10-02-2004 06:46									#61
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One factor not yet mentioned is Vox.

It will be interesting to see how lego plays it. So far they've only given vox techs that everyone else has. Will they do the same in the future, or will they pull them up to the industrial age as soon as possible? If they pull them up, there's a 66% chance they will get a tech that we need, either steam or medicine, thus reducing our cost. With any luck it will be medicine. But if they wait to pull vox up, trying to avoid cheapening the tech for us, it nearly nullifies getting the tech at all. An interesting dillema for them.

	10-02-2004 07:00									#62
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quote: Originally posted by vmxa1 It seems to me that no one in their right mind will trade us Medicine, unless they are up against the wall. That is a gateway to ToE and allows metros. They know that as long as that is not researched they are in the running.

I think it's unlikely too - unless a 3-way deal saw GS, ND and GoW work on Nat, Steam, and Med together. Such a deal could slow Lego down nicely.

Lego haven't yet researched Economics, and they've 9 turns to do it before Sistine if they want to switch to Smiths. So, they have to start within 5 turns. However, they want Mil Trad too, which is presumably why they've not got Physics yet.

Assuming they finish Mil Trad and Economics within 9 turns, switch to Smiths and start their GA, they'll still have 3 techs (12 turns) before they get to the IA, and can only do two more in their GA which would be Steam and Nationalism, unless they're sure they're not going to be attacked. They'll have a ton of gold to spend on their Cav and Rifle upgrades, but we'd be nearly finished on Electricity by then, perhaps with Medicine in the bag, and prebuilds hovering.

If they don't build Smiths, they can forget Econ (we assume they have Magellan in a Palace prebuild), slipstream Phys-Mag-ToG at 4 turn, complete Magellan and have their GA a bit later. If they have a sea-wall they can forget Nat and fly straight for ToE with GA prebuilds starting later than ours, and we're in a race.

I don't see any one else getting ToE. ND have almost no large cities and I'd be surprised if GoW made a shot at it. 600 shields is 30 horsemen to them.

So the bottom line - I think Smith's would be not-the-best move for Lego. Especially if Magellans is coming.

	10-02-2004 07:05									#63
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel One factor not yet mentioned is Vox. It will be interesting to see how lego plays it. So far they've only given vox techs that everyone else has. Will they do the same in the future, or will they pull them up to the industrial age as soon as possible? If they pull them up, there's a 66% chance they will get a tech that we need, either steam or medicine, thus reducing our cost. With any luck it will be medicine. But if they wait to pull vox up, trying to avoid cheapening the tech for us, it nearly nullifies getting the tech at all. An interesting dillema for them.

I forgot about Vox's free tech in the above analysis. Damn! that puts them Lego back in the ToE hunt even if they detour for Econ.

	10-02-2004 08:27									#64
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I admit I do not have a clue as to what they have on Lego, but..

The stuff I have seen and read makes me doubt that the have put enough resources into making ships to have a really solid blockade in place. That is a lot of land to try to cover.

Before rails are up they will have to be exposed in some locations. If they had spent enough to have a good blockade and troops to defend all the land, they would not be in such good shape on research.
I just don't think they can do all of those things at once. It is easier for us as Stormia is much smaller. As I understand it they had nealry nothing in the way of troops when the war broke out.

	10-02-2004 14:46									#65
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They have wide spacing with untamed jungle in their core, waiting for hospitals. This will hamper their mobility, and perhaps they went for nav to establish pickets early. We might meet some if we sail over and have a look after Magnetism.

	10-02-2004 22:56									#66
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EDIT: this info is based on the changes I suggested for Arashi in the T175 thread.

Arashi has 16f in the box, btw. At breakeven for food, it produces +19spt. At -1fpt, it's at 21spt. It currently has 90s (T175).

It needs 510 shields to get to ToE.

We don't know what the situation will be once we get Steam Power, but I did just work it out and using the mountain instead of the irrigated desert for 8 turns shaves off 1 turn from the ToE prebuild. However, since we don't know exactly what the rails situation may be, I think we ought to work the mountain for 15 or 16 turns (I'm not sure when starvation would occur - once the food box gets down to zero, or the turn after) and then switch over to +19spt. By that time, we should have Steam and be able to do extra MM to cut more time off the build.

-Arrian

	12-02-2004 21:07									#67
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Thoughts on competition for ToE from GoW, based on the embassy we established last turn:

1) Imperial City is currently set up for 27spt (28 -1 to waste), but is capable of a couple more.

2) When we established the embassy, it had 27s in the box.

This means that, absent WF changes and/or RR production boost, Imp City will hit 621 shields in 22 turns. It is rather likely, however, that WF changes and/or RR boost will drop that to 21 turns, possibly a bit less.

Our current ToE prebuild situation is this:

Arashi, on T175: 90s in box, 21spt. It can sustain that level of production for 15-16 turns before it starves. We should probably figure out when a city starves: when it hits 0 food, or once it goes 1 turn past 0 food with negative food intake. Anyway, after 16 turns of 21spt, we're at this:

426s. The city now drops to 19spt, and requires 10 more turns to cross 600s, for a total of 26 turns. Obviously, if we can boost production (or actually, probably food and do some WF shuffling for higher shield intake, because that's faster than RRing mountains), we can shave a turn or two off. But we're currently running 4 turns behind GoW's prebuild. We must make sure that the tech pace is slow enough that they CANNOT get to Sci Method sooner than our prebuild is ready. Right now, that means we must have 26 turns from now until Sci Method. As things currently stand, I'm estimating 28 turns to SM, so that's fine.

GoW's prebuild does require that they have a 600-shield item to use once they cross 400s. This means the Sistine or Universal Suffrage. They will cross 400s in 14 turns. I don't think anyone will have Industrialization at that time. The Sistine, however, may still be out there. We cannot assume it won't be.

Anyway, the way I see it, the KEY to the timing of this thing is Electricity, not Sci Method, because once Electricity is out there, teams might just drop all cooperation and race for SM. We must research Electricity, and we must not complete it sooner than 20 turns from T175, since our estimate for SM research is 6 turns, and our prebuild is 26 turns. Granted, I don't really see how we could, considering our current research path looks like this:

T177 - Magnetism
T183 - ToG
T189 - SP
T197 - Electricity
T203 - Sci Method (this requires a trade for medicine)

Frankly, so long as we stay ahead of Lego (ay, there's the rub), we really don't want to race ahead too fast, because we have a Hoover prebuild to deal with, and we're a tad short on shields for that one.

-Arrian

	12-02-2004 22:08									#68
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Turn 176 is Magnetism - this one. ToG falls in 4 turns.

Then at current output, at our break-even of 70% producing ~420 bpt , that's Steam in 7, (Medicine in 6), Electricity in 8, and Sci Method in 6. Total : 21 without Med, 27 with Med.

T176 - Magnetism
T180 - ToG
T187 - Steam
T195 - Electricity
T201 - Sci Meth


With 2 science wonders and another 2 libraries we reach around 480 bpt, that's Steam in 6, (Medicine in 5), Electricity in 7, and Sci Method in 6. total : 19 without Med, 24 with Med.

T176 - Magnetism
T180 - ToG
T186 - Steam
T193 - Electricity
T199 - Sci Meth

There is a faster option than Arashi though - Tempest. The older plans would have had it slowing down, waiting for ToE. It can reach 600s in 16 turns. It means sacrificing Newton - losing a wonder in return for safety on the ToE.

We might consider saying to GoW that we can beat them to ToE with a tech deal or not, so don't bother competing. It's hard to argue that GS want to go Steam - Electricity and trade for Medicine and pretend we're after anything else. So if we're going for that deal, we have already come clean.

GoW are on Mil Trad while we're on ToG. We'll be a tech ahead of them. That should give us the room we need.

	12-02-2004 23:12									#69
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Hmm. And then if we leave Arashi prebuilding on a "Palace" whilst a very slowed-down Tempest does ToE...

Let's say T200 for Sci Method, and ToE completes that turn. At this point, Tempest is at 405 shields.

Hmm... Copernicus completes on T182. We will have ToG prior to that. If we are going to turn Tempest into ToE, then should we complete Copernicus or Newton in Hurricane? Does it matter? I guess Copernicus.

So on T181 (one turn prior to completion), Hurricane switches to that actual build, freeing up the Palace for elsewhere. Tempest can use the Palace, and Arashi can use the Great Library.

EDIT: Arashi was at 95 shields on T175, IIRC. Now producing 21spt for 16 turns (T175-191), which gets it to 336s. Then it drops back to 19spt unless we can have some rails up by this time. Either way, by T200, it will be over 500 shields. This is a problem. If we're using the Palace for Tempest's ToE prebuild, what are we going to do with Arashi?

-Arrian

Last edited by Arrian on 12-02-2004 at 23:26

	12-02-2004 23:23									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian 1) Discover Sci Method. Go in through tech tree screen and select Atomic Theory as next tech. 2) Get to F1, switch Tempest to ToE. 3) Switch Arashi (capped at 400s, loss of 5?) to Palace.

is it legal to do that, break into the city build list via sci screen? Ican't remember if someone raised a stink about that issue or not. Might need the eye.

	12-02-2004 23:25									#71
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It can be done.

	12-02-2004 23:26									#72
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quote: Originally posted by Trip It can be done.

1. Good news
2. That's a bit creepy trip

	12-02-2004 23:27									#73
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Major editing above. And I assumed it was legal, considering the number of times Nathan used it during the Voxian war, which I know impressed the Eye

But, given the fact that my original writeup was totally wrong, it doesn't matter. Arashi is producing 21spt, and will later drop to 19 once its food box runs dry. That's averaging 20spt, which means it will throw down 400s in 20 turns, but it's already above 90 (95, IIRC), meaning it only needs 15 turns to cross 400 shields.

If we use Tempest on ToE and Arashi for Hoover, we need another prebuild. We need Industrialization.

-Arrian

	12-02-2004 23:28									#74
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I see...

























EVERYTHING!

	12-02-2004 23:46									#75
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More Arashi thoughts...

Started a Bank on T170. 5 turns of 19spt = 75s last turn. Then it was switched to 21spt. So 96s this turn (T176), right?

15 more turns of 21spt = 315s. 315 + 96 = 411. Back down to 19spt (possibly not, given RR's if we have coal), for 10 turns = 601 shields. That's 25 turns from now, T202.

Our current estimate for Sci Method *with a tech trade* is T199-T200.

Lego, meanwhile, still don't have Physics. Even if they get it later this turn (they play after us), they will need 4 turns for ToG, 4 for Mag = 8. Then they give Vox needed techs, and if it's bad for us, Vox gets Medicine or Steam. Let's assume that for now. Research of the other one is 4, plus 4-6 for Electricity (assume 4), plus 4 for Sci Method = 20 turns (effectively 21 turns, since they are after us in turn order), for T196. Potentially 3-4 turns before we get there, and potentially 6 turns before our Arashi prebuild is ready.

Hmm.

Steam Power is projected for T186 if we go ahead and finish both science wonders. At that point, Arashi is at 306s. IF we have coal, we can start RRing with a worker horde here. The question is what can we boost the shield count to, and how fast? No, better yet, the question is what do we need to do with the shield count to shave off turns?

600 - 306 = 294. 294/21 = 14 exactly. T200 completion of ToE, right in line with our tech speed, and all we need do is RR one irrigated tile to keep the city from starving, so it can stay at +21spt.

What is needed for 13 turns? 23spt average. 12 needs 25 spt average. Beyond that, we're getting well ahead of our projected tech pace.

So if we have coal, I figure we can finish ToE in Arashi on T199 or T200, right in line with our tech projection.

The problem is Hoover (Tempest).

Tempest, @19spt, IIRC, finishes Newton in 7 turns (T183). It then starts on the prebuild from HELL. It needs to pull together 800 shields. That's 40 turns at 20spt average. Even if we get the average up to 25spt, that's 32 turns. T183 + 32 = T214.

Hrm.

I think I'm giving myself a headache.

-Arrian

	12-02-2004 23:55									#76
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[heresy]

Is Hoover worth building on Stormia?
Is it worth the denial to Lego/Bob?

[heresy]

	13-02-2004 00:01									#77
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I'd say so. It is mostly denial value, I admit, since most of our big shield producers are on rivers and thus can build Hydro Plants (Hurricane, EotS, Tempest, Arashi). 4 Hydro Plants = 800 shields, right? So that's breakeven, but we get free maintenance too, I believe.

But the denial value is a biggie. Imagine the value of Hoover to Lego, ND or GoW!

I think it's worth it if you think about what us building it will do to the "production gap" we face (mmm, thinking Strangelove now). That production gap is going to keep widening, EVEN IF we build Hoover. But if somebody else builds Hoover, we're facing a massive production gap.

THEY'RE STEALING OUR PRECIOUS BODILY FLUIDS! WE MUST CLOSE THE PRODUCTION GAP!!!

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 00:03									#78
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Having said all that (or did I rave it, rather than say it?), ToE is the more important wonder for us. It will rocket us ahead in tech just as Lego's GA is finishing. We can then slow our research down and rush assist things (factories) and start worrying about fielding enough infantry and artillery to fend of amphibious assault.

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 00:05									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Lego, meanwhile, still don't have Physics. Even if they get it later this turn

They can't get it for another 2-3 turns. They only completed Navigation last turn. Also, we can't rule out the chances of them doing MT. They might want to intevene on Bob if it kicks off post-Cav, and do they have a sea wall on Vox? We don't know, but they must be paranoid about what's next.

	13-02-2004 00:14									#80
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Ah, thanks for that Cort. They had Nav for the first time last turn (their T174)*. Assuming they went for Physics at 4 turn pace, they get that on T178. Mag +ToG at 4 each brings it to T186. Steam/Med + Elect + SM at 4 each (absolute worst-case) brings it to T198. Of course, getting Elec in 4 means pulling down over 800 beakers/turn. I bet it's more like 6 turns.... T200.

Hoo-ah. This one could be close.

-Arrian

* - their T174, since they play after us, we didn't see it until T175.

	13-02-2004 01:30									#81
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Maybe I am a dirty old man, but the picture made me thing of something other than an eye.

	13-02-2004 01:33									#82
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reminded me of a red x

	13-02-2004 01:38									#83
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I still see it has a very hard task for Lego to blockade all that land. So they may want calvs to get that extra move for defense as well as any option to get in on any Bobian war.

Steam (if they have coal) will take a long time to get up rails all around the key locations. They may feel it is too risky to by pass MT.

	13-02-2004 01:42									#84
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Well, a combination of a few picket ships and their knights is probably enough to cover the coastline for now.

And they MUST have coal. Big continent, lots of jungle tiles. Yeah, I know, we should've had saltpetre based on the composition of our land, but our continent is little.

-Arrian

	14-02-2004 06:57									#85
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I'd like to compliment the team re GW planning.

Sorry I haven't been around the last month, but man, lemme tell ya, you guys know that I am pretty familiar with the discussion history of things Civ3, and I have NEVER seen the intensity of thinking surrounding GW builds that is in this private forum!

Jesus, you guys made my head spin! To be honest, as I was trying to catch up anyways, I sorta gave up on all of the turn / beaker / 'RRs kick in' counts, and have just tried to get straight what we really want to snag and which are most likely when.

Heckuva job is what I say, heckuva job.

	17-02-2004 00:16									#86
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just to make something clear which I'm sure you all know: every tile RRed is 1 spt more... before waste. I'm not sure if the city tile is automatically RRed, but I think so. Arashi would get 12 spt more I think (it has our FP), Tempest gets 10 or 11 spt more if fully improved. That means we get to those 25 spt figures easily, if enough workers are available (which becomes a problem, as we're too fast for our pumps).

It should be enough to ensure we get to Hoover once we build the ToE (oh, and as GoW, ND or Lego could have a palace prebuild going for 20 turns, this is far from certain). We should not detour to rubber, as the beaker cost of rep parts is a lot lower then atom theory. Lego cannot get to that tech in 4 turns, even in GA, and even if they have 2nd researcher cost... we're relatively safe there.

The rest of the discussion is going good, we should be first to research SM, and have a prebuild ready at that precise time, if we have enough workers... nobody should be able to compete here, if we give them 1 turn, we should anticipate losing it (to a GL even). There simply is no room for mistakes, we know that at least Lego has been planning wonder prebuilds all along...

DeepO

	17-02-2004 01:03									#87
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It's only mines that give an extra shield.

Arashi is good for ToE - though I believe we'd be safe with Hoover in EotS, building up to 400s via GLib then another 10-11 turns post Electronics- as long as the war goes ahead and Lego are forced to divert.

I'd rather do that than sacrifice Newton to another Civ in Tempest.

	17-02-2004 01:19									#88
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No it's not. For every RRed irrigated tile, one irrigation can be switched to a mine. Because in none of our cities more food is necessary (for the moment, before hospitals), every RR gives 1 spt. But, in case we have lots of irrigation, we need to change that to mines, at greater improvement cost, of course.

The only exceptions are in cities where we can't manage more mines, because of floodplains. But last I remembered, we don't have many of these cities... so every RR is one more spt. (before waste)

Sweet isn't it?

DeepO

	17-02-2004 02:22									#89
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That is the way to go (mine the irrigated tiles) when we can, but it will not be top priority in any cities, other than wonder builds.

I would think getting rails to all cities and around the island would come right after wonder cities. We could divert some workers to that purpose down the road (once we know no attack is coming for a while).

	17-02-2004 04:15									#90
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IIRC, it is better efficiency wise to RR 2 irrigated grass or plains, and convert to a mine on one of them, then it is to RR 2 hills or mountains. Something to keep in mind when RRing.

Of course, wonder cities first, the rest later. And in between, a RR from South to North, to make sure we can transport what we want asap.

DeepO