28-04-2003 06:12									#121
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Aeson's math would seem to give Vox about a 50-50 chance of getting a shot at a swordsman or medieval infantry if they attack Tempest (i.e. of not having two or more pikes survive intact enough to take on a second attacker), and if they do, it's probably going to be with a regular immortal so we'd have about a 50% chance of surviving that attack. So even if they attack Tempest, there's only about a 25% risk that we'd lose our newly upgraded medieval infantry if we go ahead and upgrade. (Yes, this is very rough math, but it shouldn't be way too far off.) And it's also entirely possible that Vox won't attack Tempest. Given that situation, my inclination is to go ahead and upgrade.

	28-04-2003 06:14									#122
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The thing about the Aquaduct in Tempest is it comes out as a 40g per turn 'rushing units' upgrade to our production capacity... so should pay off in roughly 5-6 turns. Since our offensive will take significantly longer than that, it should actually speed up the conquest (if there are no immediate threats to our cities of course).

H8 is as close to a done deal as it can get IMO. A Pike in SS next turn would be great though. (more reason to keep that 20g)

	28-04-2003 06:20									#123
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By the time Vox can bring five immortals to bear, we can have two pikes (one fortified), a fortified veteran medieval infantry, and two fortified regular swordsmen on H8 and two pikes (one fortified), a fortified vet swordsman, and a fortified vet medieval infantry on SS6. Since three of Vox's immortals would be regular, Vox's odds of penetrating H8 would be less than one in a hundred, and we could scramble the SS6 defenders, two new pikes, and a new medieval infantry from Tornado to deal with the situation - plus another two pikes by the time any but Vox's last last attacker could reach H8. That seems like an acceptable risk at Hurricane 8, and it gives us an excellent shot of holding SS6 as well.

	28-04-2003 06:23									#124
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Compare that 25% risk to the payoff though. +1 on offense with a 3HP attacker going onto the Mountains. The chance for a Sword vs a 2HP 2D unit is 57%, chance for a Med Inf in the same situation is 68%.

Against a 1HP unit (which would be the only case I'd want us using 3HP units against the troops on Mountains) the odds are S 81, M 87.

I don't think the payoff covers the bet.

	28-04-2003 06:23									#125
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A pike in Sandstorm next turn would be an interesting proposition. We could guarantee that H8 would hold while at the same time having two pikes and two other units on SS6. But upgrading a sword this turn would not stop us from doing that.

	28-04-2003 06:27									#126
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The cost is 108 for the SS Pike. How much for the Bolderberg short rush?

	28-04-2003 06:28									#127
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If Vox attacks, we'll have six cats to dent whatever is left of their forces. By the time that's done, are you so sure they'll have anything left with more than one hit point? Also, there's a chance (albeit a small one) that Vox might move 8 toward Sandstorm next turn. If they do that, an extra medieval infantry to supplement our WCs could come in handy.

	28-04-2003 06:29									#128
	Increase the size of your Attachments

I'd like the vet MedInf in Tempest to take a whack at an Immortal.

	28-04-2003 06:30									#129
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Good job on troop dispositions, btw.

	28-04-2003 06:32									#130
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It's 50:50 odds. Defending the Vet Med Inf gets another 6.5% odds of winning.

	28-04-2003 06:32									#131
	Got spare money?

32 for the Bolderberg short rush. (I put Bolderberg up to 12 net shields last turn, at the expense of a little gold, just in case we might want to do a short rush there.) So we can afford both rushes and the upgrade.

	28-04-2003 06:34									#132
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quote: If Vox attacks, we'll have six cats to dent whatever is left of their forces. By the time that's done, are you so sure they'll have anything left with more than one hit point?

That's my point, the odds for the Reg Sword are almost the same as the odds for the Reg Med Inf if there are 1HP Immortals to be killed.

	28-04-2003 06:35									#133
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quote: 32 for the Bolderberg short rush. (I put Bolderberg up to 12 net shields last turn, at the expense of a little gold, just in case we might want to do a short rush there.) So we can afford both rushes and the upgrade.

Then I'm fine with either way.

	28-04-2003 06:36									#134
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

In favor of Theseus's idea, using our vet to attack dents Vox's stack no matter which city they go for, while on defense, the vet is completely useless if Vox attacks the city he's not in. The down side is that if we lose, Arashi comes out a defender short and wounded units are more likely to get killed if Vox attacks Arashi. (I've already moved a reg sword and a reg med inf into Tempest.)

	28-04-2003 06:38									#135
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One other thought on Theseus's idea: if Vox bypasses both cities and goes for EotS, attacking now means we attack with less favorable odds than we'll get later after they leave the mountains.

	28-04-2003 06:38									#136
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Another downside is we lose a full HP Med Inf to kill wounded units with. This risks another Elite WC if we lose (or get dropped to 1 HP) right?

	28-04-2003 06:41									#137
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

One other thing... it gives them more reason to hit us next turn if we dent or kill another Immortal. They'd see they really can't make it to EotS (with much other than mostly dead Immortals) in any case.

	28-04-2003 06:43									#138
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We'd have to bring in a wounded WC from Sandstorm if we lose, which would prevent it from healing next turn. If we attack with our vet med. inf. and fail, especially if Vox's unit has two or more hit points left, Vox's odds of doing serious damage if they attack Sandstorm go up dramatically.

Edit: Note that if Vox is the attacker, even if they win, their immortal's movement for the turn is used up and we can bring pikes back from Tempest before they get a chance to strike again - not to mention having to withstand attacks from six cats.

	28-04-2003 06:44									#139
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

That all said... it's basically 50:50... whatever we do the RNG will decide if it was a good idea or not.

(so go for it if you really want to)

	28-04-2003 06:45									#140
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I think we lose SS in any case if they go for it?

	28-04-2003 06:50									#141
	Full PM-box? Change here!

re attacking Vox this turn. They are in a positon that they can always walk out from. The less we do to them, the greater the chance they will move deeper into our territory, or enter into the flats. We want those 6 immortals to do one of those things.

We also must be wary about the road they are finishing (on their next turn?). It could deliver a pile of immortals adjacent to Arashi with no warning.

	28-04-2003 06:53									#142
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I think they need 1 more turn for the road. They moved the Workers there 2 turns ago, last turn they started the road, next they will be a turn away from finishing it, and the turn after it's finished.

	28-04-2003 06:53									#143
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Sandstorm or Cyclone?

If Vox makes a run straight at Sandstorm, they could have as many as ten immortals next to it next turn. We could counterattack with a similar number of units, and move in three pikes to try to hold against whatever is left. (Our sword and medieval infantry from SS6 could also move into Sandstorm before attacking.) So whether we could hold Sandstorm would depend very heavily on the RNG.

	28-04-2003 07:00									#144
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All the more reason to whittling them down (whether units or just units' hps) when we can.

We;ve got I think 3 vet MedInf at full strength? Let's take a shot with one...

	28-04-2003 07:03									#145
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither We also must be wary about the road they are finishing (on their next turn?). It could deliver a pile of immortals adjacent to Arashi with no warning.

Maybe a little too late and too expensive, but a temple in Monsoon would offset such a treat.
(In a couple of turns anyway)

	28-04-2003 07:03									#146
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We can currently account for 15 Voxian immortals, five spearmen, and a galley.

Our own forces stand at six medieval infantry, four swords, eight WCs, ten pikes, six cats, and three galleys.

That more or less defines the parameters for how many more immortals Vox could have waiting in the wings, but I doubt that it's a huge number.

	28-04-2003 07:03									#147
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Theseus, we attack and lose, we can't follow up. They can walk out. Their already wounded immortal and the one we newly wound move to Arashi 3, where they are met by the spear and immortal from Arashi 9. Or their whole stack moves out. They will most likely check and see that the power equation has changed.

Is that a good plan?

	28-04-2003 07:05									#148
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Alva, it would take five turns after we built a temple (probably counting the turn the temple finishes) before our culture would expand to negate the road. By then, I'm betting the road will be under our control.

	28-04-2003 07:08									#149
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By (very) rough count, that leaves them about 20-30 military advisor 'points' to spread around. That could be up to 15 Warriors... or 8 Immortals.

	28-04-2003 07:10									#150
	Inflate your Upload Space

If Vox attacks Arashi, the vet medieval infantry is worth more on defense than on offense. If Vox attacks Arashi, he's our logical lead unit to finish off the survivors. And that vet is our logical lead unit for the assault on Dissidentville, but only if he survives.