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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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No, no hill... and you're right, it's cities that get the 50%, not towns.
AFAIK, defensive bombardment only hit when you're not 1/4. Otherwise, it just waits. We don't know yet if we took the hits for GoW or not (I surely hope we took the hits), so that is going to make a difference.
But otherwise... Lego only has 8 4/4 infs left, and no 3/4 infs. With your 17 hp lost from bombardment, there won't be a single 3/4 inf... all would be 2/4.
Further, I'm not sure how you calculate the tanks. These have already been promoted... they would be best left for the 1 and 2 hp attackers. the 2/4 infs have to be taken by the best unit available, meaning the marines (I think. tanks might do a good job in case they retreat)
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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okay, plucked from the CFC thread Krill was so kind to provide:
Expose Enemy Spy
Same probabilities as above, except you always fail if the enemy does not have a spy.
Initiate Propaganda
You will never get caught
The chance of persuading each citizen are:
spy + government + culture - 5 * units - improvment - capital
Where:
spy - 10 for veteran spies, 0 for regular
improvment - 20 if the city has courthouse, 0 otherwise
capital - 40 for the capital, 0 otherwise
units - number of units in garison
gov modifier is 0 in our case
culture I'm not sure... I think we're unimpressed, but I haven't checked this in game.
Culture factors
Disdainful 3
Dismissive 5
Unimpressed 10
Impressed by 20
Admires of 25
In awe of 30
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that gives a chance of 0 + 0 + 10 -5*29 - 0 - 0 = -135% of succeeding in turning Stanwix.
So, not possible.
Oh, and NI is safe as well, it has some 80 units in it, so a -400% chance of succeeding to turn 1 citizen (and you need 2).
Nice idea, though!
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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quote:
Originally posted by vulture
Promotions of units to elite (and generation of leaders) are all handled by the stack combat generator. |
well, can you specify that certain units are not promotable? All those elites, stay elite. If they generate leaders or not is not important, they have to be destroyed.
Also, what bout defensive bombardment? Does anyone have an idea on whether to take into account 11, or 27 arts? It makes a big difference: nearly all our wins last turn against Stanwix, were after bombardment failed.
quote:
Lego, incidentally, is very likely to get a leader next turn defending for Stanwix, if they haven't done so already this turn. |
If you mean with our attack: no they haven't received one. no elite battles, and only one promotion.
DeepO
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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:17
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quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
well, can you specify that certain units are not promotable? All those elites, stay elite. If they generate leaders or not is not important, they have to be destroyed.
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Each unit in the calculation has an experience level as well as a no. of hps, so it is known whether it is veteran, elite, elite*. Elites can be promoted to elite*, but gain no hp from it. There was a bug in earler versions where I forgot to specify that elite*s couldn't get promoted, which lead to bizarre results occasionally when one unit got promoted and started receiving random numbers of hitpoints per turn...
quote:
Also, what bout defensive bombardment? Does anyone have an idea on whether to take into account 11, or 27 arts? It makes a big difference: nearly all our wins last turn against Stanwix, were after bombardment failed.
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I've assumed 11, but I've not tested whether that is right or not. But since we know that units can bombard and defensive bombard on the same turn (and bombard twice if they change hands, as I'm sure we all remember  ) then I wouldn't rule it out.
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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okay, let's get some kind of attack plan going for GoW, to get those odds better. It's obvious that they will have to continue, until there are more defenders left than possible attacks. But before that time, let's maximize their chances.
recap:
GoW's troops:
- 26 marines
- 2 reg marines
- 1 3/5 marine
- 26 artillery (shouldn't that be 27?)
- 1 settler
- 2 1/4 tank
- 2 2/4 tank
- 1 3/4 tank
- 17 2/4 inf
- 1 2/5 inf
- 1 1/4 inf
Lego's troops:
- 4 2/5 T
- 2 3/5 T
- 3 4/5 T
- 1 3/4 T
- 2 1/4 T
- 29 art (possibly 16 of which have already fired)
- 3 Cav
- 2 1/4 Inf
- 3 2/4 Inf
- 1 2/5 Inf
- 7 4/4 Inf
- 1 4/5 Inf
if we anticipate 17 hp off the inf with the bombing, we should get to:
(ordered in which they will defend)
we want to keep vet units from getting a promotion. So, elite units shuld be attacked with those units that have the biggest chance of getting killed. Those 4/5 tanks better be attacked with 1/4 infs and 2/4 infs. 1/4 first, 2 1/4 infs should get 1hp of a tank. a 2/4 inf should get another hp off a tank.
So, with 2 1/4 I, and 1 2/4 I spent, you get to:
- 1 3/4 T
- 5 3/5 T
- 10 2/4 Inf
- 2 2/5 Inf
- 4 2/5 T
- 3 Cav
- 2 1/4 Inf
- 2 1/4 T
Next, the 3/4 T. Best unit here, would be a vet marine. it should knock 2 hp off (conservative estimate).
Next, 5 3/5 T need 5 2/4 inf to knock 1 hp off.
After 2 1/4 I, 6 2/4 I, 1 M, we get to
- 10 2/4 Inf
- 2 2/5 Inf
- 9 2/5 T
- 3 Cav
- 2 1/4 Inf
- 3 1/4 T
for the 2/4 infs, we need marines. 10 marines --> 10 hp (actually, 30% of the 2/4 I should be destroyed, while another 30% or so is undamaged. Precise calculations should be better here).
the 2/5 I can be attacked by 2/4 I. 2 2/4 I shuld bring them 2 hp down.
After 2 1/4 I, 8 2/4 I, 11 M, we get to
- 9 2/5 T
- 3 Cav
- 12 1/4 Inf
- 2 1/5 inf
- 3 1/4 T
9 2/4 I attack the 2/5 T. 9 hp off.
The cavs... I don't know. Attack them with marines? 3 M destroy 3 cav.
after 2 1/4 I, 17 2/4 I, 14 M, Lego is reduced to:
- 12 1/4 Inf
- 2 1/5 inf
- 3 1/4 T
- 9 1/5 T
GoW still has:
- 12 M
- 2 reg M
- 1 3/5 M
- 2 1/4 tank
- 2 2/4 tank
- 1 3/4 tank
- 1 2/5 inf
You're right, this is getting awfully close. 12 M take out 12 1/4 I. 2 reg M take out 2 1/5 I. 1 3/5 M should take out 1 1/4 T.
Leaves:
Lego:
- 2 1/4 T
- 9 1/5 T
GoW:
- 2 1/4 tank
- 2 2/4 tank
- 1 3/4 tank
- 1 2/5 inf
This won't work, they can't reach it. This is only average, but results could be worse or better
Hmmm... I'll try again. What went wrong here, where is the waste?
DeepO
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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:17
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If we need a good name for the maneouver, how about "operation cross dresser", given the importance of the trannies involved (or were they secretely DDs dressed up as transports), it seems appropriate.
DeepO: Yup, at the first look, average luck isn't quite going to cut it.
Might it be worth saving the bombers for attacking tanks as and when they are exposed. With 8 attack, they aren't that great odds vs the infantry, but can do more damage vs the tanks (defence 8.8). That might increase the no. of hps damage done by bombers, although to tanks rather than infantry. Not sure if that would make a difference, but if the problem is being 3 or 4 attackers short, you never know.
Any chance we could persuade Vox to switch sides and do a little bit of damage 
GoW might just have to for it and hope for a bit of good luck.
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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quote:
Originally posted by vulture
If we need a good name for the maneouver, how about "operation cross dresser", given the importance of the trannies involved (or were they secretely DDs dressed up as transports), it seems appropriate. |
I like that a lot! 
quote:
Might it be worth saving the bombers for attacking tanks as and when they are exposed. With 8 attack, they aren't that great odds vs the infantry, but can do more damage vs the tanks (defence 8.8). That might increase the no. of hps damage done by bombers, although to tanks rather than infantry. Not sure if that would make a difference, but if the problem is being 3 or 4 attackers short, you never know. |
Doesn't that gets down to same problem? We have less hps on the tanks, but more on the infs. And as these are harder, we end up losing more units on them again.
I'm thinking on tanks, and retreating. And also on how we can maximize the hp we've got on those marines. All the marines can be lost, if every single hp was used to its fullest extent, meanwhile trying to keep the chances of promotions down.
DeepO
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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:17
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Another thought:
if GoW fail to break through, but only one or two units are left, should they then try for propaganda? Even if its only a 5-10% chance, (assuming they get a spy in succesfully) it's worth a go, given whats at stake. Basically they have a chance with either 1 or 1-3 units left, depending on their culture (I'm assuming that they're either impressed or unimpressed with Lego's culture, which translates to unimpressed or impressed for Lego's view of GoW's culture, which is what counts). I'm also assuming that for a city of size 1, the chance to get the city is the chance of converting a single citizen, which makes sense but might not be the actual game mechanic.
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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quote:
Originally posted by Cort Haus
Given the probability that GoW won't break through, Lego would presumably first destroy the remains of the coalition in the north, then hit us in the south with everything that's left. Would that be much? |
In the South, we're relatively safe. In case they have some cities left, we'll be safer... as that way, they won't put all their infs into attacking us. I tried to make it so that 16 tanks could not break through, not at the radar tower, nor the grass which we need to road, nor NI (NI is safe in any case, with the current numbers Lego can't break through)
But it's difficult to predict what they will do. In case GoW can't break through, I guess Lego will clean up. We got some 17 tanks out in the open, unprotected (6 from the cities, 11 left over after the attack if I got the numbers right). These are easy prey... but will also leave Lego open for counterattack. All those workers divided around the place are actually quite cool: if GoW does not destroy all those cities, Lego is not going to bother wasting units on that bate, unless they can retreat their units into cities.
Whatever happens next, Lego is going to have a very difficult time defending. They have fallen for the doughnut attack, we can reach nearly all their cities now.
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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quote:
Originally posted by vulture
Another thought:
if GoW fail to break through, but only one or two units are left, should they then try for propaganda? Even if its only a 5-10% chance, (assuming they get a spy in succesfully) it's worth a go, given whats at stake. Basically they have a chance with either 1 or 1-3 units left, depending on their culture (I'm assuming that they're either impressed or unimpressed with Lego's culture, which translates to unimpressed or impressed for Lego's view of GoW's culture, which is what counts). I'm also assuming that for a city of size 1, the chance to get the city is the chance of converting a single citizen, which makes sense but might not be the actual game mechanic. |
Good thinking, this might work. The cost isn't going to be extremely high.
However, GoW has commented on numeruous occasions that they don't have a spy, as otherwise ND wouldn't be investigating for them. I don't know if they have the CIA built.
DeepO
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:17
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Defensive bombardment can be somewhat nullified by attacking with units which have less attack power. Losing an Infantry HP is going to hurt much less than losing a Tank HP. Also defensive bombardment can't do anything against a 1 HP unit. GoW should try to take all defensive bombardments possible with their Infantry I think.
As DeepO says, best targets for the Infantry are the Elites. I'd include all Tanks too. A 2 HP Infantry should lose to the Tank, but Lego doesn't get a promotion generally unless the next unit that attacks the Tank loses too. So a 2 HP Infantry can almost be viewed as bombardment if the damaged units are finished off with Marines or Tanks.
Tanks have Blitz, so they should be saved for 1 and 2 HP Infantry, which they can often kill 2 of even at low HPs themselves.
I think using some basic rules for when to attack with what, GoW can still have better than even odds to take the city. I just ran through a scenario twice with preserve random seed off. Once with 26 Artillery, once with 17. As I'm using C3C the Artillery target the units first.
The scenario is using very close to the same number of units (no 1/4 units, just Conscripts instead of 2/X or 1/X HP units, Regulars instead of 3/X HP units, Veterans instead of 4/5 HP units. Lego benefits from this because they get better promotion odds, which then count towards later battles, while GoW's promotions don't help at all except with the Tanks.
The first time I got through with 12 Marines, 9 Infantry, and 1 Tank left available to attack. Second time I got through with 8 Marines, 1 Infantry left available to attack.
I'll run it some more with 17 bombardments.
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10-12-2004 18:45
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