29-07-2003 02:57									#121
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Actually, I don't think we import sugar at all. I've never seen any sugar in stores from any where but Florida and Hawaii. The only thing close is Canadian maple syrup, and even that's rare. I'm not sure having access to the American market would help . . . except that they could market their sugar as organic. Cuba's a massive producer of organic crops (since they can't afford petro based fertilizers and pesticides). Cuba might make organics affordable in the US (which would probably kill organic producers here).

i didnt think cane sugar could be grown on a large scale in the US... i thought it required a tropical or subtropical climate or somethn like that (i could imagine florida growing it commercially, but not much more than that).

I dont think the organic sugar market is that big. By anymeans, at least in my arguement with krazyhorse, it isnt a multibillion dollar industry that could turn Cuba around

	29-07-2003 02:57									#122
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Across the ocean is very important. Otherwise explain why we do 100 times more trade with you than with Europe, which is of comparable economic size.

Trick question? Free trade.

	29-07-2003 02:59									#123
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse If Canada couldn't export to the US we'd be ****ed too. It's nice to suggest that they export to other countries, but the transportation issues do have a great effect, you know. Otherwise we'd be exporting as much to WE as we do to the US. Which we don't by a factor of 100.

This is COMPLETELY differnt. Canada is a functional country that has stuff to freaking export. They dont rely on the 'gold' that is sugar They export a huge range of manufacured and agricultural goods to the US that cuba could not.

	29-07-2003 03:00									#124
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Was true before NAFTA, or any of that ****.

Take auto industry. Can you imagine us doing the same type of trade with Europe? Where one factory here produces some parts, gets sent to a US factory to join with other parts etc?

The transit time and the cost are both major factors. Margins are not big enough that you can laugh off a 5% increase in cost due to extra transportation cost.

	29-07-2003 03:00									#125
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quote: Originally posted by DanS But the US is 1/4 of the global economy, and is right next door. Europe is across the ocean. Latin America doesn't have any money. Yeh, this sob story is BS. "Across the ocean" is not that expensive nowadays.

Grain from New Zeland costs several times as much as American grain, but that's where Cuba must get it's grain, since not merely the US, but most of Latin America (at the US's behest), boycotts Cuba.

Three quarters of Cuba's trade came through Jacksonville, which is a very short hop from Havana (the things you learn wathing city council meetings).

	29-07-2003 03:02									#126
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quote: Originally posted by Kramerman This is COMPLETELY differnt. Canada is a functional country that has stuff to freaking export. They dont rely on the 'gold' that is sugar They export a huge range of manufacured and agricultural goods to the US that cuba could not.

Good God.

Reread it. Why do we export to you in such bulk and not to Europe? The answer is the Atlantic. Period.

It makes a huge difference in cost and time to delivery. Something like 30% of our economy is back and forth with US. With everybody else the loss in trade would be manageable.

	29-07-2003 03:03									#127
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quote: Originally posted by Kramerman This is COMPLETELY differnt. Canada is a functional country that has stuff to freaking export. They dont rely on the 'gold' that is sugar. They export a huge range of manufacured and agricultural goods to the US that cuba could not.

Cuba was never a developed country, but lke most of the Third world, was dependent on a single export. This is not the fault of communism but is endemic throughout the non-developed world. The history of Latin America is the history of mono cash cropping.

	29-07-2003 03:04									#128
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Agro products are one of the hardest things to export long distances, especially low-margin high-volume **** like grain, sugar etc.

	29-07-2003 03:06									#129
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Grain from New Zeland costs several times as much as American grain, but that's where Cuba must get it's grain, since not merely the US, but most of Latin America (at the US's behest), boycotts Cuba.

Castro can always get the grain smuggled in from his buddies in Venezuela, if he's desperate.

But I don't think he needs to. He can import directly from the US for many foodstuffs.

Last edited by DanS on 29-07-2003 at 03:17

	29-07-2003 03:14									#130
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Good God. Reread it. Why do we export to you in such bulk and not to Europe? The answer is the Atlantic. Period. It makes a huge difference in cost and time to delivery. Something like 30% of our economy is back and forth with US. With everybody else the loss in trade would be manageable.

this point is moot - Cuba has nothing of much value to export but sugar. This does not apply to canada (because yall export so much more stuff in variety and quantity), so of course you would be hurt terribly by a US embargo.

quote: Cuba was never a developed country, but lke most of the Third world, was dependent on a single export. This is not the fault of communism but is endemic throughout the non-developed world. The history of Latin America is the history of mono cash cropping.

this is partially true. but why has cuba never developed, so as to transform itself from a cash crop society?
*points to communism as major reason*
remember, America used to be a cash crop colony of England (tobacco), yet we developed pretty nicely, even while still a colony.
regardless, this serves my point against krazy that cuba's single major export isnt gonna make major transformation of cuba on its own if the US lifted the embargo. Comparing the damage an embargo would do to canada (or any toher developed/industrialized nation, for that matter) to the damage it does to cuba is rediculous

	29-07-2003 03:23									#131
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Good job KrazyHorse. I doubt if they will understand in the end though, but good luck.

	29-07-2003 03:25									#132
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You too Che

	29-07-2003 03:43									#133
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I think Castro got pass from Kennedy during Cuban missile crisis. Once he is gone, I believe Cuba will again be in play. I think that the United States will demand that Cuba institute free and fair elections to replace Castro. If the Cubans do not provide for free and fair elections, I believe we will begin supporting "Freedom Fighters" that will eventually overthrow the Communist dictatorship.

Did you guys know that the Castro régime oppresses blacks? There's nothing different between the current Communist government in this regard and all prior governments going back to Spanish colonial rule.

	29-07-2003 04:28									#134
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I doubt that Cuba's debt to Russia will ever be repaid, or that Russia will even ever reclaim that debt.

But from Iraq, $8 billion is due and payable in a due course.

	29-07-2003 04:31									#135
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Dan, do you seriously claim that the US embargo is not extremely damaging for Cuba?

	29-07-2003 04:37									#136
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quote: Originally posted by Saras Communism will fall, and Cuba will be like the Baltic states after the fall of USSR, perhaps even better, due to lifting of US embrago.

If this ever happens (and I doubt it will), this will be largely owing to Castro and communism breaking down the banana-republic mentality in Cuba.

	29-07-2003 04:40									#137
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As I recently read, there are more Cuban women involved in prostitution now than in the last days of the old regime.

	29-07-2003 05:44									#138
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quote: Originally posted by Kramerman this point is moot - Cuba has nothing of much value to export but sugar. This does not apply to canada (because yall export so much more stuff in variety and quantity), so of course you would be hurt terribly by a US embargo.

Precastro Cuba depended as much (or more) on its sugar exports to the US as we do on our multifaceted trade with the US.

quote: this is partially true. but why has cuba never developed, so as to transform itself from a cash crop society? *points to communism as major reason* remember, America used to be a cash crop colony of England (tobacco), yet we developed pretty nicely, even while still a colony.

a) it has, since 1991, taken steps to do so
b) it didn't have to do so immediately after 1961, due to Russian support (direct aid and trade)
c) Cuba needs trade. It is not large enough to be a selfcontained economy and sustain a Western level of development. Any industry it would choose to go into immediately faces a big fat embargo in the US. It is attempting to get around this and is slowly managing to grow its manufacturing industries etc. based on European, Canadian and Latin American trade. But this is a major, almost crippling competitive disadvantage when compared to other Latin American countries, who can and do trade with the US

quote: regardless, this serves my point against krazy that cuba's single major export isnt gonna make major transformation of cuba on its own if the US lifted the embargo. Comparing the damage an embargo would do to canada (or any toher developed/industrialized nation, for that matter) to the damage it does to cuba is rediculous

Two points:

1) No, exporting sugar is not the only answer Cuba needs to find, but

2) Exporting anything (which it needs to do, so that it can afford to import machinery) is very difficult when they can't trade with that 10 trillion dollar economy just north of them.

Other Latin American countries don't do particularly well themselves, and they're allowed to have that trade. But it must be fair to compare Cuba's standard of living with that of the US, and point to the difference as that made capitalism.

	29-07-2003 05:49									#139
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Dan, do you seriously claim that the US embargo is not extremely damaging for Cuba?

You act as though it is Cuba's right to have access to US markets. Considering that we don't have to trade with anybody we don't feel good and ready to trade with, I would say definitely that Cuba is forgoing substantial trade and other opportunities by its repressive system.

When Castro croaks and Cuba wants to change its system, we'll talk.

	29-07-2003 05:51									#140
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Cuba needs to import to survive. In order to do that they need to export. The US tries to make that hard for them to do that. I think they may have worked through the problem though. I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again.

	29-07-2003 05:56									#141
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In order to do that they need to export.

Not really. They can offset the imports by either tourism or foreign investment.

I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again.

Too late.

	29-07-2003 06:00									#142
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Dan, do you seriously claim that the US embargo is not extremely damaging for Cuba? You act as though it is Cuba's right to have access to US markets. Considering that we don't have to trade with anybody we don't feel good and ready to trade with, I would say definitely that Cuba is forgoing substantial trade and other opportunities by its repressive system. When Castro croaks and Cuba wants to change its system, we'll talk.

i) One word: China
ii) It's not a question of rights; it's a question of effects. The argument abour whether or not Cuba should have access is different than the one about the embargo's effect on Cuba's economy (and its overall performance)

	29-07-2003 06:00									#143
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quote: Originally posted by DanS In order to do that they need to export. Not really. They can offset the imports by either tourism or foreign investment.

Both of those are problematic for a country that is trying to achieve communist ideals.

quote: Originally posted by DanS I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again. Too late.

What do you mean?

	29-07-2003 06:02									#144
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse But the US is 1/4 of the global economy, and is right next door. Europe is across the ocean. Latin America doesn't have any money.

First Helms-Burton only deals with stolen property. I.E. assests stolen by the communist government where the owners were never compensated. It is fully justified that if a European or Canadian company would like to go to Cuba and buy this stolen property that they should be treated like a criminal who is dealing in stolen property since that is what they are doing.

Next oceans weren't a big problem when America was primarially and export economy which was isolated from major markets. Nor did Japan have much of a problem when it's only major markets were far away over seas. Modern east Asian countries do just fine sending things by ship largely because they attract alot of foreign investment and have the latest manufacturing equipment. The Cuban communist system virtually insures that Cuban industry will not have the lastest equipment and thus will not be as efficient. Also being state run they will not be as atuned to market needs and will instead be atuned to political needs.

These are the single biggest issues of why every communist country, which practiced communism (that means I'm not looking at China which is run by communists but has a mostly capitalist system) has been a complete economic failure over the long haul. Cuba is no exception.

	29-07-2003 06:03									#145
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quote: Originally posted by DanS In order to do that they need to export. Not really. They can offset the imports by either tourism or foreign investment

Tourism: check, they're doing that
Foreign Investment: they still need to sell things so that they can pay those foreign investors in foreign currency.

	29-07-2003 06:08									#146
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quote: Originally posted by The Vagabond As I recently read, there are more Cuban women involved in prostitution now than in the last days of the old regime.

I've heard this was true as well. the economy is so bad many women are prostituting their bodies to foreign tourists just to eat.

	29-07-2003 06:09									#147
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Both of those are problematic for a country that is trying to achieve communist ideals.

Fvck communist ideals!

What do you mean?

Stamping out the dollar at this point would require drastic measures.

i) One word: China

China is on a long-term process of opening up its economy. China is no longer attempting to achieve communist ideals (see fvck communist ideals, above).

ii) It's not a question of rights; it's a question of effects.

OK, then yes I agree that Cuba is forgoing substantial opportunities in the US market by choosing this particular form of repressive government.

	29-07-2003 06:10									#148
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious I think they may have worked through the problem though. I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again.

That would be impossible. I've read that 20%(!!!!!) of the Cuban economy comes from money which emigres send back to their families. That just shows you how dependent these guys are on dollars.

	29-07-2003 06:12									#149
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Stamping out the dollar at this point would require drastic measures.

All you have to do is turn back the reforms.

	29-07-2003 06:14									#150
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin That would be impossible. I've read that 20%(!!!!!) of the Cuban economy comes from money which emigres send back to their families. That just shows you how dependent these guys are on dollars.

The only reason they need the dollars is too buy food and oil. They were able to keep the dollar illegal before the collapse of the USSR. Now they have maybe ajusted to there new situation. It is possible.