02-07-2003 04:32									#121
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It is tricky wording, I grant. However, the intent is that we do not go to war with GoW by ourselves, or in combination with others where GoW is, or has been, attacked.

If they gang up with RP to attack ND, we would be allowed to intervene.

	02-07-2003 04:34									#122
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I just realised that this alone would give us no assurances in the face of a Vox breach of the peace terms.

We would add that GoW will in no way assist Vox Controli against GS. A 'just in case' clause.

	02-07-2003 05:34									#123
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Let's leave Vox outta this for a moment.

Lemme see if I understand:

We will not go to war with you alone, nor in coalition. But if you (GoW) declare war on someone else, all bets are off.

Sounds like throwing a match onto the Bobian powderkeg to me.

[I like the idea of some kinda special deal with them, and in fact with each team, but I don't get this one]

	02-07-2003 05:54									#124
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quote: Sounds like throwing a match onto the Bobian powderkeg to me.

On the contrary- we'll be acting as a balance. GoW would be able to trust us not to join against them, so they would feel safer (after all, that's what they want- safety, it seems to me they are not so keen on conquest on Bob right now) and that might deter them from "striking first" against ND, maybe, before RP joins in. I think that should ND be attacked by GoW, they'll just sit and do nothing, and let the two kill each other, perhaps dealing with the remains themselves. By joining an attack against ND, they run the risk of losing troops, as well as making it easier on GoW, who's gonna be their new and only neighbor (besides us, of course).

I think we could see some "behind-the-scene" action that would lead to a delicate balance of power, one that we might be part of (willingly or not) that would prevent war for a while...

I havn't made my mind yet regarding this kind of limited NAP- it has some problems. Picture this: GoW declares war on ND (or the other way around, it matters little), and GoW seems to be kicking their butts pretty badly- do we intervene or not?
And if we have reasons to suspect RP is funding GoW? This could mean ND will be wiped out, GoW is somewhat weakend and their forces stretched quite thin, and RP can claim Bob (eventually), while we missed our chance at striking on Bob at the right time, because we were bound not to attack GoW unless they gang up with RP (or ND) on the third Bobian.

And, even if it is 'secret' that doesn't mean they can't do something to take advantage of our obligation, by, for instance, suggesting the idea I came up with (RP funding GoW against ND, or provoking ND and then funding GoW) to RP, under the excuse of "not drawing unwanted attention" of a 2-Vs-1 war...

	02-07-2003 06:12									#125
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That's what I mean zeit... there are so many permutations and games within games, that a military agreement of ANY kind wiht any of the Bobian civs alone seems to me to be the precursor to an inevitable war.

	02-07-2003 07:30									#126
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My concern is to ensure that we are not the targets of such a war.

I was in favour of avoiding NAPs with Bob for a reason. I even think I was among the first to suggest we should avoid them, until such a time as we get an indication of which way the winds are blowing on Bob. Well, we have that indication now. No one on Bob is actively planning to attack, but they are all deathly afraid of the consequences when it comes. This is very far from an optimal situation for us. It is a powder keg. The only thing that is needed for it to go off in our faces is for some bright light on Bob to get the idea that they can all get their GAs triggered in a fairly simple crossing of the Channel; and who knows, maybe they'll get lucky and discard of those aloof and never quite understood GS fellows.

My point is that the situation is very dangerous, not just for those on Bob. It is dangerous for us as well. I think we would be very wise to secure at least one safe flank and to have at least one friend on Bob. GoW is a good candidate for that, going by geography.

We are England now, my friends. The only times England was ever in peril is when she became isolated from those on the continent through being out manuevered diplomatically, or when she lost her friends through war. We need to pick a friend. One who is in a position to harm us in the near term so as to defuse that threat, and one who is not in a position to be a longer term threat in the South. That civ is GoW.

	02-07-2003 09:23									#127
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nye, you have some Churchill in you. And, unlike the MPs in his time, I listen and agree.

(I was about to go on, but as I kept looking back at nye's post... damn, , and damn well written too. Once upon a time, someone said one of my posts was "Vel-like", and I treasured it. nye, that was as Churchillian as I could ask for, and I am just... stunned.)

(And to the rest of you, anybody who thinks I'm over-reacting, you slovens, well, flip you , I still say two to nye . Read it again.)

	02-07-2003 13:30									#128
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Thank-you very much, Theseus.

	02-07-2003 14:30									#129
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Well... if we have to pick one civ to ally on (and I agree on a safe flank), it would indeed be GoW. However, you could hardly call them ideal partners. The biggest problem is their mercenary nature, which in itself makes them untrustworthy.

But, looking at the alternatives, we have no choice if we need to protect our flank. I'm not so sure on that: we heared very little from Bob in chat the past weeks, most of it coming from GoW. They have played us before, I don't think it is so wild a guess that they are doing it again, and that in reality plans are already made. Their delaying of Chivalry was worrysome.

The thing is: we have made very clear that the reason why Vox nearly won the war was because of superb diplomatic dealing and a thick smoke curtain, deceiving us in thinking we were not the target. All Bobians know that, all Bobians must also realize that a good diplo act can make up for lack of military. So, I wouldn't trust the chats and PMs we get, these could all be well doctored, especially if they are sparse (and they are, atm).

One things that struck me in last chat was how many times MZ told nye that we were the least easy targets, that we had nothing to fear. Of course he's right (we possibly have as much units as the whole of Bob together), but why push it? If it would be part of a deal where we get wines for a NAP, I can understand why he would want to suck up to us, telling us how good we are. And he did mention that (So no 'free' NAP, let them pay!).

OTOH, Vox told us the same kind of stuff re: our economy, yet happily attacked us later. And, if GoW is already under contract, they would not be breaking their honor code if they outright lie to us.

My only fear is that if a secret deal with GoW would get spilled, it will polarize the rest of Bob. If we really want to stabilize Bob, we could declare publicly that we will not start a war against any Bobian, nor join a coalition against one. However, if a 2-1 war would break out, we could lend our assistence to the one in need. That would really make them think on delaying any agression they might feel, even if it has a slight risk of us facing a 3-1 war.

DeepO

	02-07-2003 14:35									#130
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Indeed. I agree with NYE's analysis.

If the Bobian Civs are too nervous to wage war on each other then it's only a matter of time before they realise they can get their kicks up disposing of us. 3v1 will not be any contest at all.

GoW are the most obvious candidate for a partnership.

The tricky bit comes in sorting through all the propaganda of diplomatic communications and working out exactly what is going on behind the scenes.

The wrong move here could cost us the game.

	02-07-2003 14:38									#131
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I agree with nye's point, that we need an ally on Bob, and geographically, GoW is the ideal choice. In other ways they are not, as we know they are one of the least trustworthy civs around. We know they fiddled some of the screenshots they sent us, and we know that they didn't exactly honour their contract to land 6 (or maybe it was only ever 2) units to help Vox, since they more or less warned us in advance and tried to get us to go along with faking their attack. Plus they are still mercenaries, and may take contracts that hurt us without violating a NAP style thing.

There is also the secrecy issue. As we know, individuals within teams can disagree with team policy and share information with other teams that should be kept secret. Admittedly I can't see how anyone in GoW would think that a NAP with us would be bad, but it is still possible that the info might make its way to another team. If that team is ND, it hurts us diplomatically, given that we turned them down. And RP already have a bad enough opinion of us.

Additionally, a NAP means that we don't attack GoW (duh!). But you probably don't have to look too hard to find a situation where we would want to do that to gain a significant beachhead on Bob (although once we do that it is only a matter of (short) time until we are at war with all remaining Bob civs).

I think NYE is right that no alliances on Bob are formed yet, and all three of them are primarily concerned about being the punchbag. This is an unstable situation, but also a nice cold-war type situation, especially with Riders and Ansars just around the corner. Do we want to diffuse the situation by provoking a war in some way, or try and prolong the cold war state to keep them spending too much money on armies and upkeep, and not enough on research and infrastructure for as long as possible, so that when war does come it has cost them even more? I think we gain from prolonging the peace for now - we don't want Bob to implode until Vox are gone, we have fully settled the continent, and have a good infrastructure in place, and then it'll be time for us to expand overseas (we don't need to do it while we can still expand at home).

So our aims are to avoid being invaded (GoW alliance very helpful in this regard) and to try and prolong the peace as much as possible. As long as the GoW NAP remains secret, this doesn't hurt our aims, but if word of it gets out I think we'll see RP approaching ND about an invasion of GoW. We won't see an RP-GoW alliance I think, since RP don't like us and GoW seem not to have good relations with them either (come to think of it, nor do ND or Lego...). There will be a possibility of persuading ND to join an alliance against RP, knowing that it can be a 3 on 1 war, which is a far less risky proposition that either a 2 on 1 or 2 on 2 war. It might also represent our best chance of getting a toe-hold on Bob that is (temporarily) acceptable to GoW and ND - they'd leave off trying to drive us off until RP was more or less finished, if we entered the war on their side. This is my preferred option.

Hmmm - I'm still ambivalent about a NAP with GoW. It can be good, but it could trigger war too early. Is GoW a small team? (small team means fewer people to let it slip). NYE, I think you need a little more Churchillian rhetoric to fully convince me.

EDIT: obviously the NAP needs to include clauses about GoW not taking any contracts that hurt us in any way, even if they don't involve declaring war.

	02-07-2003 14:45									#132
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quote: Originally posted by vulture EDIT: obviously the NAP needs to include clauses about GoW not taking any contracts that hurt us in any way, even if they don't involve declaring war.

I can't imagine that they'd agree to that.

Oh, and what actually happened in GoW about that public bust-up between Ghengis and Panzer? It sounded like more of the same manipulation and bluffing/roleplaying to me, but I could be wrong.

My impression is that Panzer or Unorthodox would be easier to deal with than Ghengis.

	02-07-2003 14:47									#133
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Re GoW's reliability and contracts. We know that they will break contracts, honouring the letter if not the spirit (witness their contract against us). And they are always going to put their own interests ahead of any contract. Possibly this is why the help-Vox contract wasn't honoured - they didn't want to antagonise us too much. They certainly don't want to now (could we mention that we have good relations with ND in an offhand kind of way?). So as long as their security depends on us being nice to them, they should be trustworthy (kind of). The only time they are going to attack us is if all there Bob civs have organised themselves to do so. And as I've opined previously, I think that that is an unstable alliance - there is too much profit in one civ sending a fleet of empty boats and then blitzing their neighbour while their army is elsewhere, gaining a whole load of towns that are far more usuable than towns on Stormia would be. RP would probably have most to gain from this, since they are furthest from the boatloads of returning troops (and the most exposed to treachery for the same reason, so the least likely to go along with it).

	02-07-2003 15:48									#134
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Vulture: as far as our guesswork goes, Lego ordered the contract against us, hoping that this would pressure us to end the war and accept a Voxodus. Then they cancelled the contract when we decided to accept, and so GoW withdrew.

	02-07-2003 16:20									#135
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The contract was there long before there were talks of an exodus, but we have heard from GoW that the contract involved 6 units, out of which they only sent 2, and then it was 'suprsingly' cancelled, after we told Lego that: 'foreign presence on our land would not contribute to the stability and peace-making efforts' or something of that sort. A day or so later- GoW tells us the contract was cancelled.

Too quick for Lego telling someone else to cancel it in my taste...

As for a limited-NAP, what if we secretly sign it with ND as well?

I mean, ND is certainly not a target for us- and signing with them might stabilize the ND-GoW border, while we'd be helping our relations as well, don't you think?

	02-07-2003 17:14									#136
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I'm still not sure on Lego ordering the contract, it could very well have been Vox themselves. I always suspected that since the first time they went onto the plains: they said something afterwards (when asked why they did that), that it was a case of poor timing on GoW's part. For sure, there was talk between them at that time, although it was not certain Vox was paying... but they did have the perfect thing to pay with: a city close to GoW.

If Lego ordered the contract, they did it before they started talking about Voxodus (although they asked us in the first turn of war if it would be okay for us to provide a safe haven).

But it's rather irrelevant who paid, what it does show is that GoW will be honorable, to a certain degree, in that they follow their contracts. But, if a first contract asks for a declaration of war, they don't have any problem violating a NAP, or even a (Sea)ROP with a later deal. Likewise, if a contract on our heads has already been made, they can ask for a NAP with us, and without problem violating it later once we feel secure. We should include a clause forbidding them to take any contracts on us during a possible NAP, but we can't rule out they already have a secret contract going.

DeepO

	02-07-2003 18:38									#137
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If I understand it correctly, we are discussing a possible pact with GoW that would ensure:

1) We will not start a war of aggression against them, nor them against us;

2) That both teams are free to do as they wish if the other starts a war.

So if GoW is attacked by ND+RP, we can hit RP. But if GoW + someone gang up on someone else, we reserve the right to hit GoW, yes? Or am I misunderstanding?

By the way, I think it is probably in our interests for war to break out on Bob soon, and for us to get involved. Why? Because right now we have a powerful military compared to the rest of the world. That won't last, folks.

My hope would be ND+RP versus GoW, with us invading RP. That's our ideal war scenario. The worst for us is GoW + RP eating ND. The question is how do we try to get the war we want?

-Arrian

	02-07-2003 20:53									#138
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Good news from UnO- looks like Chivalry is going to go through as planned (he didn't say anything about timing, but I figured its okay, from the tone of the message).

We'll probably have a chat in the next few days, around 10:00 GMT, is anyone able to participate at those times?
I'll be there anyway, so there shouldn't be a problem, still, I'm not too comfortable with chats...

	02-07-2003 21:09									#139
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10:00 GMT...
Any chance you could make it an hour later?
I can try to make it to 10:00 GMT (give me a wakeup call, you have my cell # ), but 11:00 GMT would be so much more convenient.

	02-07-2003 21:39									#140
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian If I understand it correctly, we are discussing a possible pact with GoW that would ensure: 1) We will not start a war of aggression against them, nor them against us; 2) That both teams are free to do as they wish if the other starts a war. So if GoW is attacked by ND+RP, we can hit RP. But if GoW + someone gang up on someone else, we reserve the right to hit GoW, yes? Or am I misunderstanding? By the way, I think it is probably in our interests for war to break out on Bob soon, and for us to get involved. Why? Because right now we have a powerful military compared to the rest of the world. That won't last, folks. My hope would be ND+RP versus GoW, with us invading RP. That's our ideal war scenario. The worst for us is GoW + RP eating ND. The question is how do we try to get the war we want? -Arrian

I agree that the ideal situation would be us and GOW vs ND and RP. Although I think us and RP vs GOW and ND would also be an attractive scenario. We take all of GOW's land while they get ND's perhaps.

So as long as point 2 above is in it looks good.

In the long term I think the best situation would be us and one bobian civ left (who we were allied with) and an agreement to hit lego together, preferably worked into the alliance at an early stage.

	05-07-2003 23:08									#141
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Okay, we have some serious stuff to discuss after this chat with GoW, seems to me that our relations have "upped" themselves by a notch or two- but this could be just an impression.

Sadly, I won't be able to handle this probably until tuesday, but it deserves serious discussion.

1) NAP or limited NAP with GoW- since we'll probably not be fighting GoW, even if its them with RP or ND against the other Bobian. We have reasons to decide against it, especially when how unfortunate it would be if the existence of such NAP is discovered.

2) Alliance against Lego- taking out those who would become the top dogs if letf alone is a worthy goal, but of course this requires alot of trust, secrecy, and risk. I personally feel like this will be a game breaker for us- making sure Lego will not be able to win.

3) Relates to #2- do we consider signning some form of protection pact with GoW, that would free them from worrying about the other Bobian(s) while we deal with Lego. I'm thinking against this, as it seems to me they would benefit a whole lot more from this kind of agreement, and the liability is great.

Issue #1 needs to be discussed first, of course, and is the most pressing issue for them.

	05-07-2003 23:31									#142
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quote: Originally posted by zeit 1) NAP or limited NAP with GoW- since we'll probably not be fighting GoW, even if its them with RP or ND against the other Bobian. We have reasons to decide against it, especially when how unfortunate it would be if the existence of such NAP is discovered.

A mutual secrecy and denial clause is required.
Anyway, GoW can tell another civ that we have a NAP (with malicious intent or for other reasons) whether or not we actually have a NAP with them.

quote: 2) Alliance against Lego- taking out those who would become the top dogs if letf alone is a worthy goal, but of course this requires alot of trust, secrecy, and risk. I personally feel like this will be a game breaker for us- making sure Lego will not be able to win.

I don't trust GoW much... and besides, we already have a very profitable middle-term future plotted out with Lego by our side.
It's very important that we raise this issue often during chats and that we discuss this and say how much we feel that Lego should be weakened, because this is what the other civs expect and want to hear (if they don't hear it, they'll suspect us immediately for trying to pull something off). But let's not actually agree to something such as a joint military invasion of Lego Land in the near to middle-term future.

quote: 3) Relates to #2- do we consider signning some form of protection pact with GoW, that would free them from worrying about the other Bobian(s) while we deal with Lego. I'm thinking against this, as it seems to me they would benefit a whole lot more from this kind of agreement, and the liability is great.

You mean an MPP?

	07-07-2003 01:49									#143
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quote: Originally posted by zeit 2) Alliance against Lego- taking out those who would become the top dogs if letf alone is a worthy goal, but of course this requires alot of trust, secrecy, and risk. I personally feel like this will be a game breaker for us- making sure Lego will not be able to win.

I don't share this view... I mean, talk about alliance is great, and I wouldn't stop chatting (it might take away the pressure from us, if Bob is invading Lego), but if Lego remains peaceful, they have no chance of winning. They can only win by spaceship, and this game won't go that far, IMHO. Whoever wins will have a large territory on Bob, if not the whole of Bob...

DeepO

	07-07-2003 02:01									#144
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You know, that's pretty interesting. We should mention that to the Bobians sometime, so that they'd become more afraid that Lego might invade and hopefully less afraid that we might. Of course, we should not mention that until after the war on Bob, or the Bobians might get too wary of Lego and unite instead of fight each other.

	07-07-2003 04:06									#145
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Let them keep thinking Lego is the defacto winner if they really are. If we convince them that Lego has to invade Bob at some point to win, then we are convincing them that we have to too.

	09-07-2003 23:34									#146
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I'm tryingto get another chat goine- to get whatever it is we want to rolling (we should find out what we want, as it will certainly help ). We could use a chat to get some ideas into GoW's mind and see where it leads- it certainly looks like the directions we're taking right now.

	09-07-2003 23:38									#147
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I think everyone knows where I stand.

-Arrian

	09-07-2003 23:53									#148
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quote: As you say, I feel both our teams are really working towards the same end, and that will keep us cooperating. At least until Lego is no longer an issue, that is . We both would like to win after that, and such things would be expected.

Have you noticed this?
He's talking about post-taking over Bob. Either he's a really good liar, or he is in fact thinking that we have a mutual interest and wants to go on with this.
This might actually work... :crossing-fingers:

	10-07-2003 16:52									#149
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I think we should all read the chat log cery carefuly. Remember, GoW doesn't presume that GS' ambassador has any real "power" in GS. They already know how this team is working, and that we have no real "leader". That's why I think them choosing words like: "fate" (along with "entwined"), aren't just attempts at seducing us, but could actually represent a desire for future cooperation, in a deeper level. Otherwise I find it strange that they worked so hard at convincing a measly ambassador...

Of coursse, a good liar actually believes his lies are true, at least at some level of consciousness- but still, we mustn't take things lightly.

The technicalities need to be settled- what time is good for you?
UnO has suggested 0300 GMT saturday or sunday.

	10-07-2003 16:58									#150
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3 GMT? wow... add a couple of hours of chat, and the sun will be shining again

I want to join in, but could only make it on Sunday. And I don't intend to say much

DeepO