 |
| |
|
|
nbarclay
|
 |
Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:24
|
|
Here's my full draft message, in case anyone's still awake to comment on it.
quote:
Greetings BetaHound and Vox Controli,
On the subject of cows and bulls (and what comes from them), our analysts find it almost impossible to believe that you do not already have Iron Working. According to their analysis, Iron Working should cost us twice as much to research as Warrior Code if no nation we know has either. Similarly, Writing should require one third more research than Iron Working. And there are similar relationships regarding the costs of all other technologies we could currently research. Since you are our only in-game contact at present (your suspicions to the contrary notwithstanding), our analysts say that only your having researched a technology should create a deviation between anticipated and actual research costs.
With every other technology we can consider researching, costs follow a consistent pattern. But the cost of Iron Working is lower than it ought to be if you have not yet researched it. The real clincher is that at the rate we can research Iron Working, we ought to be able to research Writing one turn faster than we actually can – unless the contact situation has made Iron Working cheaper. If you are telling the truth, there is some great mystery here by which the assumptions our analysts base their work on is invalid. But I hope you can see why we would be extremely skeptical regarding your claims of not yet having discovered Iron Working. Either you are lying to us, or our understanding of the world we live in is seriously flawed. (By the way, the original analysis was conducted in 2230 BC, but I have since confirmed the figures myself.)
Regarding our own research rate, if you have been watching the Roster of Great Cities, I’m sure you have seen that Eye of the Storm has been consistently at least size 3 and often size 4 on the International City Size Scale for quite some time. Eye of the Storm has not worked land producing less than two commerce in centuries, and Hurricane has sometimes had access to two commerce and sometimes just one depending on priorities of the moment. Add to that the commerce from the city sites themselves (with capitals inherently being especially wealthy) and you can see for yourself that our research rate, although quite rapid, is not impossible. (And I should note that at Sir Ralph’s insistence, we had already started researching Alphabet based on your conditional acceptance of our trade proposal before you sent your final acceptance, leaving us a turn ahead of where we would have been had more cautious policies prevailed.)
Next, in regard to your claim that Bronze Working was worth more to us than The Wheel was to you, the fact that we would have researched Bronze and then Iron ourselves had you not agreed to the deal renders such short-term comparisons irrelevant. On that path, we would have had Bronze Working in plenty of time to build any spearmen we might want, and would be getting Iron Working through our own research about the same time we will get it from you assuming you keep your word. So the true benefits of the exchange are in terms of long-term prosperity, not short-term military advantage, and on that basis, the agreement was clearly in your favor. We, unlike you, sacrificed a turn’s research (and that at our higher research rate) to make the deal work. Further, based on what you have indicated about your own research rate, a trade at equal value saves you significantly more research time than it does us compared with each doing the research ourselves. And that is not even considering the risk on our side and (I assume) hope on yours that you might be able to exchange The Wheel and/or Alphabet for gold and/or additional knowledge. (We never requested a patent on either of those technologies and, in fact, clearly acknowledged your prospects for trading them when we proposed the trade agreement. The patent concept is strictly in connection with trades involving Writing and beyond.)
If you need further assurance regarding the fact that you are the only nation we currently have in-game contact with, I could e-mail one or more of your people a copy of the “Histograph” portion of our bureaucrats’ “form F8” summarizing relative “scores”. [I’d need an e-mail address or addresses, though, since PMs can’t handle graphics.] That would be sufficient to show both that only our two civilizations appear on that form and that the date on the form is current. By the way, in case you are wondering about recent appearances on similar forms from your own bureaucrats, we recently founded a third city. (Alas, shortly after sending out our settler, our glorious capital was struck by disease, but it has since recovered.)
Before I leave the issue of trade deals, there is one final point I would like to make that is causing us a certain amount of concern. When we first approached you to propose the two-stage deal, we conveyed (or at least I certainly attempted to convey) our assumption that you had already researched Iron Working as your first priority. You said nothing to indicate that our assumption was incorrect, and thereby left us to assume that the exchange of Alphabet for Iron Working could be completed just as soon as we completed our research into Alphabet. Even giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming you are now telling the truth that you had not already researched Iron Working, you left us to labor under a false assumption. And while I see the military sense in not revealing your lack of a key military technology, the situation thus created is not ideal for building trust.
At this point, the situation for us has become extremely awkward. When you not only failed to offer Iron Working as requested even though we assumed you already had it, but also failed to provide any other meaningful response to our message indicating that we were ready for the exchange, that left us wondering about the possibility, however remote, that you might renege on your promise. That concern caused us to suspend our research while waiting for the deal to be completed, since if we do not get Iron Working from you, we need to start researching it ourselves immediately (in spite of how horribly distasteful such a duplication of effort is). But the strain of the delay grows greater every turn, and we really need for you to accept our offer of Alphabet and return your offer of Iron Working immediately so that we can get on with our Writing research (which, we hope, you can also benefit from through some sort of future exchange). Unless the deal goes through (or, at the very least, we get an extremely solid explanation for why it does not go through), our government will face intense pressure to write you off as oath breakers and start our own research into Iron Working, in which case the consequences for the relationship between our nations would be less than pleasant. (I am not attempting to threaten here; merely to point out the powerful forces involved in such matters.)
In regard to issues of settling and borders, on a continent as small as this one, it seems prudent to make sure you recognize the importance of making the greatest possible use of the space available. Our city planners are working on a principle they have developed known as the “size 12 principle.” Specifically, cities should be positioned to use all of our land, as much coast as is practical, and most of the sea within our cities’ borders at size 12. That does not allow much room for additional growth should our scientists someday come up with a way to grow cities beyond what a river or lake permits, but we feel that maximizing our gold for science in the meantime is far more important. (And cities built on the “size 12 principle” don’t generally need to start working much if any coast or seas until beyond size 6, which most cities will not be able to exceed until the “aqueducts” certain of our visionaries contemplate can be built.) We strongly recommend that you follow a similar pattern, both to maximize your ability to generate wealth and to avoid possible tensions between our peoples over accusations of “squandering” useful land.
As for whether the northern end of the Spinebreaker Mountains (or Sierra Centralis as you call them) would be a good border, some of your earlier words had given us hope that ours was not the only direction you could possibly expand in. Regarding North Estonia, you said, “And lastly, it connects to another landmass to the east.” If you have another land mass in another direction, can you not do some of your expanding in that direction? We have no other lands within sight that we can expand to, and we had really hoped to expand at least a little north of the mountains. Also, if you have a lake in North Estonia, North Estonia itself ought to be able to support four cities with proper planning. (Eventually, it can regardless of whether you have a lake or not, but we could understand your not wanting to make cities that would have a hard time growing any time in the near future your top priority.)
Sincerely,
The People of Gathering Storm
Nathan Barclay, Chief Economist |
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
 |
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:24
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Sir Ralph
Has anyone noticed this? If they don't mix up east and west, like many do, the assumptions, that our continent borders that of the 3 civs we traded minimaps with, can not be true. In this case, they must have contacted another civ, none of these 3. |
Yes, but we can't tell much of that one sentence, Vox has proven more then once they are not very precise when it comes to wording. The East is unlikely, or there has to be some kind of peninsula warping around North Estonia, but at this point I still believe that there is no landmass connected to our continent, it's just very close.
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Dominae
|
|
A couple of comments on your last message, Nathan (did you send it already?).
1. The second-last paragraph is unecessary. I see three scenarios: 1) they're using a wide city-spacing, which is good for us because we'll be more powerful; 2) they're planning to use tight spacing and are actually building a road network, in which case your comment is superfluous; 3) they're planning to use tight spacing, and are just "reaching out" to a nice spot, planning to backfill later. Only in this last case is your comment justified, and then really what you should be saying is: "do not try to greedily grab land from under us" (said more diplomatically of course). Whether or not we have a right to say this is debatable.
2. Although I think your messages are well-written and eloquent, some people might find them rather long and tedious to read. Given the lengths of Vox's communications compared to ours (apart from the last one from Vox), I'm inclined to think that they're a little annoyed at our wordy communications. Psychologically, this can be very important, as someone who feels put out by having to read something they consider too long will not be as responsive to the content. There is also the fact that being verbose is a mark of elitism, which Vox may not appreciate (nor any other team).
Dominae
|
|
| |
|
|
|
nbarclay
|
|
Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:24
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
Only remark: I really would have liked asking them of their 'deception', explaining the growth of their capital when they supposedly have no water on those plains.
Oh, and I would have said something about the road connecting 8-10 city sites already, which makes their explanation of 'just a settler road' BS. But they'll get the message  |
As I recall, they never said no water, just no rivers. I would classify that as misdirection more than deception, and since we recognized the possibility of such misdirection practically the moment their message arrived, it would be hard to argue that we've been laboring under false assumptions all this time as a result of their choice of words. Besides, I felt like I was already laying it on a bit thick with other concerns about their deceiving us (our difficulty believing they don't have Iron Working, and the fact that if in fact they don't, their silence led us to believe they did).
If I wanted to really pack things in, I could envision four cities on North Estonia plus the bottleneck city, one on the hill 3-2 from the bottleneck and another opposite it at 6-3 from the bottleneck, and then one around where Grog is now and one around our #12 site. That's the nine potential cities closest to their capital (not counting the possibility of expanding in some other direction). But they probably can't fit more than two decent early-game cities on North Estonia; even if they have water, the fact that some of their tiles are hills, mountain, and desert would interfere. And squeezing the bottleneck city and the two others so close together would mean truly awful competition for land tiles - especially for a nonreligious civ that has a hard time building temples to grow cities beyond 9 tiles. (Remember, having a decent number of land tiles for our cities to work was one of our criteria in city planning.) So unless they can expand in another direction, they probably need to go either south or east of Lookout Ridge no later than their fifth city and then backfill areas with no significant short-term growth potential later, and the wheat makes south look a lot better than east.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Dominae
|
|
Nathan, your most recent "personal" response to Jon Miller is somewhat worrisome. Although you indicate that this is an informal communication, you are in fact presenting deals which Vox will probably consider very carefully. This bypasses all the diplomatic efforts here at Gathering Storm, and thus undermines our "unified front". I'm not saying your half-proposals are not good ones, just that the rest of the team may want to have their say before anything is discussed with Vox (officially or no). Dealing with Jon Miller "on the side" could be interesting diplomatically, but then I think the diplomatic school would have to agree to it.
By the way, who is the head of the diplomatic scholia at this time? DeepO?
Dominae
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Dominae
|
|
No feathers ruffled, as long as the need is urgent.
As the one who is playing the turns, I suppose it is your responsibility to ensure that things get done in a timely fashion. It is too bad our diplomatic corps is not available when we need them most though (and I'm a diplomat!).
This is why I do not like Vox's behaviour: they leave things to the last minute, so that we cannot discuss their proposals sufficiently. To me, this is a tactic of 1) the ignorant, or 2) the aggressor. I'll be glad when we have other teams to deal with, so that their inefficiency will not bring us down as much.
Dominae
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Shiber
|
 |
Haifa, Israel
Jul 2002
time: 07:24
|
|
I think Nathan was right for taking the initiative, but Dominae is also right: we must display a unified front, even if Vox doesn't... though their team's name, and constact allusions to the number one, infer that they should be acting otherwise. Do we see first cracks in their team's hierarchy? This could be good news - it means that they're confused, and they may do things that they will regret later as a result of that... but I'm deviating from the subject.
What I meant to say was that this case is an exception, for the reasons that Nathan has specified above. Like I said, I'm glad that Nathan has taken the initiative this one time, but we should find a compromise between meeting short-term goals and conducting fast diplomacy when necessary, and meeting our long-term goals, among which are presenting a unified front and a stable structure and policy.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
asleepathewheel
|
|
listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:24
|
|
I'm trying to wrap my mind around the two vox letters regarding the current situation.
Vox started researching IW but received it two turns later from the 3rd for the wheel. This upset some in vox, due to the wasted turns.
Beta sends us a message saying they haven't discovered IW yet, which JM scrambles to cover the tracks by stating it would have been discovered in two turns, had it not been for the aforementioned trade.
Now the third civ is willing to pretty much give alphabet to vox for free. We are trying to trade alphabet for IW.
What am I missing?
So apparently there is confirmation from within Vox that Betahound is a liar (and not a good one at that)
If I were vox, I would immediately fire betahound (as a scapegoat claiming that he overstepped his bounds)and install a different envoy.
Perhaps we should ask vox if they could tell us if the third civ knows our name. Perhaps that is part of their trade for alphabet, knowledege of GS.
I would bet my life that this third civ is also sick of dealing with these morons and we could strike a molotov-ribbenhoff pact with them or something.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Dominae
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by asleepathewheel
...we could strike a molotov-ribbenhoff pact with them or something. |
Sounds cool; what is it?
Dominae
|
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:24
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by nbarclay
As I recall, they never said no water, just no rivers. I would classify that as misdirection more than deception, |
True... bad choice of words. But I would ask for it, for two reasons: 1) we know if the aquaduct plan can work, 2) call them to reveal what is really going on in their territory.
I think you gave them a very precise map of our surroundings, more then they have given us. Time to do something back.
Re: Vox city spacing: I more or less agree with your analysis, which basically says that road already has 8 possible sites connected, or very close to being connected.The 5th city near lookout ridge would make sense to me, and if they stick to that everything is fine. But their 4th city could easily be placed at #12 too... with the road it only takes 2 turns more to reach it. Of course, it won't be the best strategy in the long term, as corruption only gets worse, but surely would annoy the hell out of me, if they use that city to poprush a barracks, and upgrade their 'scouts' to wreck some of our border cities.
Dominae: No, I'm not the diplo head, and don't want to be either. From the time Meshelic needed to divert attention elsewhere, we are headless. But, so far it seems to be going good, we never had to make very strict decisions, and I think that in case such are needed, the ultimate reponsibility is with Sir Ralph.
That said, I believe the ambassador to a civ needs to have certain rights, and responsibilities. One of those is to make rapid decisions if needed, certainly concerning sending PMs, even up to the point of discussing trades, seeing what is possible on the other team, and after a possible deal was negotiated propose it to both teams for final approval. Ambassadors are in the first place negotiators, although Betahound doesn't really fit that description.
So, in respect to this last PM from Nathan, I fully support his decision to offer it, which does not say anything about whether I agree with what he proposed or not. I do agree, that we should start to more clearly define what an abmassador can and can't do, but asking about proposed trades, voicing personal opinions is certainly something I consider part of the job (and people better tell me I can't do it with RPG and the Legos now if they don't want it, or I asssume it permissable)
Oh, and I really agree on the attitude of Vox, leaving everything to the last minute. We have done our best to get deals to them in a matter that leaves them time to discuss, and they aren't that polite with us. That is no reason to do the same to them, we should only improve our consideration of their problems, but we certainly can ask them to uphold some kind of protocol, or at least consideration to us.
In this same respect, maybe it is good to make the messages to betahound easier to read. As said, I appreciate the diplomatic language, but betahound doesn't seem to think the same way. Why not include the normal message, and then a schematic, point per point plan of what we want to convey with the message (something like: 1) we proposed a deal on alphabet. 2) you give IW and accept 3) next turn, we're happy again.)
Nathan, why are you certain of Lux? They are a strong possibility, but I still see other possibilities... quite a lot of them, actually. Some explaining, please?
In general, there is one point that is bothering me: we are giving too much to Vox. No way are they going to get another deal out of us, we need IW, they promised it to us. Backing out now is treason. We feel strong about this, they should know we do. Other deals can be discussed, but they need to hurry up... writing for their contacts (all their contacts at that time) sounds good, after that we don't need them for research anymore, I'm sure we can find a better tech trade partner. But, if it would pacify them, we can propose another deal: they go for another tech, and so do we, which we promise to trade with them when the time comes. At equal value... no more gifts to Vox, they are draining us. Oh, and I still don't see what use it has to them to deny trades with the best researcher in the game, I can't see any reason for it as they know we'll get another partner easily. Point out to Vox that we will get to our techs anyway, and they can choose to work with us, or not.
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Dominae
|
|
If Nathan is the ambassador to Vox (which DeepO's seems to be implying) then I retract all my recent comments about diplomacy, and proceed to feel supremely dumb.
Even so, I wish the diplomats would have a chance to talk things over a bit. Hopefully other teams will be more gracious towards us and therefore internally give us a chance to do this.
Dominae
Last edited by Dominae on 27-01-2003 at 04:49
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Sir Ralph
|
 |
Long live teh Schwampel!
Dec 2001
time: 06:24
|
|
Regarding their newest message:
We want Iron Working now, and if they don't want to keep their promise, we will have to research it ourselves. Their "tiers" don't bother us, every tech has a cost. Wheel for Bronze was a loss for us, Writing for Iron would be a second. True, gifting Warrior Code to us would even this out, but in this case we would receive Iron Working only after we researched Writing, which is completely inacceptable.
Also we should ask them, why we should believe them, after they betrayed us once. (Find nicer words, but let the fact remain)
|
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:24
|
|
True, we need IW now, but I don't believe they are going to risk not trading it with us. Jon Miller's last notes make it obvious that they are accepting that we are doing better then them (better start pos, my ass... we played for this!), he knows he has to get us in that partnership or the game is over for them.
I wouldn't delay our own research any longer, and go ahead on writing. IW will come, but maybe it is going to take a few more delaying turns from them.
What was very interesting is that they offer us IW now, only if, in 15 turns or so, we give them writing. They trust us! (very important news, that they are more or less convinced we will honor our agreements no matter what). Of course, this also means that they know we aren't going to rush them, and they know they aren't going to rush us. That last offer was more or less a non-agression pact for a limited duration.
I fully agree on keeping to our initial agreement, we agreed on this earlier (both teams), we procede. If their situation changes, too bad, we don't have to take that into account. They had better thought about that earlier.
Let me get this straight:
1) Vox has BW, and is researching IW. They somehow get CB (possibly from hut). They aren't in a good shape, commerce-wise
2) We come along, and offer the wheel for BW immediately, and IW for writing later.
3) Vox trades for IW, wasting research at that point (not a very bright thing to do). Because they are going to waste research, Civ X agrees to give it to them for something 'cheap'... perfect tech to trade: the wheel. Civ X and Vox aren't worried, as they can't reach the other with units now anyhow, so both knowing horses and iron on the map is more important. Note that the waste was completely on their part, we had nothing to do with it
4) Now Vox complains that alphabet is easier for them to get, and that IW costs more... 'forgetting' about this deal being part in a 2x2 tech deal. Further, they complain about lost research..
5) but in fact, what really happened is that our wheel was used for their IW, which they trade again for us for alphabet. They only gave bronzeworking, to get 3 techs, which have served their life as tradeable techs. Sure they can get upset about it, but never do we give in to altering the plan, that whould make us look like complete idiots. You can't blame them from trying, though
6) of course, their problems come from underestimating us in our research pace, and underestimating the importance of getting IW sooner... they're already on the way on their next research, possibly even on writing. If they have to switch now (as it is obvious we will get it first if we race for it), it will be another problem for them.
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Sir Ralph
|
|
Long live teh Schwampel!
Dec 2001
time: 06:24
|
|
We need ironworking now. We need to know, where is iron. Zeits remark about the long road being an iron connecting road and suddenly renewed their claim to settle down till the Spinebreakers could really mean, that there's an iron deposit, which might be the only one in our part of the world. We could remain without iron, if we research writing now.
Send notes, demand, threaten, but get us iron working now. Or else we have to research it on our own, before we begin to research writing. This delays their research as well. Tell them, that we can be either their partners or their competitors and ask what they think is better for them. If they don't give IW now, the deal is void, as is the promise of peaceful intent.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
nbarclay
|
|
Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:24
|
|
Proposed response to Vox:
quote:
I don't mean to offend, but such an obsessiion with tier 2 vs. tier 1 seems to reflect a lack of understanding of the game's mechanics. Alphabet, cost 5 in the editor, is the most expensive of the tier 1 techs. It costs two and a half times as much as Pottery or Ceremonial Burial, and only one sixth less than Iron Working. The original deal was deliberately balanced so that each side would contribute techs with a total cost of 9 in the editor to the exchange. And if that was not sufficient for you, you should have brought up the tier 2 vs. tier 1 issue when we were negotiating the original deal.
Yes, Iron Working and Writing are both tier 2 techs, but Iron Working is only cost 6, while Writing is cost 8. So in your revised proposal, you would be getting the more expensive tech out of both deals.
And while throwing in Warrior Code would balance the values, (aside from our 12 wasted gold from abandoning our Bronze Working research), that is not what we really want. What we really want is contact so that we aren't stuck with you playing middleman where any equal-value tech deal we make with you gives you the opportunity to gain extra profit selling or trading to your other neighbor. Under such circumstances, nominally equal trades are very heavily in your favor. (For example, I can't help but wonder whether you might have traded The Wheel, which you got from us, in order to get Iron Working earlier than you would have otherwise. If so, BetaHound's contention that the deal favored us is completely laughable.)
And your inclination to seek to renegotiate agreements that have already been made only serves to make the situation worse. Even if we make an agreement, can we trust you to keep it? And do we really want to have all of our trade deals filter through a neighbor we are not entirely sure we can trust?
I still see a lot of promise in the possibility of a three-way partnership, but it would have to be a true partnership of equals, not an arrangement where all trades have to go through Vox as middleman. If you attempt to insist on maintaining your "middleman" status, even in the face of offers that would give you significant value in return for giving it up, you might profit temporarily, but the consequences regarding our desire to maintain a long-term trade relationship with you once that monopoly on contact is broken will be catastrophic. That is all the more true in light of the possibility that had you not blocked Grog's exploration earlier, he might have been able to make contact with the other civilization long ago.
Basically, at this point, you have three choices. You can go through with your original agreement. You can accept our new offer (or perhaps come up with a counter-offer we regard as similarly acceptable, although I can't imagine our going for anything that doesn't address the contact situation), in which case your willingness to give up contact will be counted in your favor in future negotiations. Or you can break the deal outright by demanding renegotiation on terms not truly acceptable to us, in which case even if we accept some sort of deal, you will have destroyed all hope for any kind of partnership that lasts beyond the minute we break your stranglehold on contact.
My apologies if this is not worded as diplomatically as it could be, but I want to make sure you understand the truth of the situation. Yes, you might profit in the short term by forcing us to accept a deal we don't like (assuming we don't just give up on dealing with you altogether), but you need to be fully aware of the long-term price that would come from such a choice.
Sincerely,
The People of Gathering Storm
Nathan Barclay, Chief Economist
|
|
|
| |
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:24.
Apolyton Time is 00:24. |
top of page
|
|
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
26-01-2003 09:10
) Sorry if I ruffled any feathers.
|