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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:27
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This is for flat land... if GoW can land on a Hill all the better. (can't find the screenshot of GoW's side yet)
With all Tanks on Transports.
68 Artillery, 40 Infantry
Odds to hit 52.2%
Expected 35.496 Infantry hit by Artillery. 18.52 are hit for 2 HP.
4 4/4 Infantry
17 3/4 Infantry (Tanks defend first, Marines hidden)
18 2/4 Infantry (Tanks and Marines defend first)
~40 Tanks. 4 4/4 Infantry.
Odds to kill 69.6%.
5 Tanks to get around the remaining 4/4 Infantry. 1 of these Infantry will survive but probably be 2/4 or 1/4.
~35 Tanks. 17 3/4 Infantry.
Odds to kill 81%.
20 Tanks to get around the remaining 3/4 Infantry. Now the Marines would be exposed.
~15 Tanks. 40 Marines.
Odds to kill 88%.
Odds to blitz kill 61%.
15 Tanks can't kill the 40 Marines. At the very worst they can kill 30, but more likely it will be 20. Very doubtful that Lego will blitz with all their Tanks, some will be low HP after the first battle, and even if they win they leave their Tanks exposed.
13 Cavalry. 10-20 Marines.
Odds to kill 44.8%
Lego is better off seeding Tank builds for later with their Cavalry. Even if they attack and Lego was down to 10 Marines at this point, some Marines would survive. But Lego could get pretty much through the Marines.
I don't think Lego will attack with Infantry vs the 19 2/4 Infantry, but who knows. Would take them probably 30 Infantry to get through the remaining Marines and Infantry. That leaves them not a lot of defense against us. 60 Infantry, no Artillery support, and since they blitzed with their Tanks and attacked with their Cavalry, they end up with nothing else to fight us with. They'd need 15 Infantry in Tip, 15 in Quanto, leaving them only 30 in Abilene (only 10 of which would have fortification bonus), which means we take the city.
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If GoW can chain 8 more Infantry over their stack is pretty much sure to stand. If not, I think ~10 Tanks need to stay. Not so much to save the stack, but to keep Lego from attacking with Cavalry and Infantry.
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:27
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One major thing: They can land everything, or they can land all their marines and only a couple of tanks. However, they're best bet for survival is if they threaten 3 cities. They are in position to split their navy into 2 parts, and set up a chaining line to Zargonia.
Lego won't risk too much with their tanks, if they consider them necessary defenders. We've seen a couple of reg units, a reg tank is better used for defense against marines in a coastal metro, than it is used offensively against infs. (I think). We most likely will threaten 3 cities, if GoW can also set this up, Lego will spread part of that defense.
As to the arts: worst case scenario would be if Lego uses all its artillery on one side, however would they risk it? We have laid some juicy targets for them, in the form of 11 transports and a 2/4 DD. If they want to sink most of those ships, they will need art support, as otherwise they are going to lose 1/4 BBs to transports.
My guess is, that they won't use all their art on one spot. Too dangerous...
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:27
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Aeson, what I had in mind was the following: place 2 empty fleet so that the leftover attackers can be chained towards Zargonia. If there are troops that can be missed, they could leave some tanks (e.g. 8 of them) on a transport, but they should land all marines. This way, they can't lose the settler underneath their stack.
Next turn, the city is built, and 3 cities are threatened. No matter how hard Lego's attack was, some marines should survive... meaning 3 cities which need defense (the marines will of course also threaten Dye fields and Jackson, so these can't be empty either, no matter how much pillaging occured, and how many tanks were destroyed)
They could add to this, by doing the same as us: leave most of their ships within reach of arts. They should have enough ships nearby to make sure they can always chain some units around.
I'm not certain on the exact positions of GoW, though, or I could suggest some chaining positions. It won't cost them anything to keep those ships nearby.
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:27
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I'm thinking on what is going to happen once Lego plays its turn. We should assess the situation, and put some kind of mutual battle plan together before playing our turn. What we see now is that we give ideas to GoW, and they seem to take our advice to heart, however this is not ideal. In a way, we restrict GoW by the choices we make without their consent. And we depend on them as well, as we envision them doing something, and anticipate that in our movements.
For next turn, if Lego would go for GoW, it could be possible that GoW does not see any options to take a city, and is forced to withdraw. Knowing something like this is critical for what kind of defense we need to deploy. So, before we do any major, critical action, I would like to put a broad plan together, and send it to GoW. In return, I would like to ask that they analyze the Lego battle report, and give us some options on how they can proceed.
In case Lego didn't fully attack either invasion stack, this is less of a problem. In case there is focus, we should negotiate on what is going to happen before we play.
DeepO
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18-11-2004 18:37
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