting after the completion of ST's.

We are only done rushing units if we want to drag this war out longer than need be.

	28-04-2003 06:11									#119
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If their stack does break this turn, I think we should consider the Aquaduct in Tempest as our next cash rush. If we lose 2-3 Pikes though, I think short rushing the Pike in Bolderberg would be a good idea.

	28-04-2003 06:12									#120
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson We have 4 units at H8 this turn, and will have 2 more Pikes to put on it next turn if we want. So 5 Immortals can't break through the first turn (EDIT: that they have 5 available to attack with), and we will have Pikes each turn that can make it there from Hurricane and EotS from now until the end of our GA.

Good, I forgot about the MedInf in H8.