01-09-2004 20:23									#91
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There's a big problem with that tactic being employed in the theatre situation. Since the troops only stormed in on the fourth, IIRC, day of the standoff, and people have only had water all that time, the gas killed many hostages. The gas that was used normally incapacitates people for a period of time, but in combination with the prolonged hunger, it killed.

Also, the "release them and we give you food" can't work. Their demands will be more like "get us food or we kill a hostage each five minutes".

	01-09-2004 20:26									#92
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quote: Originally posted by pchang There appear to be 2 types of terrorists in the world: 1) Those who want their own sovereign state. 2) Those who want to impose their view/religion/leadership on the rest of the world. In many cases, the type 1 terrorists are really just type 2 terrorists starting with their first demand. It may be possible to negotiate with the type 1 terrorists if one is willing to hand over the fate of the people who will be incorporated into their sovereign state to those terrorists. Such a thing is easier to do the farther away one is from those terrorists. For type 2 terrorists, there are only 3 choices: 1) Die. 2) Convert to follow them. 3) Kill them before they kill us.

Chechnya had full autonomy after the first Chechen rebellion. Islamist extremists than attacked Dagestan, a heavily muslim area of Russia that was content with the political status quo.

Im not sure that the distinction among groups is as clear as you make it out. First AQs own goals are somewhat fuzzier than a global Islamic state - their explicit call is only for an Islamic state in Islamic lands (though this includes BOTH predominantly muslim areas in non-muslim states like the southern Phillipines and Chechnya - AND non-muslim areas in muslim states - like the southern sudan and Bali - and ALSO includes India and Israel) they seem to expect Islam to spread beyond that by conversion, etc. Second many of those aiming for "soverienty" also want a local taliban state - look at what Hamas was doing to secular Palestinians in Gaza toward the end of the first Intifada, or the state of human rights in insurgent occupied Fallujah in Iraq, etc

	01-09-2004 20:26									#93
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Didn't the chechens try this some years back. Taking a school I mean.. What did the Russians do about it then.

	01-09-2004 20:26									#94
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Then, sadly, the only solution is to deny them their demands, and re-phrase it.

The hard-line is the only way to go. It sucks, I know, but to do less is to legitimize their actions.

If they hit me with that, I'd hit back with...nope. You release half the kids, and we'll get some food in there. We hear so much as a single gunshot, and you'll get to visit Allah up close and personal a whole lot sooner than you planned on.

Terracts.

-=Vel=-

	01-09-2004 20:29									#95
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quote: Originally posted by Solver There is nothing wrong with Islam per se, and these terrorists do not represent the billion of Muslims in the world. To back that up immediately, one of the high-ranking Muslim clerics in North Osetia made an offer to exchange himself for hostages. That is noble action deserving respect.

they dont represent Islam per se, but they do represent a significant minority that will oppose ANY military actions against said terrorists. For example there are Chechen terrorists in Pakistan, notably in the NWFP. The MMA, which got about 20% of the vote in Pakistan, and the majority in the NWFP, opposes govt military actions in the NWFP.

It may not be 2 billion muslims, but its a far bigger problem than a handful of terrorists.

	01-09-2004 20:30									#96
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quote: Originally posted by Sprayber Didn't the chechens try this some years back. Taking a school I mean.. What did the Russians do about it then.

Hospital I think it was, don't know the details exactly anymore i'll try and find them.

	01-09-2004 20:32									#97
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Hmm not Ideal but:

http://www.cbc.ca/passionateeye/ter...cow/terror.html

quote: June 14, 1995: Chechen gunmen took 1,600 hostages at hospital in southern Russian town of Budyonnovsk, near Chechnya. In the week long siege at least 120 people die during bungled Russian assaults. The hostages are freed as the fighters return to Chechnya using 150 people as human shields. Jan 9, 1996: Chechen militants seized 2,000 hostages at hospital in southern Russian town of Kizlyar. Rebels released most, then headed for Chechnya with about 100 hostages. They are trapped in the village of Pervomaiskoye and attacked by Russian troops. At least 78 die in week-long fight.

	01-09-2004 20:35									#98
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quote: Originally posted by lightblue Hmm not Ideal but: http://www.cbc.ca/passionateeye/ter...cow/terror.html

Thanks for the rundown

Guess the Russians are gonna have to start stationing troops at hospitals and schools.

	01-09-2004 20:35									#99
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1) Over fly the place with helicopters constantly so they get used to the sound.
2) Station as many visible shooters around the school as possible to convince the terrorists to place as many kids as possible in front of windows and doors.
3) Have helicopters drop concrete barriers (like the ones we use on highway dividers) through the roof of the school about 2 meters behind the windows and doors. Hopefully, these barriers will drop between the terrorists and the kids and shield the kids from the ensuing explosions.
4) Have helicopters drop some big "flash bang" bombs into the iterior sections of the school at the same time.
5) Charge the school/drop commandos in from the helicopters immediately after the "flash bangs" go off.

	01-09-2004 20:36									#100
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Send in Stephen Segal.

	01-09-2004 20:38									#101
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What about a big concussive blast?

I mean REALLYFRIGGINBIG?

Big enough to bust eardrums and stun.

Better to have hundreds of living kidderos with hearing troubles than hundreds of dead ones.

Stun the crap out of them, walk in, get kids out, close the door, and make d@mn sure that THESE Chechens don't ever try it again.

-=Vel=-

	01-09-2004 20:38									#102
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He is a big jerk. I wouldn't mind seeing something bad happen to him.

this was about Steven Segal

	01-09-2004 20:40									#103
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quote: Originally posted by pchang There appear to be 2 types of terrorists in the world: 1) Those who want their own sovereign state. 2) Those who want to impose their view/religion/leadership on the rest of the world.

I hate having to defend terrorist, but there is only one type. That is 1.

	01-09-2004 20:40									#104
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quote: Originally posted by Smiley I'm sorry if I sound harsh, but my sympathy for Islam has run out.

I've made this same trip. The only thing to do now is to ally closely the Asian civilization w/ ours (Western). Asia must know that Islam will not live peacefully with them either.

If the Islamist world truely is being bullied by a radical branch, then they should welcome our assistance. If not, then they are complicit in their (radical) deeds. Complete containment (subjugation) of Islam may be the only option.

I think when France finally comes to terms w/ this, we can roll unfettered.

	01-09-2004 20:41									#105
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Apparently, I Vel agrees with steps 4 and 5 of my plan.

	01-09-2004 20:41									#106
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quote: Originally posted by pchang 1) Over fly the place with helicopters constantly so they get used to the sound. 2) Station as many visible shooters around the school as possible to convince the terrorists to place as many kids as possible in front of windows and doors. 3) Have helicopters drop concrete barriers (like the ones we use on highway dividers) through the roof of the school about 2 meters behind the windows and doors. Hopefully, these barriers will drop between the terrorists and the kids and shield the kids from the ensuing explosions. 4) Have helicopters drop some big "flash bang" bombs into the iterior sections of the school at the same time. 5) Charge the school/drop commandos in from the helicopters immediately after the "flash bangs" go off.

Yeah sure. At a guess that would result in at least 50% and probably more like 75% of the hostages dying. There is not much the Russians can do i think. A school is far more ventilated by non circulated air than the theatre so the gas option is far less likely to be used succesfully.

I think what will happen is similar to what happened in the hospital sieges. In return for the release of a vast majority of the hostages the hostage takers will be granted safe passage back to Chechnya. They will human shields to protect them during the way back, and these hostages are probably likely to die, but if there are 17 hostage takers (or however many there are) they won't be able to control much more than 50 people. So the fatality rate will be more like 20%.

Then Putin can launch some retaliatory attacks on the hostage takers vilalges/towns. Doubt anyone would stop him.

	01-09-2004 20:44									#107
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from RIA Novosti:

quote: Below, the general director of the National Anti-Criminal and Anti-Terrorist Foundation, Oleg Nechiporenko, comments on these tragic events: "In essence, this confirms what we have long been telling the world: the separatists in the Caucasus, in particular, the Chechen Republic, maintain links with international terrorists. According to the Regional Headquarters for the Counter-Terrorist Operation in the North Caucasus, bandit groups led by Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev include foreign mercenaries who fought in Osama bin Laden's units in Afghanistan. "According to notes found on the body of the warlord Oybek 'Uzbek' Rakhimov, his own band, which was subordinated to Maskhadov, at one point included the Egyptians Mohammed Islambuli and Mustafa Hamza. They were both from the inner circle of Ayman al-Zawahiri, an aide to Osama bin Laden and an al-Qaeda leader. Uzbek had been in charge of distributing money among the militants, and Islambuli and Hamza's financial accounts were found on him among other documents. This means that Chechen fighters are also sponsored by international Islamic extremist organisations. "According to an authoritative anti-terrorism expert and the director of London's Al- Makrizi Islamic centre, Akhmed Al-Subaimi, the Islambuli Brigades, the group that has claimed responsibility for the crashes of the Tu-134 and Tu-154 airliners and for the explosion outside Rizhskaya metro station in Moscow, is apparently a Chechen militant organisation with links to al-Qaeda. The group's name emerged after an assassination attempt on Shaukat Aziz, a candidate for the post of Pakistan's prime minister. "The terrorists took the name for their organization from Haled Islambuli, a lieutenant in the Egyptian army who organised the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat on October 6, 1981. He and his accomplices were convicted by an Egyptian court and executed. "Various extremist organisations - in Chechnya, the Balkans and Southeast Asia - have taken on the name Islambuli. They often changed their names to throw security services off their trail. Some experts say that Haled's brother Mohammed is in charge of the Islambuli Brigades. "Following the arrest and execution of Islambuli and his fellow conspirators, Egypt adopted Law No. 162 on the state of emergency in the country, which remains in force to this day. It has enabled the state to arrest and convict hundreds of extremists and ban various illegal religious organisations. The country's experience has proved that such measures are effective: Egypt has not fallen victim to any major terrorist attacks in the past seven years."

	01-09-2004 20:44									#108
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I think when it comes right down to it, it's gonna have to play out very similarly to what you describe, yes.

Psyops should start now, if it's not already, making noise, keeping them awake, flying low overhead...the works.

Full treatment.

And then wait.

Maybe they're real zealots and will go ahead and push the button. Doubt it, but maybe.

If they don't, then after a time, demands will start coming out. Those demands can be used to negotiate at least a partial release, and when it becomes obvious that they've given as much as they're gonna....game time.

-=Vel=-
EDIT: And no terrorist makes it out alive. These, we can ship back to their enlightened leaders in small boxes.

	01-09-2004 20:55									#109
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Ahh yes these two hospital incidents. Russian performance was pretty poor there. Terrorists retreated themselves eventually, and the casualties were high.

	01-09-2004 20:56									#110
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quote: If they don't, then after a time, demands will start coming out. Those demands can be used to negotiate at least a partial release, and when it becomes obvious that they've given as much as they're gonna....game time.

In this case, luckily at least some demands can be satisfied.


Out of curiosity, would you support a deal where they release all hostages, and are granted safe transport to whereever they want?

	01-09-2004 20:58									#111
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I would, but I'd also hire some thugs to make sure they never arrived. That way, it's not the army that did them, and I could deny official responsibility...

-=Vel=-

	01-09-2004 21:00									#112
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To clarify that position: At this point, if I was in charge, then in my mind, they're already dead...it is just a question of how many kids can be saved before I ended them.

That's about the extent of my negotiation interests. Save as many kids as possible, and send an unmistakable message to their "enlightened and civilized" leaders.

-=Vel=-

	01-09-2004 21:01									#113
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Ahh but that's a hard one. If you release them and promise safe transport, I'd say you need to do it really. Letting them go only to shoot them will make matters worse in the future.

What amazed me... reports say that this group of men, 15-20 people, was running to the school with automatic rifles, grenade launchers and other weaponry. How the hell could they get so far with such weapons? Damn it...

	01-09-2004 21:02									#114
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Ah, but if this becomes general practise, what is to stop hostage takers from just killing all their hostages (though they wouldn't really be hostages then i guess).

	01-09-2004 21:05									#115
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I disagree, S-man.

They kidnapped a bunch of kids. You don't GET more wormlike than that. These guys aren't dealing honestly and fairly, and can't very well cry foul if somebody double-crosses them. Maybe they'll think a bit harder next time, when none of their boys makes it home.

-=Vel=-

	01-09-2004 21:06									#116
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Kidnappng adults is one thing. Kidnapping children is another.

	01-09-2004 21:09									#117
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Do not care about the life of their foot soldiers. They have done everything in their power to convince their own foot soldiers that they are expendable so they will go on suicide missions like this (and suicide bombers).

One has to be able to identify what terrorist leaders do care about. Go directly against their friends and family, and I believe you will see some positive results. Those that harbor them will no longer do so and may even hand them over.

	01-09-2004 21:12									#118
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I don't think they expect any of their guys to make it home. Remember these are people that routinely use suicide bombers. This whole "martyr-in-paradise" stuff means they don't mind dying.

And because Islam is a decentralised religion, even if one iman says that suicide bombers will not go to paradise but will rot in hell, another wanting to push his agenda will give his blessings to them.

There's jsut not much you can threaten delusional religious people with if they fixed on the idea that they will be rewarded for eternity.

	01-09-2004 21:17									#119
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The point is tho, it doesn't matter what they believe.

If they aren't total zealots, then they won't wanna die, and they'll deal...if they are zealots, then they're gonna die anyway, and we'll get as many kids out of their hands before they do.

Maybe their leaders won't flinch at the loss, and maybe they will, but one things sure, THOSE particular guys won't be kidnapping any more kids.

-=Vel=-

	01-09-2004 21:19									#120
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Given what happened at the Theater last year, I would be very surprised if they do not have gas masks. However, if they do not, that still seems to be the best option.

It is interesting, if you recall, that even as the gas was overtaking them, the women terrorists did not detonate themselves. Interesting.

For the future, we ought to offer our support of Russia in any way we can.