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Togas
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California
Jun 2002 time: 21:26
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quote:
On to the issue at hand: What exactly do we have to LOSE by talking to GCA? What, will CDG attack us? That's what we're already thinking might happen someday. We don't even have to send it officially- just an email from an underling pointing out some facts. I'd be happy to write it- speaking as a teacher and an administrator in other venues, I can be quite pleasant and diplomatic when it is called for. Even if GCA *is* currently in bed with CDG, that letter will at least make some people go "Y'know....he's right about this....." I can promise you at least that much. At best, it might have GCA launching that attack we're hoping will start between them. Come to think of it, maybe I should talk to Togas about getting some limited role within the FAM. I certainly offer opinions about what they should be doing often enough. |
There's a lot I can say about this proposal. I do agree that there is little risk in this idea, but I also think there is little reward. The main issue with this proposal is that it demonstrates a fundamental change in our diplomatic attitude, one that I'm not sure this team wants to employ.
Presently, we're attempting to employ a polite, friendly, good natured, unimposing, peaceful, honorable facade. Within that facade we can innocently reveal information that will hopefully influence, but directly arguing a position and trying to overtly influence another nation ... and influence them to attack their "friend", goes against our "nature." And it would be showing us for what we really are -- manipulative, deceptive, and two-faced.
In truth, we are extremely Machiavellian. Master Zen in particular was picked as Deputy FAM because of his keen insight and cold hearted nature. BigFree is a vocal Hawk. I'm an avid Diplomacy player, a game that is exceptionally trecherous and manipulative.
But a decision was made early on that we wouldn't show that side to anyone. The attitude of the game was such that if anyone came forward and presented such a manipulative demeanor, all of the other nations would instantly distrust them. Everyone is playing coy and until the diplomatic waters change, we also have to play coy, act noble, pretend to be interested in only building up our peaceful little nation, and mostly stay under the radar.
GCA is in an interesting place. They have two neighbors. They need to trust one of them. They seriously annoyed CFC and even if the two pretend to act nice, there is little trust or friendship between them, and there will likely be none ever as GCA controls a Chokepoint that CFC desperately wants to explore. GCA (if CFC can be believed) has even entered the cultural borders of CFC. The two don't trade techs with each other and it's likely that GCA's immediate plans are to either attack CFC, or prepare for CFC's attack on them.
Due to this animocity they desperately want CDG to be their friends. Even if CDG aren't actually their friends, they WANT TO BELIEVE that they are. CDG has, however, traded with them and given them an abundance of land. CDG hasn't violated their treaties and it's likely that CDG has sold them a story about how they're going north to either attack CFC or Poly. CDG hasn't done anything to annoy GCA and likely has agreements to share in the future and to "band together" against the Civ giants -- Poly and CFC.
GCA doesn't want to fight immortals. They don't want an early war with their spears and swords vs immortals. They probably have no plans to mass units now. They can, instead, rush up the tech tree, develop their nation, grow and strengthen in and beat CFC to Chivalry for the fight they're looking forward to. They're looking ahead -- an early fight now with a neighbor with a dangerous UU and a GA vs their weak units is not what they want, or what they're willing to even consider.
So where's the harm in asking them to consider it anyway? The harm is that we portray ourselves as villains. Even if we're utterly logical and friendly about it, emotionally they have painted CDG as their friend, and we're talking about backstabbing their friend. Only a manipulative evil sort of person would suggest that.
Furthermore, they really want CDG to use those immortals vs us. If they're smart they go to CDG and give them a log, or copy of our correspondence and say "look, Poly is plotting against you!" and then give CDG additional motivation to go kick our asses ... or to belive that they can't leave their rear exposed to us if they plan to sneak attack GCA. And if CDG believes that they can't safely attack GCA without us coming in and attacking THEM, they won't do it.
So what can we do? Trade WMs. Let them draw their own conclusions. Give them information when they ask for it that may lead them to believe that an early attack on CDG is worthwhile. But we have to do this in an entirely neutral, unmanipulative, and innocent way as possible. We have to let them get the evil thoughts in their heads. But if they are too blinded by their desire to be friends with CDG, then there's really nothing we can do to change their mind and change their planning.
--Togas
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Adrian Hon
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Living in Perplex City
Nov 2001 time: 05:26
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An excellent analysis by Togas. It's an interesting situation we have here - as you say, GCA is likely to be very trusting of CDG, to the point of putting its guard down. Consquently, they will be a very soft target for CDG. If GCA ever realises that *they* will be CDG's next target, not Poly (perhaps when we swap WMs) then they may gear up for war. Either way, a war between GCA and CDG seems more than possible - which is wonderful news for us.
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Master Zen
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of naughty
Jan 2003 time: 23:26
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Despite what many people might believe, the FAM actually does have a long term strategic goal with respect with juggling the power balance in the continent. Despite the fact that ideas get bounced around in the chatroom, or some of us post threads analyzing potential diplomatic options (i.e. evil plans), the goals of the FAM are very clear to us. If we differ it is in the means, not the ends.
So, the "end" with respect to GCA is and has always been to avoid getting them entangled in a war with CDG against us. That is, if we are to fight a war, it is preferably against CDG alone. How have we been doing this?
- Acting friendly and listening to them. We try and understand their fears and try and make them feel secure about it. On the other hand, we try and feed them some paranoia with CDG which is countered by our offer of frienship and support.
- Flow of information. We gave them information regarding our embassy with CDG for no cost whatsoever. We have told them we will continue to do so in the sake of warning on whatever hostile move CDG intends to do.
Our policy has been to strenghten our friendship with GCA. To make them feel assured that should CDG attack them that we would support them. And that it would be unwise for CDG to attack us (hint: don't even think about allying with them)
Whatever CDG does, there is not much we can do to change it. However, GCA is the wildcard. If we can make CDG attack them instead of us, our primary goal is accomplished. If we can have them NOT support CDG in a war against us, then our secondary objective is achieved also.
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WhiteBandit
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Southern California
Jul 2002 time: 21:26
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As we know from Trip's chat with CFC, war is looming. Just received a message from GCA. It is confirmed my friends. War is imminent.
Received from Lucky via PM
quote:
Dear people of Apolytonia,
CFC once again sabotaged all possibilities of a friendly coexistance with their inability to talk to us on fair terms. They did not even show up for the meeting, at times they proposed, and their last message indicates that they are ready to declare war against us. Under these circumstances and in light of all CFC aggression throughout the whole history, we have no other choice but to answer with appropriate means.
They took their last chance tonight. In a chat with them we openly told them what was need for a permanent and first official peace treaty. They will discuss that now, but I doubt they will accept it.
We expect them to attack us in their turn today. But there is still a very faint chance for peace.
We know how much you wished for a peaceful resolution, as did we. Yet we will not give in to unreasonable demands by anyone. The initial trigger was certainly on our side, yet the real reasons are as old as contact with CFC itself.
We understand that you cannot endorse our actions at this time, but I´m sure you would at least understand the necessity if you knew all facts.
I hope that you will take a military neutral stand in this matter and that even though our relations might weaken, they will not break apart. Be assured that we will do our best to end this conflict as soon as possible and bring peace and prosperity back to our continent.
Sincerely
Lucky
President of the Gamecatcher Alliance
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Togas
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California
Jun 2002 time: 21:26
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This is some tough bargaining by GC, backed up with those military units CFC told us about a few turns ago. GC is going to press CFC to turn over that iron and that territory. CFC, of course, is going to turn them down. However, given what we've heard from CFC and their big push for alliances, it's safe to assume that CFC is not ready for such a show of force. CFC may be able to bluff/threaten a compromise, but they certainly aren't going to convince GC to back down.
It may be possible for us to find a win-win where each side gets something ... CFC get's that iron city GC gets some additional territory. If GC doesn't get something substatial out of this show of force they'll use force to take it.
While I am very tempted to tell GC their FoS to their face, we need to instead put on friendly, understanding, open-minded facade, listen to their justifications for this territory grab, and then simply and persistantly warn them of the potential consequences, namely that CDG drops in and crushes their northern cities.
The most important thing, "in our minds", is that GC is not ambushed and destroyed by CDG, and no matter what else they tell us we must continue to remind them that it is far more important that they are not crushed by a combined force of CDG and CFC, than that they get that one iron resource.
--Togas
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Fried-Psitalon
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Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002 time: 00:26
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quote: Originally posted by Togas
While I am very tempted to tell GC their FoS to their face, we need to instead put on friendly, understanding, open-minded facade, listen to their justifications for this territory grab, and then simply and persistantly warn them of the potential consequences, namely that CDG drops in and crushes their northern cities.
--Togas |
Bear in mind that we DO NOT KNOW that GC is in fact "FoS." All we know is what we're hearing second-hand. We don't have a world map to even confirm the EXISTENCE of this iron, let alone examine the conditions under which it is contested.
Take care not to choose sides mentally with absolutely no real facts.
As far as that goes, I would actually lean towards us asking CDG to stay out of it, and the win-win is letting the other two beat each other senseless. I think the biggest LOSE for us in this situation is CFC getting that iron- one step towards Riders. GCA gets no real long-term benefit from their second iron; if anything, we should support GCA's efforts to deprive CFC here!
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Togas
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California
Jun 2002 time: 21:26
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F-P, please review the chatlog with Lucky from Thursday and then reread his most recent PM and you'll see what I'm talking about. It's far more complex than one side being right or wrong, and I certainly am not taking sides. When you receive a PM like what Lucky sent to us, ringing with whoa and tragedy and feigned reluctance, you can easily tell what's going on. They're trying to soften the impact of their decision to fight CFC. When the propoganda machine starts up you know something is cooking.
Update on the situation:
In chat today with Octavian X, MichealisRex & LouisXXIV and a few others, the impending war was discussed. Logs have been posted if you wish to review them.
OctavianX has expressed HIS desire for a peaceful resolution, but it's clear that it will be difficult to sell to CFC. The sense I get is that CFC is not prepared to fight, and therefore is more than happy to consider other options, and VERY interested in getting outside pressure and alliances ... it's clear that they do not feel they can fight GC alone.
CDG seems itching to fight, and accidentally revealed the fact by becoming angered that we revealed to GC about the likelihood of CDG attacking GC. This tells us that CDG *certainly* hasn't said anything to GC about it ... they're not trying to pressure GC into peace. CDG preferred that GC would be caught unaware.
OctavianX indicated that CFC will not accept the new peace terms offered by GC. The terms are:
1) Pull back their military units.
2) Give up the Iron City OR do not build a road on the iron
3) Give GC posession of the valley that their units are sitting in, an area that Octavian tells us is a green valley, very fertile, and an area that CFC wanted to expand into.
OctavianX expressed that his nation would be willing to agree to peace under terms that were less harsh than these terms. Therefore opening the possibility of a mediation between the two.
I honestly believe that Mediation is not going to resolve this affair. GC did not heed our last warning when we explained to Lucky why he should move his warrior. HOWEVER, if we play an active and agressive role in the peace process we will set a very positive precedent and should gain some respect and good Will from the nations involved. We may also avert this war, as we do not want it to happen NOW ... we prefer it to happen 30-40 turns from now.
I offered to have my "top diplomat" speak to Lucky and try to make him understand the futility and danger of starting this war, and to try to get him to agree to mediate/negotiate a resolution. Master Zen and WhiteBandit are hereby asked to urgently and persistantly try to contact Lucky and chat with him tomorrow. He needs to be shown and understand that by making such demands on CFC, he is inviting a 2-front war that GC will not likely win. He then needs to be encouraged to come up with a less agressive proposal for the land that they and CFC want.
I ask that WB and ZargonX also immediately try to get GC and CFC to sign a 3-turn Non-Agg pact to give us time to try to settle this.
I ask that WB and ZargonX also try to schedule a mediation between CFC and GC. I will assist in the mediation. Please meet with me in channel to discuss the details of this.
--Togas
Last edited by Togas on 16-06-2003 at 11:11
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Fried-Psitalon
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Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002 time: 00:26
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quote: Originally posted by Togas
CDG seems itching to fight, and accidentally revealed the fact by becoming angered that we revealed to GC about the likelihood of CDG attacking GC. This tells us that CDG *certainly* hasn't said anything to GC about it ... they're not trying to pressure GC into peace. CDG preferred that GC would be caught unaware. |
WHY exactly did we say ANYTHING? I would think that we would want them to catch GCA unaware- GCA is the strongest of the three powers involved there. CFC has pretty much admitted to being a lamb ready for the slaughter; GCA doesn't need any help from us. Besides, immortals marching south are Immortals who won't be guarding the north later. Why did we do something that obviously would have angered CDG when we're trying to keep CDG smiling and stupid for a while longer?
quote: Originally posted by Togas
We may also avert this war, as we do not want it to happen NOW ... we prefer it to happen 30-40 turns from now. |
Again, maybe I'm missing something- why not? It seems to me if they start beating all hell out of each other now, then in 40 turns: A) GCA will have torn up CFC and will be eyeing CDG -less likely- or B) CFC and CDG will have beaten up GCA, and CDG will find itself stretched thin over newly conquered holdings, which would be precisely the best situation.
quote: Originally posted by Togas
He needs to be shown and understand that by making such demands on CFC, he is inviting a 2-front war that GC will not likely win. |
Here we go again: Where do you get this information? In case you missed it, score wise GCA is power #3 taking on an ironless 5 and a tiny, poorly producing 6. CFC is pretty much squealing like a pig for help, indicating they're going to get trashed. I'd call this war even money - and in any case, CDG will have to shoulder the load early, expending military strength, which is WHAT WE WANT.
Togas, I'm not trying to bust your chops, but I'm really unclear on exactly why you're moving in certain directions here, and what your information sources are...
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