11-10-2003 04:50									#181
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree I wonder if GWT or CGN will ask us to spy on the other? A little profit can be made doing so.

Why wait until asked? maybe something to suggest to them: "Hey, for a bonus of 10 gold, we will gladly investigate cities for you.. Interested?"

DeepO

	11-10-2003 05:40									#182
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I'd rather wait until we're asked, rather than directly point out to them that we're the #1 benefactors from a neverending trenchwar between the two.

	11-10-2003 13:18									#183
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I agree with Shiber - until it becomes clear which side is the best to choose, we do NOT want to choose one to offer our help to, netierh do we want to be caught out helping both sides against each other. For the moment we will be friends to both (if approached), and any trades we make will be for Poly's benefit rather than the benefit/detriment of either of CGN or GWT.

	11-10-2003 21:51									#184
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Those discussing the GWT-CGN potential "trenchwar" might be interested in reading the log of my last chat with miccofl. Please consult the FA correspondance thread.

	12-10-2003 22:06									#185
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quote: Originally posted by Shiber I'd rather wait until we're asked, rather than directly point out to them that we're the #1 benefactors from a neverending trenchwar between the two.

I second the motion.

	13-10-2003 06:52									#186
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Simulation mimicking Apolyton attack situation next turn:

http://apolyton.net/upload/files/Tr...lytonAttack.SAV

Simulation mimicking GCA attack situation next turn:

http://apolyton.net/upload/files/Trip/GCAAttack.SAV

CFC Images of Algalord:

Last edited by Trip on 13-10-2003 at 06:59

	13-10-2003 07:21									#187
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Order of Battle from this screenshot:

Horsemen - 4/4, 4/5, 1/4, 1/5, 3/5, 1/4
Swordsmen - 4/4, 5/5
Spearmen - 6 at 4/4
Sword Army - 10/13

E_T

Last edited by E_T on 13-10-2003 at 08:13

	13-10-2003 20:41									#188
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43 hitpoints of 3.5 defense. Ouch.

-Arrian

	13-10-2003 21:03									#189
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If my count from last turn's ending screenshot is correct, we have the following next to Agalord:

13 veteran medieval infs
2 vet horsies
5 catapults
4 vet numidians, 1 reg numidian
1 4/5 warriors, 1 3/3 warrior.

Question: will their units have a chance to heal prior to our next move?

I can't dl the simulation (here at work anyway), but in case there is any doubt, I think we have to hit them this turn. The risk we run by delaying - pikemen - outweighs any boost we might get from adding a few more units to our attack stack.

-Arrian

	13-10-2003 21:17									#190
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian 43 hitpoints of 3.5 defense. Ouch. -Arrian

We've got five cats to use this turn, five chances to take out these walls. Walls have a bombardment defense rate of 8, cats have 4 attack, so the chance that we'll bring down these walls after 5 cat shots or less is ~86.8%.

	13-10-2003 21:18									#191
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Yes. shiber.

Have faith in the Cats, for they shall set you free.

Can I get an Amen from the congregation!

	13-10-2003 21:22									#192
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From the Sim that I (and a couple of others have run), we find the following:

If they don't attack, we don't quite have enough forces to take the city, unless you reload and play exactly a certain way...

If they Attack first, then it's more likely that we will win, but we will still lose our NM's and a couple of MI's in their attack.

Plus, we don't know if they will get any additional forces in that city before we do attack.

It's going to be a close run thing, no matter what. It could be our Waterloo, if we don't watch out.

E_T

	13-10-2003 21:26									#193
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Is there any way to go around their stack and just pillage all other cities they have, without running too much risk ourselves?

	13-10-2003 22:18									#194
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I agree with hitting them ASAP. The threat of pikes is not to be taken lightly - even if our first wave takes out only the six spears, it will be a semi-victory, since that will be six less pikes when GCA reconnects their iron (on a side note... could we somehow pillage that road leading from Algalord southwards?).

	13-10-2003 22:28									#195
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Is there any way to go around their stack and just pillage all other cities they have, without running too much risk ourselves?

We knew we were going to have to fight their armies at some point. This looks like the point. If we try to go around then they will have a chance to continue picking us off with their horses and sword army. I'd personally rather we do the attacking than the defending right now.

Once we do take the city though, we can hope that they've thrown much of their army in the area after us and we can rip through the rest of their lands on this side of BoP. :fingerscrossed:

	13-10-2003 22:30									#196
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We need to hit them this turn.

If not, they will reload until all of their o' is succesful and we are whittled down.

I dont think we can take the southern road this turn. Next we could, if we moved our horses this turn, but hopefully we won't need to.

	13-10-2003 22:37									#197
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We have 5 Catapults to knock the Walls down. The Cats will bombard until the Walls are destroyed, then will stop.

We have 13 units with an attack of 4 and seven units with an attack of 2. 20 units capable of attacking on the next turn, assuming they do not attack first.

The Sword Army will be destroyed (80% chance with 3 MIs) then the remainder of the Catapults will attack. MIs have a 70% chance of defeating 4/4 Spears and an 80% chance against 3/4 Spears.

When all is said and done we should be able to nearly entirely wipe out their force there by committing all 20 of our offensive units. We will probably lose 1/3 to 1/2 of our attacking army, but they will have nothing left, while we will have AGC coming.

	13-10-2003 22:40									#198
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel I dont think we can take the southern road this turn. Next we could, if we moved our horses this turn, but hopefully we won't need to.

I agree. None of our horsemen could get to the road AND cut it this turn. We can just hope that we will take out all their spears this turn (even if we don't take the city). Then all their reason to have a road into the city for pike upgrade would be gone. Perhaps if we destroy most of their defenders they might decide to abandon Algalord and cut roads with the horses rather than leaving them in the city where our next wave would surely take them out. This is supposition on my part, but we might not need to actually take the city to get it out of GCA's hands.

	14-10-2003 00:35									#199
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I also agree with hitting them this turn. Even if we take out only the sword army and the spears, with our reinforcemets arriving shortly, we will be in advantage.

	14-10-2003 01:45									#200
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I wouldn't be surprised if they don't stand. Their odds are better at Catchopolis since it is on a hill and is a city.

In either case, unless they change tactics, I doubt the city will be there next turn.

	14-10-2003 03:57									#201
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Are we planning on getting our GA this turn?

	14-10-2003 04:10									#202
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It's possible that we will already be in our GA when we open the turn. Otherwise, I don't see any way that we could trigger our GA this turn ourselves, unless our MIs attack Algalord and almost kill all the town's garrisons, and we decide to throw a merc or two against some wounded spear.

	14-10-2003 04:12									#203
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I think it will depend on whether we get some odds in our favor (such as having the chance to attack a wounded unit with an NM). With only a 2 attack strength we need to be careful using them as offensive weapons.

	14-10-2003 04:35									#204
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From what I have been lead to beleave, we will have to attack with everything that we have in that one stack, including the NM's. As I have stated above, this one battle will mean a quick defeat for GCA or a long drawn out war that will get no where.

This battle could very well be our Waterloo, if we aren't careful.

E_T

	14-10-2003 05:44									#205
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Honestly, Im starting to think we made a mistake not triggering our GA on turn 1 when we had the chance. I voted against doing so too though, so I share some of the blame.

After looking at that stack behind the walls, I think we will need the productive push to rebuild our losses this turn


Oh and we definately need to give it everything we've got this turn. Only stopping short of total commitment if they have insane luck and we lose all of our defensive units without making a dent.

We *should* at least take out enough of their army for this not to be our waterloo. Worst case, I think we'll end up getting bogged down, I don't see them being able to come for revenge anytime soon either way.

	14-10-2003 05:48									#206
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Pish. Let's not have more talk of Waterloos.

If they attack us, we will counter attack. If they entrench, we will still attack. We have the forces on hand to do the job of destroying most of or all of GCA's army, and we have more close behind.

We have done all that we can to assure victory. Now it will be up to Trip, Lucky, and the RNG. Oh, maybe the Consuls will be in there somewhere too.

	14-10-2003 06:26									#207
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quote: Originally posted by wervdon Honestly, Im starting to think we made a mistake not triggering our GA on turn 1 when we had the chance. I voted against doing so too though, so I share some of the blame. After looking at that stack behind the walls, I think we will need the productive push to rebuild our losses this turn Oh and we definately need to give it everything we've got this turn. Only stopping short of total commitment if they have insane luck and we lose all of our defensive units without making a dent. We *should* at least take out enough of their army for this not to be our waterloo. Worst case, I think we'll end up getting bogged down, I don't see them being able to come for revenge anytime soon either way.

Just a comparison of what things would have been like if we had triggered out GA on the first turn, we would have had 1/3 more forces arriving (not able to fight yet, just getting there) at the front than we currently have.

As far as I'm concerned, the only really bad time for having a GA is while in Despotism/Anarchy and while not being prepaired for a war, like GS was in the PTWDG.

I just hope that we haven;t made a grave mistake in letting our Emotions for "wasting a GA" have gotten the upper hand. I can tell you, It wouldn't have been wasted and I'll try not to waste it when we do get it.

It's a question of Logistics, which anyone should really think about to the fullest point. For instance, If I build Unit A, on turn X, now long will it take for it to get to the front, If the front is at point Y? When can I have the next Unit (Unit B), from that same city, be able to follow it up?? Where will the Front be at when Unit B reaches it? Etc...

The longer your Logistic Train is, the more you have to keep feeding into it to keep it full.

MoI E_T

	14-10-2003 11:02									#208
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I wouldn't be surprised if they don't stand. Their odds are better at Catchopolis since it is on a hill and is a city. In either case, unless they change tactics, I doubt the city will be there next turn.

If they were going to fall back to Catchopolis then they would have pillaged roads and be trying to remove some of the population of Algalord (as they did with IDG and RO). They have an innate love for their own cities despite much greater odds at Catchopolis with hills + river + Pikes.

The climax of the war takes place this turn.

	14-10-2003 11:07									#209
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I really hate this "it could be our Waterloo" talking. I'm not saying that we shouldn't ponder our choices carefully, but where this pessimistic approach comes from? It is not good for the morale. I'm not saying that we should drink the champagne already, but let us keep some optimism.

I bet CGA has moved almost all they got in Algalord and even so we have good chances to destroy them all, or cripple them badly. Even if we lose most of AGA+B, we have almost as many fresh troops coming, while I doubt that they would have significant reserves.

	14-10-2003 17:59									#210
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I'm not being defeatist, just realistic. It's going to be close. Another comparison to Waterloo, is from the winning side. Wellington had remarked, after the battle was won (and Napolian had lost), that "It was a close run thing" one of the closest things that he had seen in his life. THAT is where I'm getting my comparison from.

This battle will be the most decisive battle in the whole war and maybe even the whole game. We should NOT approach this battle lightly, stating that we will simply win (as a few others have recently), but we should fight this battle realizing that, yes we might not win, so that we fight that battle with our brains and then we can win it. The coorlation of forces is such that it could be anyones battle, but it also depends on what they will do between turns.

For when we open the save, before we take our opening shot, we need to be certain that we do what we can, to help insure our victory (except for reloading and playing ahead...), but to support our Consuls and MoW.

E_T