 |
| |
|
|
rjmatsleepers
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Straybow
quote:
(you could do that by calculating the Net Present Value of the flow of gold you will receive during the following years, but I don't think it's worth the effort) |
Inflation is zero and there is no borrowed money with interest charges, so the calc is simple. You can do a ROI study which becomes simple to the point of trivial:
Payback period = (Cost-(delivery×2)) / (continuing trade)
For Cost < delivery×2 period = 1
* Straybow looks for a smilie with a professor's cap and pointer |
I don't find this very convincing you seem to be saying either that the cost of capital is zero or that it is infinite. The implication of the first is that one unit of gold in (say) 100 turns time is worth the same as one unit now. The implication of the second is that a unit of gold in one turn is worth nothing compared with that unit of gold now. Neither of these seem to be right. The future flow of trade arrows from a trade route has some value, but it would be more valuable to have them as a large lump sum now than as a flow continuing for many turns.
I agree that there is no formal borrowing with interest charges, but you can sell one of your white goods and then rebuild it which provides a pseudo borrowing with a cost associated.
Similarly you can "invest" your gold in white goods, caravans or wonders in order to get a future return.
This suggests to me that there is a finite, but non-zero cost of capital for the net present value calculation. (But I have no idea how to calculate it, or even give it any bounds other than zero and infinity.)
RJM at Sleepers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
La Fayette
|
|
albi, france
Oct 2000
time: 06:27
|
|
I started a thread describing and discussing that kind of calculations about 2 years ago, but Apolyton's search engine seems to be on strike.
I'll give a link ASAP.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
La Fayette
|
|
albi, france
Oct 2000
time: 06:27
|
|
No sorry,
The 'search' engine is on strike as far as I am concerned
(but Oldn Slow has just given the basic idea behind my calculations: time value of money = 1 gold next turn is worth slightly less than 1 gold now)
|
|
| |
|
|
|
rjmatsleepers
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by La Fayette
Oldn Slow has just given the basic idea behind my calculations: time value of money = 1 gold next turn is worth slightly less than 1 gold now |
The crucial question is how much less than the value of 1 gold now is the value of 1 gold in a turn's time.
To give a practical example:
assume you can deliver a caravan this turn and get 100 gold (plus 100 arrows) for it;
alternatively you can move on and deliver the caravan to a different city next turn;
how big does the payment for delivery to the second city have to be for you to choose to wait?
101 gold? 120 gold? 250 gold?
The values have been choosen to reflect my (subjective) valuation in an early game. I'd never bother waiting for 1 extra gold; I'd always wait if it gave me an extra 150 gold; and I don't know what I'd do if the delivery bonus gave me an extra 20 gold. Presumably therefore my subjective discount rate is about 20%. But is there any rational basis for this?
RJM at Sleepers
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
Straybow
|
 |
SG(2)… gone but not forgotten
Jan 1970
time: 23:27
|
|
* Straybow Looks around; wonders why he signed up for this silly game
1784 (end of turn tweaking)  We are a Democracy Republic and should be celebrating! But if I start now, I have to revolt at the end of '86 and it won't do any good. Unless…
1786  French build Leo's. So do we save up Food for SoL, or for some future wonder?
We discover Mysticism, now must research Astro. Silly citizens in 3 more cities rejoice! Disband one clunky Trireme for shields in Verdun. Load one Caravel w/Beads and await a Dip to hunt more neighbors. What else are Beads good for?
* Straybow forms a desperate coalition in Congress and refuses to let the barbarian Despots in!
 Democratic reformers confused by Straybow's confusion. (At least we avoided a turn of anarchy.)
1788 Silly citizens in 3 cities start "doin' what comes naturally!" More cities get the idea of how silly celebrating can be!
1790 Americans in 6 cities breed like silly fools! Joanie establishes Froggie Democracy.
1792 Soon it will be time to build Aquaducts! Gold Caravan searches for Rouen 
1794  Beeble Gems to Avignon 390 (+6). Adv Tribe Sticky Moose finds joining our silliness irresistable! Despots trick the new Sticky Moose Representatives; Straybow's coalition no longer in majority.
1796 Despot Party turns the economy into rancid Yorkshire pudding with their Kickbacks for Kronies program. Citizens murmur, martial law declared to control disorder. Four entertainers recruited by the Dept of Silliness form the group *N-Beat. Parents soon too busy saving up for overpriced tickets to complain about the economy. Second clunky Trireme disbanded for shields at Verdun. Rouen spotted, directly in legal move path. (Only changed end of turn by re-revolting and going Dem)
 Democratic reformers suddenly oust the Despots after several months of suffering. Silly citizens are greatly relieved, and the members of *N-Beat go back to delivering pizzas. New entertainers are recruited by the USO to quell the unhappiness caused by our ships out exploring and delivering cargos.
1798 We discover Astronomy, move on to Philosophy. Bozo Mkt (rushed last turn). Monty Gold to Rouen 204 258 gold (thanks to Dem trade arrows). Monty trade route lets me drop an Elvis at 40% keeping Lux at 30%. Send Wizard back to the farm at Goodie (never needed the specialist; food+trade arrows from sea better IMO).
1800 Wabbit Hides to Rheims 78 122. Landed just to snoop around, might as well get it over with.
Nevermind… Now that we're in Despotism and due to move to Monarchy could've kept that second Trireme since it would no longer cause unhappiness or cost a shield to support. But I already had in mind to scrap it.
Goodie's new caravel is wandering towards Leiden to pick up the 'van (rushed this turn). Can move straight to Leiden, pick up 'van, move straight to Beeble same turn.
Monty needs a Temple soon—or perhaps a Colosseum, which would be more effective and we can afford it. Lone settler has one charge, I was thinking of roading the forest before going up to Monty (by ship since it can't legally move there?) for sacrifice  .
Did not rush 'van at Silly Walks because it might be better to lose a few shields and build a Settler. We've got Specials to mine and grass to irrigate and sacrifices to be made to the gods . Should be possible to celebrate back up to 7 immediately, and at least one Colosseum and Aquaduct should be built for our SSC (such as it is), Beeblebrox.
 Attachment: so1800dem.sav
This has been downloaded 2 time(s).
|
|
| |
|
|
|
La Fayette
|
|
albi, france
Oct 2000
time: 06:27
|
|
At least, the archer is not lazy.
I think he ruled pretty well too.
(BTW I never heard of *N-Beat previously, but I suppose they play no archers' music)
|
|
| |
|
|
|
La Fayette
|
|
albi, france
Oct 2000
time: 06:27
|
|
I have found my old thread about making use of discounted cash-flow and given it a bump.
The name is 'True value of early trade...' and you find it on top of the strategy forum.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
-Jrabbit
|
 |
of the Electronic Egyptians
Feb 2002
time: 23:27
|
|
The year is 1800 and the Silly Democracy of Rabbit Soupy is Weak. Only 10 cities  albeit with a Spotless reputation. Our 30-40-30 resource allocation produces a new tech every 6 turns and provides +74 GP/turn. 
We are about to finish developing our Silly Philosphy, which will be only the 8th of 32 techs beginning with a letter from the 2nd half of the alphabet. 
We seem to be at Peace with the French, despite the fact that they have appropriated the city  of Old Chuckles from us. B*stard Frogs...
We seem to be on a camel-breeding program. A few minor adjustments are made. After reviewing the Silly Rules and noting the next OEDO as 1804, we press ENTER
1802 -- Sioux begin Statue of Liberty (French already building it, too).
--We discover Philosophy. Our silly rules determine that I should not think, but merely select Medicine from the top of the "available tech" list. Oh well, at least Shake's will become possible.
--Silly Walks engages in silly celebration.
--REVOLUTION
1804 -- After a brief period of anarchy, Despotism reigns. Adjust sliders accordingly, to 20-60-20.
--Exploring caravel finds Zulu explorer, Spanish settler.
--A few items are rushed incrementally.
--French ironclad spotted.
--Diplomat delivered to Verdun on French continent. 
--Noting that SOL is almost certainly out of reach, we decide to prep some trade goods for delivery.
1806 -- Zulus begin SOL.
Hut = NONE nomads! 
Caravel discovers Bilbao, delivers (demanded!!) Beads for 116 GP.
Monty Python builds temple. Palace construction moved to Bozo.
1808 -- Sioux start work on Darwin's Voyage. (Hey, it sucks to be Weak!  )
--French gain metallurgy
--Our freight-laden caravels sail serenely toward French desinations.
1810 -- Diplomat does reconnaissance at Old Chuckles, which is now size 4.
--Since we can't bribe the evil French democrats and there's no Silly Rule against it, we steal Steam Engine.
-- Emperor Rabbit Soup likes this approach!
--French declare war. Can't take a joke, I guess...
--Fright Wig gems delivered to Wounded Knee = 120 GP.
--Palace construction moved to Monty Python.
--REVOLUTION
1812 -- Spanish begin Eiffel Tower. French jealous.
--French dragoon from Old Chuckles (which also contains 3 muskets) dies in attack on Verdun.
--Rabbit Soup changes hats, from Emperor to King.
--Two shipments of Beads reach Chartres, paying 134 and 114 GP, respectively.
1814 -- We decide to dig in. Barracks rushed and Dragoon delivered from home island to Verdun.
--Zulus complete Statue Of Liberty.
--French switch to Eiffel Tower -- and complete it! All others abandon WoWs.
--We discover Medicine and are thrilled to select Monotheism next!
--Demanded Hides to Sticky Moose net 24 GP. 
--More Chartres deliveries by caravel. Hides from Leiden = 104, wool from Fright Wig = 112.
1816 -- French unveil the first working Railroad.
--Wabbit falls into disorder.
--Caravel finds long-rumored city of Ngome (10).
--King Rabbit Soup ponders relative need for tech theft (dips) vs. camels. Decides to go for 10 turns to further clarify a few things.
1818 -- When in doubt, build more camels.
--French learn Conscription (successor note -- iirc they just auto-upgraded all their musket defenses).
--Our population reaches 2.00 MM ppl. In 1818. (sigh) this is just Silly!
--Our naval fleet attempts to be purposeful in its mmovements.
--We deliberately violate a Silly Rule with  NO REVOLUTION.
1820 -- Sliders moved to 20-60-20.
--Shipment of Hides heads toward Bilbao by caravel.
--Military caravel (settler/diplo/dragoon) heads toward juicy open land west of Old Chuckles. Possible stop for tech theft @ Old Chuckles en route.  
--Coal caravan from Verdun progressing toward Sticky Moose.
King Rabbit Soup passes the baton to his successor. We have 2MM ppl, a tech rate of 8 turns, netting +12 GP/turn with sliders at 20-60-20. 506 GP in the bank.
Some may wonder why I chose to remain in Monarchy. We will have Monotheism very soon, and it seemed to me that acquiring Michaelangelo's Chapel was BY FAR the most important item on the 2do list. Constant government changes without a Happy WoW will be difficult at best. 
Because we have to sacrifice a settler for every camel used toward a Happy Wonder, I attempted to prepare for that eventuality. 8 camels and 8 settlers is a lot (especially with only 10 cities, 7 on the home island). With troops and ships on the loose, I was fearful of massive unrest under a representative government.
FOR MIKE'S CHAPEL
Camels -- 4 stored in Silly Walks, another heading there on foot. The 6th, 7th, and 8th are being built (Beeblebrox, Silly Walks, and Goodie).
Settlers -- See Bozo, Leiden in process. Starting 2 more (Fright Wig, Wabbit). One is mining for hidden special just SE of Fright Wig. That's 5 of 8 needed.
Or you could ignore that silly settler rule and just build the darned thing...
Last edited by -Jrabbit on 30-07-2003 at 19:42
|
|
| |
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:27.
Apolyton Time is 00:27. |
top of page
|
|
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
21-07-2003 11:45
Attachment: 
Attachment: 
)
The United States of America is a representative Republic, not a Democracy. Therefore the Republic should be ruled by President Straybow, whereas the Democracy should be ruled by Speaker Straybow.
Attachment: 
]
|
