28-01-2004 05:08									#31
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aargh! wrong thread again.

	29-01-2004 04:53									#32
	Beaker Counts T167 - 520AD Put an end to popups!

Chemistry
Base Cost : 60
Full Beaker Cost : 1440
Current Cost : 1015
Devaluation : 30%

Music Theory
Base Cost : 40
Full Beaker Cost : 960
Current Cost : 768
Devaluation : 20%

Economics
Base Cost : 56
Full Beaker Cost : 1344
Current Cost : 1344
Devaluation : 0%

Navigation
Base Cost : 56
Full Beaker Cost : 1344
Current Cost : 1210
Devaluation : 10%

Democracy
Base Cost : 68
Full Beaker Cost : 1632
Current Cost : 1696
Devaluation : -10% Huh? This must be what NYE found.

So aside from the Democracy wierdness (we should ask Vox about that) it looks like Economics is unresearched, but Navigation is. We should check previous turns for the Nav count.

Is Lego about to build Magellans?

	29-01-2004 05:50									#33
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In 7 turns time Hurricane gets use of EotS-9. This should have the following effect and deliver the wonder in the same number of turns as now with its -1fpt.



EotS' Bank is due in 7 turns, so hopefully we won't lose anything on that build either

	02-02-2004 05:35									#34
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Ok maybe you guys can expain this to me. First how do you come up with your discounted number?
What is the method used to get your current cost?

I have been fooling around today (instead of playing much) with a spread sheet to try to get the values.

I am seeing the current value a tad higher than the flat cost should be? The expample I am looking at is a C3C game where I have two civs with contact and the tech knowledge I am researching. Seven civs in the game still.

I mean if I have a start value and a current vlaue, I can see how to determine a discount percentage, but I am not sure I have either of the values needed.

Here is the xls I am using.

	02-02-2004 05:38									#35
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Hum I could not find a browse to attach it?

here is the link to it:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...794#post2683794

	02-02-2004 07:43									#36
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Here's the xls I used.

I don't know how the map size and no_of_civs affect the multiplier - all I know is that this game (regent) has a multiplier of 24.

I set the slider at each %, and noted the 'Science' total in the Expenses section of the F1. Multiply by the number of turns showing for the beakers spent to reach the tech at that rate. The lowest is the nearest. (The exact amount can be worked out by making entertainers in cities to lower the commerce and science until the turns increases.)

Compare the lowest value (or exact amount if available) to the full cost for the % devaluation.

	02-02-2004 08:01									#37
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Map size is 240 for Std, 320 for Large 400 for Huge.
Cost factor is 10 for the three lowest levels, 9 for Mon, 8 for Emp, 7 for Demi, 6 for Deity and 4 for Sid.

I will take a look at the one you mentioned.

The slider only tells you how many beakers you will generate. Times the number of turns give a rough count, but it is not the exact count (I don't think).

	02-02-2004 08:09									#38
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The number of civs in the game is an direct function for the human. As it goes down (only way it can go) the cost of tech goes down as well.

The number that know a tech and you know is an invrse function. The more you have the lower the cost to you.

	03-02-2004 19:40									#39
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The original estimates were recorded here .

quote: The following model makes all sorts of assumptions, but we have to start somewhere. We know Banking will take us 3 turns. Chem will take us 6 turns at current rates, but will fall to 5 as GoW/ND will surely get it before us. By the time we finish Chemistry we will have another ~ 40 Scpt from Uni's in EotS and Arashi, and three post-aqua boom towns. Physics needs 1536, and 310 Scpt can do that in 5 turns. ToG needs 1632, needing 6 turns So 19 turns to ToG and Newton -which times well with a 20-turn build in Tempest starting next turn if we want that. If we get Copernicus and Newton at this time, that's another 50 Scpt and more aquas coming in, totalling say 380 Scpt. This leaves Magnetism (1632) in 5 turns and Metallurgy (If we have to research) it in four turns, hitting the modern era in 29 turns with 380 scpt. Steam (2880) could then be completed in 8 turns, Electricity (3360) in 9 turns, Medicine (2400) in 7 turns and Scientific Method in 7 turns. Total (without Industrialisation (2880 in 8 turns)) = 8 + 9 + 7 + 7 = 31 turns. So by these calculations, with no trading or devaluations except Chemistry and Metallurgy, we can get Scientific Method in 60 turns from now, (adding another 8 turns if we want Industrialisation on the way) and 23 turns from discovering Steam.

	03-02-2004 19:44									#40
	T168 Revised ToE plan Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: What's changed is that now, T182, we only have 3 techs to research to reach the next era. We can do Physics in 4 turns, burning some money (-76gpt, total ~ 300g) at 80% sci, but we can do Magnetism & ToG in 5 turns each at 70% @-30gpt ~ 300g and still have 100g plus 300g from GoW on the Physics deal. So, 14 turns till the Industrial Era. 8 turns less that the original estimate Add the 31 turns to Sci Meth from the above model is 45 turns. If we allocate Tempest's mines to the shield-starved OG and WW, and put it on a Palace prebuild it drops to 43 turns. So, slowing Tempest right down could see it as a ToE prebuild, with 85s on the board. However, if we go ahead and suceed in putting Newton in there in 15 turns, that leaves 30 turns at 21spt = 630 shields. Very nice, and no need for rails. If we were to trade for a modern tech, or if Lego build Copernicus before us, then Tempest could be the prebuild for ToE, otherwise Tempest starts it after Newton. The Hoover prebuild is a lot more tricky. We only have one large shield-store, but EotS could build into the GLib up to 400 shields, needing another 400 for the Hoov. If we got Industrialisation from somewhere there might be the Uni Suff available fro the Hoov.

	09-02-2004 22:10									#41
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9 turns until Newton's in Tempest. We are 6-7 turns from the Industrial Age.

Given our current output, plus the boost we will get in 8-9 turns with 2 science wonders completing (providing we get them, of course), does your estimate of 31 turns to Sci Meth hold? Even if it does, we may be able to trade a bit and get there even faster. But let's say 38 turns to SM for now.

So in 9 turns, Tempest starts prebuilding @ 21spt. 38-9 = 29. 29 turns * 21spt = 609. And that's not counting boosting production via rails if we have coal.

Where is Hoover going, though? Do we maybe have a better place for a ToE prebuild (EotS?), allowing Tempest to do Hoover (factory first, then long prebuild)?

-Arrian

	09-02-2004 22:19									#42
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31 turns is too high now. I think we can do Steam in 6 - we should manage around 420bpt. We could probably include Indust and get to ToE around the same time. We're getting Magnetism in 4, and perhaps ToG in 4 too.

	09-02-2004 22:21									#43
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what are the two techs we would take from ToE?

I assumed previously that it would be atom theory and electronics, but it might be more prudent to wait until we are finished with the hoover prebuild to discover it.

I think we should take atom theory and rep. parts, for the worker boost and to see if we have rubber. If we don't have rubber, then we can detour to nationalism (hopefully by then devalued) after we get electronics.

	09-02-2004 22:37									#44
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Good point. The usual two-step goes without saying in SP, but if the Hoov prebuild is behind anyway, knowing where the rubber is before Electronics could be valuable. I can just imagine see some rubber on south Bob but none at home.

It would be assumed that we'd take Electronics, but if the others were at war, raising cash, and didn't have Electricity they wouldn't know that we'd got Rep Parts until it was too late, and give up on Hoover.

	09-02-2004 23:05									#45
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Where is Hoover going? EotS?

Is 420bpt with or without the science wonders, Cort?

If our expected output is 420/turn, that's Steam in 7, Medicine in 6, Electricity in 8, and Sci Method in 6. 27 turns, give or take.

Using the numbers you posted above, we would need to put out 480bpt to get Steam in 6. 480bpt gets Medicine in 5, and Electricity in 7, Sci Method in 6 (?). That would be 24 turns to Sci Method.

There is little point in going that fast, however, since our ToE prebuild (in Tempest) won't be ready for another 38 turns. Hmm. That's a long time.

Maybe we need to consider dumping Newton's in Tempest in favor of a more aggressive ToE prebuild.

-Arrian

	09-02-2004 23:32									#46
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Er, I'll check ...

	09-02-2004 23:41									#47
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Right, that 420 is without the science wonders.

We're on 405bpt@70% at the moment, with 2 science wonders and five libs coming. That lot should take us to about 480.

	09-02-2004 23:45									#48
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We might not manage to keep 70% up, though, there'll be a few turns of 60%.

EotS or Arashi were possible Hoov-spots, it wasn't decided. Arashi could get 20+spt and can use a Palace.

	09-02-2004 23:51									#49
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Ok. 24 turns is the fastest we could hope to get to Sci Method without tech trades to assist us. More likely is 25-26 turns.

If we can convince GoW to do a Medicine + cash (deferred, possibly?) for Steam Power trade, however, we could get to Sci Method in ~20 turns.

-Arrian

	10-02-2004 00:28									#50
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So if the speediest ToE is the absolute goal, Industrialisation doesn't get researched, and we slow down Tempest, hoping that GoW will defer Nationalism and research Medicine.

If GoW don't want to do Medicine, we slow down Tempest a bit more and start a Hoover prebuild in Arashi or EotS soon.

	10-02-2004 01:08									#51
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I'm an idiot.

We're not ~20-24 turns from Sci Method, we're ~26-30 turns away.

I was so into calculating the Industrial Age stuff, I forgot about the 6 more turns of medieval research we've left to do.

-Arrian

	10-02-2004 01:39									#52
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Right then, if we let Newton's complete in 9 turns, Tempest would get to 609 shields (ToE) in 38 turns. If we expect 6 turns for the rest of magnetism + ToG, 6 turns for Steam, 6 turns for Medicine, 8 turns for Electricity and 6 turns for Sci method, that's 32 turns from now. If we manage a medicine trade, that drops to 26 turns.

So sorry, 26-32 turns from Sci Method. 38 turns from getting to 600 shields in Tempest if we allow it to finish Newtons. The first question is can we cut 6-12 turns off of that number via railroading? That would mean, I assume, having all the workers we can muster positioned around Tempest at the end of T185 (I'm projecting Steam to be discovered on or about T186). My guess would be we could shave a few turns off, but not 6 and certainly not 12.

Question number two is can we turn another city into an effective ToE prebuild (again, factoring in a boost from RRing)? Can we use EotS? If we did use EotS, what would the prebuild be (can't use the palace, and Sistine isn't reliable enough)? If not EotS, what are our other options? Arashi, perhaps sped up via WF shuffling with Tempest after Tempest finishes Newton?

If nothing else seems viable, we should start planning on slowing Tempest down (8-14 turns worth of slowing down) and using it for ToE.

-Arrian

	10-02-2004 01:45									#53
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Even if we pull all that off, we still need to set up a Hoover prebuild.

I believe this requires Industrialization, not only for a factory, but also for Universal Suffrage, for use as a prebuild.

Hopefully, we can trade for it (Elect for Ind + cash). From the perspective of getting Hoover built, the sooner we get Ind the better. From the perspective of ToE, we can't really afford to detour and research Ind ourselves (unless it's part of a Steam+Ind for Med + Elec trade).

-Arrian

	10-02-2004 02:21									#54
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Hmm, if we go with Arashi for ToE, which will take 28 turns from now w/o RR assistance, then we could turn Tempest into a Hoover prebuild.

Tempest is, if I'm right, at 231 shields, producing 21spt. 800-231 = 569. 569/21 = 27.1. 28 turns.

Obviously, both could be speeded up some w/RRing.

The hitch is that we have no prebuild big enough for Hoover. How big is our Palace again? 600 or 700 shields? Bah, either way it's too small and we need Industrialization for a U.S. prebuild prior to finishing Hoover.

Two options: 1) trade for it; 2) select it as one of the 2 free techs (ouch).

-Arrian

	10-02-2004 03:02									#55
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If we drop Newton, that'll pull the science down by about 20bpt.

We always new the optimimum prebuild timing would be a headache because the tech trades are hard to predict. With war another unknown, other teams won't find it any easier.

The Palace holds 700s, but we'll be using that at first for ToE. All we can do is time a build to 400s at ToE, using the GLib, then take Atomic Theory and Electronics and do ten turns of Hoov and hope Lego aren't nine turns behind.

If we take Atomic Theory and Replacable Parts instead, then we won't have the Hoov for the shields to go in, so we can't build the Hoov in EotS.

	10-02-2004 03:17									#56
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Ok, so we want 400 shields built up somewhere 'round about the time we complete ToE (which right now looks like ~25-26 turns in Arashi, possibly 28 if we have no coal. In which case we're totally screwed, but whatever).

Tempest, then? Starts prebuilding @ 21spt on T183. Reaches 399 shields on T202. It can hopefully get some RR assistance too.

EotS is the other option, I guess. 18 spt there? Cathedral in 5 (4 if we shortrush a pike next turn)? Anyway, EotS would build up 396 shields in 22 turns, which is about right if we get the cathedral out of the way first. 22 + 4 to 5 = 26-27. T200-T201 it would get to 396 shields. That's without RRing changing the shield count.

Overall, I think Tempest and EotS wind up in a virtual tie for completing Hoover, before factoring in what RRing may do to their shield output. That's the next step, I guess. Working out what we can get Arashi and Tempest or EotS to produce via RRing, and to take it one step further, how quickly our workers can do it, assuming they are in position on T186, ready to start RRing around Arashi. If we really want to do it right, we do just enough RRing around Arashi to lower the turns to ToE as much as we can, and then move on to RRing around either Tempest or EotS (whichever is the best choice for Hoover). Hmm, having said that, Tempest is probably the place, because of proximity to Arashi... the workers will be right there already.

-Arrian

	10-02-2004 04:03									#57
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EotS is on 16spt for 5 turns while EotS-9 is lent to Hurricane. That might affect the cathedral's short-rush.

	10-02-2004 04:13									#58
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re: Arashi, turn 174, pasted in from another thread :

quote: Originally posted by Arrian 19spt, 5 turns until Bank. How many shields does it have built up now (76?)? If it starts after the Bank, it needs 37 turns to get to 600 shields (most likely a couple less, due to RRing). Call it 35. Too many, if we expect Sci Method in 26-32 turns. So we would probably want to switch it right now. If I'm right and it does have 76 shields built up now, then it would need 28 turns to get past 600, again likely less due to RRing. -Arrian

The Uni finished in Arashi on T170, so yes, 76s in the can.

So with no tech trades, and no Industrialisation, Arashi is currently on the right trajectory to build ToE.

	10-02-2004 04:40									#59
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This is complicated, and we need to summarise, first, without rails :

We get Sci-Meth in ~32 turns with no trades if we sustain 70% research, which should remain approx break-even with RP's contribution, some rising maintenance but with mkts and banks coming.

If we can trade for Medicine, that falls to ~26 turns.

If Arashi switches from Bank to prebuild, it can reach 600s in 28 turns, timing well with a 26 turn research. If we can't trade for Medicine we can slow it down.

Hoover Dam can be built either in Tempest (instead of Newton) or EotS (after the Bank). Either of these can get to 400s in around T200-T202, around 28 turns from now. If we don't trade for Medicine, they'll need slowing down.

	10-02-2004 06:11									#60
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It seems to me that no one in their right mind will trade us Medicine, unless they are up against the wall.

That is a gateway to ToE and allows metros. They know that as long as that is not researched they are in the running.