26-07-2003 19:02									#1
	What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies? Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Will a new 'strong man' take over? Will Cuba become a democracy? If so how long after Castro's death?

I think that we in the west have assumed that the Cuban regime will fall rather quickly after Castro kicks the bucket. But is that necessarily so? Clearly the economic situation in Cuba is a disaster but are the people so unhappy that they're willing to take to the streets to force the change? I wonder!

	26-07-2003 19:09									#2
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"Clearly the economic situation in Cuba is a disaster"

What?! It's a communist paradise!

	26-07-2003 19:23									#3
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well cuba is not exactly an economic disaster ... when you compare it to most of South America they do fairly well

	26-07-2003 19:25									#4
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Red Herring anyone?

	26-07-2003 19:33									#5
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Who says that Castro is going to die?

	26-07-2003 19:33									#6
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I can't believe that I get to be the first. The answer is:

and and and

	26-07-2003 20:43									#7
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But how do you know that?

	26-07-2003 20:47									#8
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It depends on whether or not Raul dies before him. Raul is "heir apparent," but he's getting pretty old himself.

One of three things is going to happen when the Castros are gone.

1) Things will continue as they are. Cuba's pretty stable, and most of the people who live there, while reaslizing things could be better, know things could be much, much worse. They only have to look at the rest of Latin America to realize how much better off theyr are.

2) Things will get worse. The Party will clamp down on any suspected political dissidence because they feel they are in more danger than every before.

3) Things will get much worse. The Party will fall, capitalism will return, and Cuba will become another Jamaica, only poorer.

	26-07-2003 20:49									#9
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The Cuban Exiles will return. Cuba will enter into a much closer relationship with the United States.

	26-07-2003 20:52									#10
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Cuban geneticists will clone a new Castro.

	26-07-2003 20:53									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Lonestar The Cuban Exiles will return. Cuba will enter into a much closer relationship with the United States.

Why do you think they will return?

Why would they want to leave the good life they have in the US for an extremely dubious one in post-Castro Cuba?

Why do you think the Cubans would allow them to return?

	26-07-2003 21:02									#12
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(1) I have a coworker who's family was a prominent one before the revolution. They have an announced intentioned to return as soon as Castro and Raul are dead. (This follows the trend of Afghan and Iraqi Exiles returning to help their countries)

(2) Pride in their country. (and a return to running things)

(3) Why do you think they wouldn't?

	26-07-2003 21:03									#13
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The question is moot. Castro is immortal.

	26-07-2003 21:04									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Lonestar (3) Why do you think they wouldn't?

Because most Cubans actually support the revolution and are socialists?

	26-07-2003 21:08									#15
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If that were so, then why do so many try to leave the country every year? Didn't they try to hijack a ferry awhile back for chrissakes?

	26-07-2003 21:12									#16
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a) How many mexicans run to the US every year?

b) Most do. Not all. You've got stereovision on this, apparently.

	26-07-2003 21:13									#17
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And the big surprise is that most also blame the US for a lot of their troubles, not Castro.

Wait. That's not a surprise at all.

	26-07-2003 21:14									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Lonestar If that were so, then why do so many try to leave the country every year? Didn't they try to hijack a ferry awhile back for chrissakes?

So many is really not that many, but that's because it's an island. My principle question in this regard, keeps getting ignored, perhaps because it's terribly logical.

If Cuba is so bad, why aren't people fleeing to the Bahamas and Haiti, which are both closer and safer to get to? Answer, because of the jobs.

Migration from Cuba is principly the same as migration from Mexico. No one would suggest that Mexicans illegally emigrating into the US are doing so because they hate the Mexican government and long to return after the PRI falls (oh wait, it fell, no exodus).

Times are hard in Cuba, no doubt. But people act like times haven't always been hard in the rest of Latin America. Cuba's a refuge compared to most of the rest of the Caribbean.

And while you know people who say they're gonna go back once the Castros are gone, I know Cubans in the US who support the revolution and say that the Cubans on the island don't want the gusanos (worms) back. They're happy top be rid of them.

	26-07-2003 21:16									#19
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It will never happen. Castro is immortal.

	26-07-2003 21:18									#20
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Copying my answers?

	26-07-2003 21:20									#21
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quote: Originally posted by SpencerH But how do you know that?

You doubt me? That was supposed to happen when Kim left. Maybe we need to "help" a little. Will be great to cause buttlock in the Che-cuties. People who are faux commmies and eat at HEartland CAfe.

	26-07-2003 21:21									#22
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara It depends on whether or not Raul dies before him. Raul is "heir apparent," but he's getting pretty old himself. One of three things is going to happen when the Castros are gone. 1) Things will continue as they are. Cuba's pretty stable, and most of the people who live there, while reaslizing things could be better, know things could be much, much worse. They only have to look at the rest of Latin America to realize how much better off theyr are. 2) Things will get worse. The Party will clamp down on any suspected political dissidence because they feel they are in more danger than every before. 3) Things will get much worse. The Party will fall, capitalism will return, and Cuba will become another Jamaica, only poorer.

Maybe it will be more like Miami. Capitalism makes you rich.

	26-07-2003 21:24									#23
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They shoulda named Castro God instead of that African guy.

	26-07-2003 21:24									#24
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Because most Cubans actually support the revolution and are socialists?

The USSR is no longer full of avid socialists.

	26-07-2003 21:29									#25
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quote: Originally posted by TCO Maybe it will be more like Miami. Capitalism makes you rich.

Tell that to latin america.

	26-07-2003 21:29									#26
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara It depends on whether or not Raul dies before him. Raul is "heir apparent," but he's getting pretty old himself. One of three things is going to happen when the Castros are gone. 1) Things will continue as they are. Cuba's pretty stable, and most of the people who live there, while reaslizing things could be better, know things could be much, much worse. They only have to look at the rest of Latin America to realize how much better off theyr are. 2) Things will get worse. The Party will clamp down on any suspected political dissidence because they feel they are in more danger than every before. 3) Things will get much worse. The Party will fall, capitalism will return, and Cuba will become another Jamaica, only poorer.

Not to be rude, but those are the obvious (if slanted) choices. What I'm looking for are comments by those who may have contact with everyday Cubans. My only contacts have been with scientists and physicians who have been impressive despite their lack of technology (or perhaps because of it).

	26-07-2003 21:29									#27
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quote: Originally posted by TCO The USSR is no longer full of avid socialists.

Good for them. I don't remember claiming that it ever was.

	26-07-2003 21:39									#28
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quote: Originally posted by TCO Maybe it will be more like Miami. Capitalism makes you rich.

It makes some people rich. It makes a lot of people poor. All the Cubans have to do is look at Eastern Europe to see what will happen to them if they embrace the Bautistas and terrorists.

And the Cuban part of Miami ain't all that rich (though better off than Little Haiti).

	26-07-2003 22:16									#29
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Good for them. I don't remember claiming that it ever was.

MAybe Cuba isn't either. Especially after the people are free to say their minds...

	26-07-2003 22:19									#30
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I'll have few Singapore Slings